thucydides trap - will billions die in repeat of history

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Harvard's Graham Allison, known for his book and

other studies on the Cuba Missile Crisis of 1962, is

fighting to re-awaken U.S. and British leaders to a dire reality

with a dramatic op-ed in London's Financial Times titled,

"Thucydides' Trap has been Sprung in the Pacific," datelined

August 21.  See http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5d695b5a-ead3-11e1-984b-00144feab49a.html#axzz24Un98At0

 

"Classical Athens was the centre of civilisation.

Philosophy, history, drama, architecture, democracy -- all beyond

anything previously imagined," he wrote. "This dramatic rise

shocked Sparta, the established land power on the Peloponnese.

Fear compelled its leaders to respond. Threat and counter-threat

produced competition, then confrontation and finally conflict. At

the end of 30 years of war, both states had been destroyed."

 

 

 "Thucydides wrote of these events:" Allison continued: "`It

was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta

that made war inevitable.' Note the two crucial variables: rise

and fear."...

 

     

 JCS Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey has used the same quote

many times to comparable effect.

 

     

 Turning to China, Allison wrote, "Never has a nation moved

so far, so fast, up the international rankings on all dimensions

of power. In a generation, a state whose gross domestic product

was smaller than Spain's has become the second-largest economy in

the world.

 

     

 "If we were betting on the basis of history, the answer to

the question about Thucydides' trap appears obvious. In 11 of 15

cases since 1500 where a rising power emerged to challenge a

ruling power, war occurred. Think about Germany after unification

as it overtook Britain as Europe's largest economy. In 1914 and

in 1939, its aggression and the UK's response produced world

wars."...

 

     

 He ends his dramatic warning with a call to arms, so to

speak: "To recognise powerful structural factors is not to argue

that leaders are prisoners of the iron laws of history. It is

rather to help us appreciate the magnitude of the challenge. If

leaders in China and the US perform no better than their

predecessors in classical Greece, or Europe at the beginning of

the 20th century, historians of the 21st century will cite Thucydides in explaining

the catastrophe that follows. The fact that war would be

devastating for both nations is relevant but not decisive. Recall

the first world war, in which all the combatants lost what they

treasured most."

 

     

 Graham Allison chaired a study group of the State

Department's independent International Security Advisory Board

(ISAB) which published the report "Mutual Assured Stability:

Essential Components and Near-Term Actions" on August 14 on the

State Department's website. This report does not focus on China

-- rather, its objective is to avoid the coming thermonuclear war

with Russia, and establish a regime of long-term war avoidance

largely by actions aimed at what the late Edward Teller called

"the common aims of mankind" -- and then to expand that

cooperation with Russia to include all other possible nations,

most urgently China.

 See: www.state.gov/t/avc/rls/rpt/196592.htm

 

     

 The members of Allison's study group included the top expert

Joseph Cirincione along with five others. ISAB itself is chaired

by former Defense Secretary William Perry, and includes

Ambassador Robert Gallucci and Gen. (ret) Brent Scowcroft along

with many other experts.

 

     

 A basic recommendation is that, "Neither side bases

decisions on nuclear force structure, posture, or doctrine on an

assumption that the other is an adversary or likely to engage in

nuclear conflict."

 

 

 The report's recommendations highlight that, "the United

States and Russia join together around the values, norms and

motives they share, commit to reducing the global nuclear threat,

and agree to influence others to share their views." That call to

"join together around the values, norms and motives they share,"

is repeated again and again throughout the report, referencing

not only the US and Russia, but all other nations, as the US and

Russia encourage them to join with them this collaboration.

 

     

 "A critical aspect of greater strategic stability requires

both the United States and Russia to recognize that the dire

consequences of nuclear conflict between them would be

disproportionate to the scale of any plausible bilateral disputes

they may have with each other. It should be recognized that both

U.S. conceptual thinking on mutual assured stability as well as

the U.S. dialogue with Russia must create more clarity on these

issues."     

 

 

 

 They recommend that "the United States and Russia

collaborate on a full range of public health issues of mutual

interest: stopping drug trafficking (particularly from

Afghanistan to Russia), infectious disease prevention, promotion

of healthy lifestyles and decreased drug abuse, affordable health

care delivery, and other areas as identified."

 

 

 They recommend: "Conduct a joint U.S.-Russia review of the

requirements for national and multilateral missile defense in the

coming years as missile technology continues to spread, with the

goal of achieving a shared understanding of each nation's

requirements for effective missile defense."