Betting on the TSX

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Betting on the TSX

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I've been gambling long enough to know that trying to beat the stock exchange, much like the racetrack is a mirage in the desert of free money, only present to reel you back in just when you think you've had enough and are prepared to throw in the towel. The trick to making a buck on any trade market, again just like any racetrack is timing. One must approach stock trading or horse capping as one approaches a bank heist, tremendously cautious, amply prepared. Now that you’re in the right frame of mind, the question is what's the winning equation when it comes to robbing a bank? Or in this case a stock exchange? Get in, get the money and get out, as fast as you can, preferably with your own private getaway driver.

Rogers communications the ever growing multimedia hype machine that has had no lack of success in the wireless communication industry, mostly due to ultraconservative Canadian cell phone legislation that until recently has made it impossible for foreign-based competition to crack the lucrative market, well home based companies like Rogers have thrived in the three horse race. Sounds fixed to me.

Bell Canada, with catchy advertising and a strong base of established customers has been the one company capable of keeping pace with the asteroid known as Ted Rogers, President and CEO of Rogers Communication. Bell Canada however has lost a lot of ground in recent time, trillions of dollars in debt, still stuck on CDMA technology and currently on the market for any billionaire with a shirt to lose, Bell Canada certainly seems to be the company under the most duress during the recent influx of foreign-based communication companies like European Goliath Virgin Mobile.

Debt, competition and aging technologies seem adequate reason on their own to wager against Bell Canada in the battle for shareholder returns but an investment that will require at least six months of maturation, to provide even the most meager of returns, for my own seal of approval will require a little something extra . . .

Rogers, gearing up for their first summer in full competition with new faces Koodoo and Virgin maintains an eye on arch-nemesis Bell Canada through the rear view mirror. Having announced a partnership with I-pod creators’ Apple, Rogers will be poised for the release of the widely popular I-phone on their own wireless network sometime in the fourth quarter. If this aggressive Rogers move (becoming the first and for the time being the only Canadian provider authorized to sell Apple's I-phone) is not enough to convince you, say for example you’re a firm believer that Canadian will shun Apples fancy-dancy I-phone in favor of Canadian-based Research in Motion's newest Blackberry, the Blackberry Bold, well have I got news for you. The folks at Rogers in their infinite wisdom have decided to carry both RIM and Apple's latest market entries and with the increasing popularity of smart-phone amongst both students and business professionals I think that’s just that little something extra I was looking for.

Call it a bet, I'll take Rogers Communications (RCI) $43.27 per share to have a greater increase in stock price or in the event of a total market collapse a smaller reduction in share value to that of their major competitor Bell Canada (BCE) $34.90 per share. No fourth quarter earnings, no dividend returns, just your stock value versus mine, mono e mono.

Zoltan Black