Slight Chance of US Interest Rate Cut This Tuesday

Compared to other interest rate futures markets, the nearby Fed Funds contracts showed only modest price losses in response to the better-than-expected US November payrolls report. In fact, the Dec contract was unchanged, reflecting the view that the US Federal Reserve won't...

US Dollar Stages Impressive U-turn Rally on Paulson's Remarks

Friday brought about an unpredictable course of price movements in the currency market. After a week of indecisive movements, the US dollar managed to end the week on a strong note. It was the most extensive one-day rally for the US dollar against the Euro since October, and...

US Dollar Pins Hope On Non-Farm Payrolls Tonight

A bla bla lazy afternoon/morning in Asia/Europe - something you would expect on the day of the US NFP (non-farm payrolls). The Japanese yen has managed to stay afloat after downward GDP revisions and the fourth consecutive decline in machinery orders so far today. The Euro...

Interest Rate To Rise in EuroZone Today

European Union's Juncker said the ECB (European Central Bank) will raise rates to 3.5% today. "Interest rates will be raised . . . to 3.5 basis points," the Tageblatt newspaper quoted Juncker telling the Luxembourg parliament on Wednesday. Juncker said the strong Euro was not...

Interest Rate to Rise in EuroZone Today

European Union's Juncker said the ECB (European Central Bank) will raise rates to 3.5% today. "Interest rates will be raised . . . to 3.5 basis points," the Tageblatt newspaper quoted Juncker telling the Luxembourg parliament on Wednesday. Juncker said the strong Euro was not...

UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence Drops

UK's Nationwide consumer confidence index fell to 89 in Nov (95 expected) from 98 in Oct as BOE's (Bank of England) 2 rate hikes this year (Aug and Nov) increased mortgage payments for homeowners and doused enthusiasm for spending on major purchases. Nationwide said BOE's...

US Dollar Continues to Struggle

The US dollar slipped marginally lower against the EUR and JPY after US productivity data came in slightly below consensus (+0.2% vs +0.4% forecast). US unit labor costs - a gauge of inflationary pressures - rose less than expected as well (+2.3% vs +3.6% expected), which...

Is USD Slide Due For Correction?

Today, the US dollar has risen modestly against the other currencies under data-light conditions. As I wrote in the previous blog posting, the net aggregate USD shorts on the IMM (International Monetary Market) increased to a level not seen since 6 months ago, and is the...

US Dollar Shorts Reach Extreme Point

In the currency futures market as of last Tuesday, there has been a 355% increase in USD shorts, which is at a 6-month high. This abnormally high level means that US dollar bearishness is at an ultra high point currently, and hence, there is a.......

US Dollar Shorts Reach Extreme Point

In the currency futures market as of last Tuesday, there has been a 355% increase in USD shorts, which is at a 6-month high. This abnormally high level means that US dollar bearishness is at an ultra high point currently, and hence, there is a.......

Will Weak US Data Cause Fed to Cut Rates?

Worse-than-expected US construction spending and US ISM Manufacturing business index caused the US dollar to slide further on Friday. ISM headline index was at 49.5 vs a prior 51.2 (52 expected). US construction spending decreased 1% in October compared to consensus of -0.3%....

European Officials OK With Euro Strength

European officials continued to shrug off Euro's recent strength. German Deputy Economics Minister Bernd Pfaffenbach (who is also Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief advisor on issues regarding the G8 industrialized nations) said, "It is obvious that a strong Euro isn't really...

EUR/USD Hits New High Despite Bernanke's Comments

Hours earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's remarks that core inflation is still "uncomfortably high" were quickly shrugged off by forex traders, leaving the EUR/USD to turn around and speed to another 20-month high of.....