Tech & Biz

Peter Schiff and His Economic Predictions

by mazevedo | November 24, 2008 at 05:37 pm

2484 views | 4 Recommendations | 4 comments

There's a popular YouTube clip called "Peter Schiff Was Right" that shows the president of Euro Pacific Capital engaged in on-air debates with financial luminaries such as Art Laffer and Ben Stein, circa 2006-07.

The clips show the wisdom of Schiff's dire forecasts — and, judging from the dismissive reactions, just how far he was outside the mainstream.

Ben Stein publicly apologized to Schiff in a New York Times column, but Laffer refuses to admit defeat, recently telling Bill Maher his economic forecasts have a statute of limitations of just nine months.

To his credit, Schiff isn't declaring victory, noting "100% of my forecast hasn't panned out," most notably "a major collapse in the dollar" that leads to a spike commodity prices.

As discussed in the accompanying video, Schiff believes the recent dollar rally and commodity price weakness will prove temporary. Most troubling, he says the "economic crisis is only just beginning."

So it turns out Peter Schiff's predictions have been right during this crisis however is he right when he says this is just the beginning of the crisis? Sounds pretty scary dosen't it. What is your intake on it?

1 See all footage | View Slideshow

Share: email story | add to any | | facebook | stumbleupon

recommend This comment thread is now closed

NettieSpaghetti

at 19:24 on November 24th, 2008

That's interesting, his predictions were perfectly logical at that time. More people should have listened. The markets seem to be having a mind of their own lately. The bailouts are not bringing the economy "back onto its feet", as the government promised...

My observation is; credit is the one of the most popular ways Americans are able to fabricate a comfortable lifestyle, and, since credit is not going to be so easy for the regular American to receive now, it's safe to say the markets may be hitting the rocks for a bit... This would also explain why stores like JCPenney, Ethan Allen, etc, are closing locations (Or closing altogether). Americans have been purchasing by way of credit for too long. This is a sign that our schools are neglecting history, that's one of the ways how the great depression began in the 30s (Too much credit).

Honestly, we have had a terrible time with finances ever since gas prices began to rise. Hmm, at least gas prices are dropping.

Mike B (not verified)

at 14:51 on November 25th, 2008

I am in the mortgage trade, and I see a host of changes being made by about half the people who come to me in foreclosure. They have ditched credit cards, cars and the like and are now qualified for low rate FHA programs available to people with good income and poor but hopeful credit. The problem is finding a bank or lender actually making the government insured loans. Lenders on the HUD list say they are doing the HOPE loans, but are not really. The other half of people in foreclosure are sitting around waiting for President Obama to rescue them. They don't want to pay a dime until then, and plan to use bankruptcy to wipe out their debts. They really are, I hate to say it, sloppy moochers who lied through their teeth and are still just this side of fraud merchants.

I am listening to Schiff will full attention, and am following his advice. No debt, stay in cash or gold for now, stock up on household supplies and canned food.

As for how to stop the asset bleeding? I really think a gas tax pushing prices to $4.00 per gallon will pay for a lot of sins of stimulating the economy with loans from China and Arabia, and will force the creation of new wealth in America resulting from the conversion from oil to the next home grown solution.

As for the depression, I am not sure it was easy credit. I think the raising of rates, plus the Smoot Hawley tariffs caused our exports to collapse. I am still reading. Watch out for the Weimar Republic scenario.

NettieSpaghetti

at 00:17 on November 26th, 2008

Interesting! Are you suggesting we have a Weimar Republic scenario on our hands, or, rather, are you suggesting a warning not to compare our situation to the Weimar Republic? Just curious. :)

hindsight (not verified)

at 21:01 on February 4th, 2009

I think Peter Schiff is right on the money, so to speak. All the bailout will do is delay the inevitable collapse. People have to start saving again and those companies that can't make it should be allowed to fail without government intervention. All cheap credit will do is get us back into the same boat, but into deeper hot water which we will never surface from. Housing needs to return to an affordable level and prices will likely continue to decline further at least 25% or more. Only then, when people start saving and avoid credit will the economy begin to recover.
The doomsday scenario of absolute anarchy and martial law is very scary and I hope he is dead wrong on that but I am heeding his advice nonetheless and stocking up as we speak. When I see businesses such as Longs Drug Store in our community going out of business after 25 years that signals to me something is very wrong and looming in the economy. There are more and more empty signs in commercial buildings. I do think this is just the beginning of the collapse and I hope I am proved dreadfully wrong.