Australia seems to be the odd man out these days - the only major

Australia seems to be the odd man out these days - the only major economy not in recession

Australian Dollar Rate Outlook

Australia Dollar seems to be the odd man out these days - the only major economy not in recession and with a central bank that yesterday declined to cut rates because the economy is okay.

Today GDP for Q4 fell 0.5% q/q after rising a feeble 0.1% in Q3, just escaping the formal definition of recession. Q4 was below forecasts of ongoing growth of 0.1% or perhaps 0.2%, so a surprise. On the y/y basis, GDP growth decelerated from 1.9% in Q3 to only 0.3% in Q4. A bank analyst writes that for this year, Australia will probably get a minor contraction of 0.25%. This is actually not too bad and certainly better than Japan, whose GDP contracted over 12% y/y in Q4. And if China comes back with any oomph, exports could be the leader.

The Australian Dollar fell on the surprise GDP news but we wonder if it doesn’t have some serious support. Growth counts. Relative growth counts, too. If the Reserve Bank of Australia can avoid cutting rates, Australia will keep its title of most desired investment currency - relative returns count most of all.

Pounds to Australian Dollars = 2.1700
Euros To Australian Dollars = 1.9400
Australian Dollars to US Dollars = 06500
Australian Dollars to New Zealand Dollars = 1.2832

Bye For Now

Barbara Rockefeller