a nice little war that the little guys will pay for forever

"Don't Underestimate Obama" Israeli Journalist Cautions

Ronen Bergman, the author of the lengthy {New York Times Magazine} article "Will Israel Attack Iran?" which was published on Sunday, Jan. 29 (but released Jan. 25) spoke on a international conference call this morning, and warned those who think that U.S. President Obama won't attack Iran not to doubt the likelihood that Obama will launch a military attack on Iran.


In his article, replete with leaks of classified data from top Israeli officials, Bergman, military corrspondent for the Israeli daily {Yedioth Ahronoth}, wrote that "I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012" as his conclusion.


Asked on today's conference call if his assumption is that Israel, not the U.S., will take military action against Iran, Bergman answered that some in Israel say "don't underestimate Obama," and point out that Obama has made some tough decisions including the killing of Osama bin Laden. 


"He's not weak," Bergman said, but he added that it's an election year, and so Obama might wait until after the elections. But he promised to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state, Bergman noted; the problem is the time element, when Iran will enter what Ehud Barak calls the "immunity zone."


On the call, organized by the U.S.-based Israel Project, there were a number of questions as to whether his article was part of Israeli saber-rattling, just trying to get U.S. involved, ratcheting up the psychological pressure on Iran, etc. 


Bergman noted that many people have said his article was part of effort by Barak to use the {New York Times} to send a message to Obama; he naturally denied this, but added, that this is not to say, that Barak is not trying to send a message.


Bergman concluded by saying that his statement in the last paragaph of his {New York Times Magazine} article -- that Israel will strike Iran in 2012 -- was his personal assessment, that he hopes that crippling sanctions will be seen by the Iran leadership as a threat to their survival, and that they will change course. (and, what fantasy of world history would lead anybody to see that as a possibility?)


Earlier, when asked what could Iran do to prevent a strike, he said they could take the course that Qaddafi took, when Qaddafi reached a secret deal with the U.S. and U.K. to stop nuclear development, stopped his dealings with A.Q. Khan, and gave full access to inspectors. 


But since Libya was subsequently invaded, and Qaddafi murdered, this is probably not the best example to use, were Bergman genuinely trying to convince the Iranians to give up their nuclear program.



Maybe it's not true that war begins when the economy gets tight for the big guys. Sorry, but this war has nothing, really, to do with Israel and Iran. It's more about a lifestyle many have grown to enjoy that will no longer be viable with the world economic crisis.