Forecasting the future at CAB
mtippett | November 3, 2008 at 11:08 amby
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A $3 billion online ad market in Canada in 5 years? PVRs with built-in Internet video streaming? Ubiquitous fibre-to-the-curb in Canada? Predicting future technology is a mug's game - or is it? Listen to the industry's most reputable forecasting firms from around the world talk about their forecasting hits and misses. From mobile advertising to wired seniors, find out what the forecasters are predicting for the next 18 months.
Here are my notes:
How are companies reacting?
- Media stocks are down on average about 47% in Canada
- CanWest is down 90%
- Eyeballs are moving from conventional TV to pay TV
- Consumer sector was down at the beginning of the year
- US trends on ad dollars are getting negative on radio and print
- Multiples across the US have contracted too
- Canadian companies are valued at a lower multiple than their US counterparts
- The credit crisis really began last year - not this year
- Media stocks tend to mover earlier than advertising numbers
- In spite of this we are seeing investment in infrastructure and spectrum
- Wireline side is more susceptible to downturn
- May see less investment in bandwidth capacity
- Investment in triple play services has been made
- Has changed the video / TV market
- This spending will slow
- But consumer demands are still evolving
- Therefore the competitive dynamic is still very much in play
- Companies like Rogers can survive a liquidity wall because they've already converted the customers
- May see more introspective innovation
What are consumers adopting?
- 25% of people will choose Internet over TV
- Particularly true with 18-34 demo
- Social networking
- 400k people in Calgary are on facebook (out of a population of 1 milion)
- MSM has done a poor job of getting into facebook communities
- Mobile data users are using social networks more than other things
Is social media competitive or complimentary?
- Depends on how media companies react. Do they embrace it?
- A lot of online video is from broadcast sources for example
- Meet your viewers where they're at
- BBC has done a great job of going online with iPlayer
- Iplayer has actually driven viewership to TV
- Companies like BSkyB are considering building the iPlayer into their set top boxes
- The newspaper dynamic is an ugly prescedent for the broadcast business
- They have seen their top line drop off dramatically
- People may let go of their fixed telephone line and keep their mobile
What should Canadian Broadcaster do?
- Online strategy - put stuff online - meet your viewers where they are
- Online ad economy is more likely to be sheltered in this economic environment
- Radio must make a strong case against increase copyright fees
- Need to find complimentary online strategy soon
- Mobile is a growth area (laptops as well as cell phones)
- Communication is changing dramatically. There are generational shifts