The Incredible Shrinking Mortgage Market

Making money in real-estate is all about timing. Despite the fact that many people lost not only their shirts but their homes in the mortgage meltdown, real-estate has historically been considered a safe investment. But if current trends continue, there may be more bust than boom. In fact, we may never see a mortgage market as booming as it was during during the early 2000’s. In addition to the flood of new homeowners, the housing boom saw an unprecedented number of speculators acquiring multiple properties, hoping to capitalize on ever-increasing housing prices. The combined effect of all this activity was a mortgage market of tremendous size – roughly $10 trillion in residential mortgages by late 2007, which equates to nearly a quarter of the total debt market in the US. But every boom eventually busts, and since ‘07 the mortgage market has shrunk into a shell of its former self.

It should here be noted that the shrinking mortgage market is not only, or even primarily a US problem. BBC News reported in November 2008 that it was likely that, “…net new mortgage lending – gross new home loans minus repayments and redemption – would fall below zero in 2009 and see only a modest recovery in 2010.” These remarks were made following 2007 where net new mortgage lending stood at £108bn. Similarly, the UK’s Independent reported the findings of a study by Nationwide predicting that, “…the UK mortgage market will contract by 80% this year [2009],” and also that, “…house prices will fall for another 12 months.” Nationwide group development director Tony Prestedge estimated the total value of the mortgage market to be £18bn in 2008, compared with £90bn in 2007. Both estimates reach the same chilling conclusion of a drastically shrinking market.