Rich-world Bailout is Hurting World's Poor and is a Big Distraction From Fight Against Poverty
Opinion: OECD warns Britain too corrupt for investors: The IMF should think very carefully about bailing out developed countries in this financial crisis. The facts behind the crisis - the greed, the housing bubbles, the over-consumption, the deceit - should not be used as an excuse to divert money away from the world's poor countries who did not enjoy the past decade's orgy.
As the World Bank's president Robert Zoellick says, the credit crunch has also created a "human crisis" in many of the poorest countries, which required a coordinated response. He said the number of malnourished people was expected to increase by 44 million this year to 967 million as a result of high food prices.
There is something particularly odious about middle class people who knowingly took on too-big mortgages, turning around and complaining about interest payment increases (mortgage interest rates do not come close to what they have been in the 70s and 80s).
There are profound structural reforms required in the developed countries to address this problem. By bailing it out with what is the world's emergency reserve of savings in the IMF, would be very irresponsible.
The Millennium Development Goals - due to be accomplished by 2015 - should be the priority for this extra cash.
As for the middle class in developed countries, they will need to work this out with their national governments, and face up to their own economic problems and priorities. As has been mentioned in many publications, the warning bells were going off over the past five years. International institution after institution issued thoroughly researched reports and memos saying debt levels were too high. The respected OECD is now warning investors to stay away from Britain, because the level of corruption is so bad. It says investors run the risk of being drawn into the endemic culture of corruption, much of it connected to global crime syndicates like the Russian oligarchs. Even when anti-bribary laws are enforced, they are so lax they are meaningless. The UK's Serious Fraud Office is notorious for claiming it can't find a single case of corruption after spending ten years looking for it - a fraudulent claim in its own right.
National governments took no action, and this should be something for national leaders to contemplate.
Boom nations to catch cold as west's financial disease strides the globe• Former eastern bloc states top list of countries at risk as credit runs dry
• Russia likely to help its banks after saving huge foreign currency reserves
The western financial crisis is turning global as capital-flows throughout the developing world have been transformed by the credit crunch into destructive riptides for scores of economies.
Many boom nations of eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America are among those abruptly stalling, leaving governments wrongfooted by an investment exodus. Economists have been drawing up a critical list of vulnerable countries - identifying those struggling with giant current account deficits, undercapitalised banks, overheated stockmarkets and exposures to short-term overseas borrowing.
"The three Baltic states along with Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria and Romania - and of course Iceland - are at the top of the list," said Nick Chamie, of RBC Capital Markets. He singled out Hungary, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia as least able to mimic the recent western bank bail-outs that have helped more mature economies reduce some of the most damaging effects of the crunch.
Officials from the International Monetary Fund rushed to Kiev earlier this week. A succession of Ukrainian governments have failed to tame a foreign credit-fueled consumer boom and soaring inflation. An emergency IMF loan of up to $14bn (£8.1bn) is being lined up as the local currency, the hryvnia, plummets.
The move follows Iceland's crisis talks with both the IMF and Russian officials as it seeks rescue loans following the collapse of its banking industry, which had made loans equivalent to more than three times the country's GDP. The IMF has also been approached by Hungary and Serbia.
Neil Shearing, an economist with Capital Economics, said Hungary, the Baltic and Balkan states, and Turkey all appeared to be slipping towards a similar balance-of-payments crisis.
At an EU summit in Brussels yesterday Gordon Brown, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, and others called for tomorrow's meeting of European leaders and George Bush at Camp David to be devoted to the redesigning of global capitalism. Sarkozy and the head of the European commission, José Manuel Barroso, are to lobby Bush to assent to a Bretton Woods II conference of at least 15 of the leading economies.
"The priority for us is the Saturday summit with the US president to prepare for the world summit which the world needs to recast the capitalist system, the financial and monetary system," said Sarkozy, who chaired the Brussels session.
The spectre of contagion from the western financial crisis reached South Korea this week, when credit rating agencies warned that seven banks were heavily reliant on short-term foreign funding which, if recalled, could wreak havoc on the local financial system.
Russia's rapid growth has spawned hundreds of banks, many of which have drawn funding from the international money markets. Several have been forced to seek government bail-outs.
Brian Coulton, global head of economics at Fitch Ratings, said that shockwaves hitting the Russian banks were likely to be dealt with comfortably by the mountain of foreign reserves built up by the Kremlin.
India, Brazil and China are not the brittle economies they once were and are expected to be among the least affected as the world economy slows.
"Taking emerging markets as a whole, the economic fundamentals are stronger than they were five years ago," said Coulton. "But that is very much an aggregate picture. There will be some economies that fare much worse than others."
Analysts at Standard & Poor's agree that while the emerging markets boom has run out of steam, even a violent exodus of western credit is unlikely to trigger domino sovereign debt defaults as once it might have done.
The burgeoning crisis has generated a rare mood of consensus in the EU behind swift and radical action.
Brown said he wanted the world summit to take place before the end of the year. Sarkozy called for a November summit and has signalled his preference for New York as the venue. But the Japanese prime minister, Taro Aso, sounded sceptical yesterday, telling parliament in Tokyo that the situation was not yet bad enough to warrant such a step.
Sarkozy admitted that there was no full agreement on how to proceed, but dismissed suggestions that a world summit should wait until a new US president was in the White House in January.
"We would otherwise have a meeting in the spring and that's much too late ... We must have a summit before the end of the year. Europe wants it. Europe will get it."
The creditworthiness of at least 10 countries around the world has more than halved in the last six months as the global credit crisis deepened, according to the credit data firm Markit. The cost of insuring against default sovereign debt issued by Ukraine with a face value of $10m, has jumped fivefold since April to $1.7m a year. This indicates the markets believe there is a strong chance the government - in emergency talks with the IMF since Wednesday - could go bust, with creditors recouping little of their loans to the country. The likelihood of heavy losses is even greater for those holding Icelandic sovereign debt. The cost of insuring $10m of Icelandic debt is $1m a year, more than three times what it was six months ago. Other countries with sharp deteriorations in their creditworthiness include Kazakhstan, Argentina, South Korea and Serbia. Meanwhile, despite the rash of bank bailouts in the UK, the cost of insuring $10m of government debt for this country remains relatively low, rising from $140,000 to $410,000 since April. This makes the cost of protecting UK sovereign debt against default almost exactly the same as the cost for buying similar protection on debt issued by McDonald's.
From The TimesOctober 10, 2008Why the recession is a blessing in disguiseWe'll smoke less, be fitter, thinner and greener. Oh, and the roads will be safer. There is a surprising side to a downturnAlice Thomson
The bankers are fleeing. I got a message from a friend this week. “We've decided to downscale and go to Venice for a bit. We're in a flat on the Grand Canal, the children are learning Italian, the weather is wonderful and it feels like we can finally relax after ten years of madness.”
That's fine then. The City folk are taking what remains of their money and fleeing to sunnier climes to recuperate and recharge, to return when the crisis is over. Everyone else in Britain will have to sit it out. Scotland, the North, graduates, the retired, everyone will feel the effects of the recession. The Home Office has given warning in a leaked memo of more crime, racism and extremism.
But recessions don't bring unmitigated woe. During the past ten years of boom, a small, rather Eeyorish, group of American economists and psychologists has been trying to work out whether people really are better off in what Gordon Brown once called “the Golden Years” and now refers to as the “Age of Irresponsibility”.
Their answer is that recessions (rather than booms or depressions) might actually be a blessing. People tend to drink less, smoke fewer cigarettes and lose weight. They enrol in higher education, the air is cleaner, the roads are less crowded.
When times are good, research by Stanford University and the University of North Carolina shows that people of all classes tend not to take care of themselves and their families. The better off may have gym membership but all classes drink too much (especially before driving), they eat more fat-laden food - either pre-packaged from supermarkets or in restaurants - and are more likely to neglect their families. In downturns, people have more time to visit their elderly relatives and are more likely to look after their children themselves rather than booking them into expensive after-school activities or crèches.
Grant Miller, an assistant professor of medicine at Stanford, says that in a boom people work longer, harder hours to take advantage of the conditions and are more stressed and less likely to do things that are good for them: “Cooking at home and exercising are seen as a waste of time.”
But when wages drop, and jobs are scarce, the young feel that it makes more economic sense to prolong their education, and the elderly will retire earlier because there is less incentive to keep earning.
This research backs up a paper, published in 2000, entitled Are Recessions Good for your Health? by Christopher Ruhm, professor of economics at the University of North Carolina. Professor Ruhm analysed death rates from 1972 to 1991, comparing them to economic shifts. He found that for every 1 per cent increase in unemployment rates, there was a 0.5 per cent decline in the death rate.
The number of suicides rose by an average of 2per cent during recessions in this period and cancer deaths by 23 per cent, but this was easily outweighed by the decrease in deaths from heart disease and car crashes. People not only eat more healthily in recessions but they tend to drive less, either as an economy measure or because they are no longer commuting to their jobs. When unemployment rates rise by a point, the number of fatal car crashes decreases by 2.4 per cent.
In another paper, Healthy Living in Hard Times, Professor Ruhm suggests that in America during the recession in the 1990s, smoking, particularly among heavy users, declined by 5 per cent.
Ralph Catalano, professor of public health at the University of California, Berkeley, believes that it is an oversimplification to say that recessions are good for people, but he thinks that they do encourage healthier lifestyles. “People who are worried about losing their jobs do things that keep them from getting laid off - they drink less and take fewer risks.”
Environmentalists may also find their work easier during a recession. Only two years ago consumers were throwing away one apple in four, people bought a new television set on average every two years and redecorated their kitchens every time they moved house.
But those who have refused to be thrifty for green reasons have now to start rationalising their lives for economic ends. In the past six months councils have reported increased use of libraries and a fall in the quantity of household rubbish.
There are other benefits to this downturn. Prices for necessities are dropping. Food prices are beginning to level out as supermarkets compete with £1 pizzas. Petrol prices have gone down. House prices have fallen by 10.9 per cent, mortgage rates are dropping. More people are turning to eBay and even here prices are falling. The average selling price of a home entertainment system has dropped to £62.49 from £99.58 three months ago.
Shops on the high street have increased the number of bargains - even toothbrushes are now discounted. “This is the deepest and biggest discounting in years,” Richard Dodd of the British Retail Consortium said.
But at least the boom made people happy? That's not entirely true either. According to the Office for National Statistics, levels of contentment have remained the same, at around 87 per cent, for the past ten years and are lower than during the recession in the 1970s. No amount of espresso machines or mini-breaks seemed to satisfy people.
So while there is no such thing as a good recession, it doesn't have to cause unmitigated gloom and despondency.
IMF readies emergency aid for wounded economies
By Lesley Wroughton
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it was ready to help countries hit by the raging global credit crunch and had activated an emergency financing mechanism first used in the 1990s Asian crisis.
The Fund already has a mission in Iceland, where the government has seized control of its largest bank, and has warned that the worst financial crisis since the 1930s Great Depression could inflict lasting economic harm on the world.
"Yesterday I activated emergency procedures so the IMF can respond quickly ... to be able to answer problems that may happen in some of the emerging countries," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told a news conference.
"We are ready to answer any demand by countries facing problems," he added.
Panic over toxic U.S. mortgage loans has sapped confidence in financial institutions, forced governments to pledge hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money and pushed central banks to deliver the first coordinated interest rate cut.
Speaking ahead of IMF and World Bank meetings of finance leaders in Washington this weekend, Strauss-Kahn said the main task of global policy-makers was to restore confidence in global markets.
Group of Seven finance ministers and central bank chiefs also meet in Washington on Friday to consider their options.
The IMF's emergency facility was created in 1995 as a way of speeding up the approval of loans to countries in need.