Solar Power to Rule in 20 Years, Futurists Say

by Erik Larson | August 14, 2008 at 10:20 pm

1069 views | 32 Recommendations | 29 comments

BOSTON — He predicted the fall of the Soviet Union. He predicted the explosive spread of the Internet and wireless access.

Now futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil is part of distinguished panel of engineers that says solar power will scale up to produce all the energy needs of Earth's people in 20 years.

There is 10,000 times more sunlight than we need to meet 100 percent of our energy needs, he says, and the technology needed for collecting and storing it is about to emerge as the field of solar energy is going to advance exponentially in accordance with Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns. That law yields a doubling of price performance in information technologies every year.

Kurzweil, author of "The Singularity Is Near" and "The Age of Intelligent Machines," worked on the solar energy solution with Google Co-Founder Larry Page as part of a panel of experts convened by the National Association of Engineers to address the 14 "grand challenges of the 21st century," including making solar energy more economical. The panel's findings were announced here last week at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

And the article (EDIT- dated Feb 19, 2008) also notes his prediction that solar will be cost-competive with fossil fuels for producing electricity in 5 years. Advances in knowledge, understanding and technological capabilities shift paradigms and enable the whole world to operate on the new higher level. Just imagine; the stranglehold of big oil interests on politics being diffused if not broken; elimination of the "need" for wars over geo-strategic resources; electric cars and clean energy; independent people and communities.

Ray Kurzweil is not the only one predicting this from trends in solar and renewable energy advances, but he's a fascinating guy, has made dozens of accurate predictions. A couple links for further info:

Accelerating Change

Ray Kurzweil

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SOLARLIFE

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 22:27 on August 14th, 2008

Erik Larson, I like this story. This is good news for solarlife. Thanks

Erik Larson

at 22:29 on August 14th, 2008

i like your name, and this is definitely good news, imho

Jeremiah Vandermeer

at 22:56 on August 14th, 2008

I sure hope he's right.

Uwe Paschen

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 01:05 on August 15th, 2008

Erik Larson, I like this story. It's good stuff.

danesller0127

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 01:47 on August 15th, 2008

Erik Larson, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Very interesting!!! Thank you for sharing it...

danesller

Emilio Lizardo

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 05:16 on August 15th, 2008

Erik Larson, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Hey Erik - well, maybe ... as long as they can make as much money from it or more than they are making now, then it'll fly ...

Erik Larson

at 07:14 on August 15th, 2008

good point, Emilio, the research is being done by people who have a passion for science and discovery, but it's being funded by capitalists seeking a profit. One of the interesting things is that solar appears to be following the same trends that have long been consistent in other "information technologies", most famously with processor speed (Moore's Law) and storage capacity; increased efficiency and reduced cost. Technological advancement has been one of the drivers of the enormous economic growth the world has experienced. Also, I.Q. scores have been rising around the world since they first started tracking it in the 1950's- it appears to have slowed or leveled off in developed countries, but still rising in developing nations Flynn effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Emilio Lizardo

at 07:42 on August 15th, 2008

Well, ok - solar is great, I agree. But the heartless machine which is the economy doesn't care about anything else but this - growth ... you may already know all about this, so I needn't point out that no matter what the theoretical healthy economic growth rate is, eventually one planet just isn't enough anymore ...

This is definately off-topic so, I guess I'll leave it at that.

BruceC

at 07:00 on August 15th, 2008

If I was a betting man, I would bet that in 20 years God will have returned and be reigning not solar energy. Hinduism, bhudism, scientology, mormonism, catholism, protestantism, new age and every other religion will be abolished.

Erik Larson

at 07:23 on August 15th, 2008

I have a funny feeling myself that is what's happening, we are discovering who we really are and everything we're meant to be, and we're all part of one life and one family, even as we are all unique and special. This trend towards increasing order and complexity has been consistent since the Big Bang 13.7 billion years ago (if you believe in Science). And just starting with human history, we can see the time to each next paradigm shifting and enlightening event has been coming sooner and sooner; language, writing, the printing press, radio, TV, computers, the internet, cell phones, text messaging, communications technology interoperability, text to speech conversion, computer translation, etc. etc. These technologies do get misused and abused by selfish, greedy, powerful and corrupt people, but they also empower individuals and the world has become wiser. Kurzweil predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union and social reorganization; he said the increasing availability of things like cell phones and faxes were causing a corresponding loss in the ability of the state to control information. I see the same thing happening around the world now, thanks to the Web and all the related technologies. It's not stopping here.

bill hicks

at 16:30 on August 15th, 2008

There is something very interesting about the big bang theory. When it happened it occured in less than a second. The speed of light super exceeded its current speed and has been coming out of a hyperbolic curve ever since. The measurement of time as we know it is not what it was. If fact light is slowing everyday. Carbon dating is also skewed. We measure the breakdown based on a 'fact' the atoms are changing at the same rate today as they did yesterday. Reality is carbon dating is only valid to about 4000 years. More than that is an estimate and there is no real basis for determining what it should be other than they know it is not correct. They have not determined what the actual starting time point is so they can not determine the real rate of change. Guessing a date and basing beliefs on those dates is a falacy and scary.

As for one family, there are two.

Erik Larson

at 08:40 on August 16th, 2008

Bill, that sounds fascinating; what are your sources for the changing speed of light and the limits of carbon dating? If you have links, that's best, but names are good, too- I hadn't heard these before.

Also, what do you think is the real age of the universe and why?

What two families?

And, what is the meaning of life?

I'm serious, I'm curious about your answers. Personally, I think both science and religion are fairy tales and the truth about the Living God Creator of the Universe is something we can know with our spirit, but it's filtered by our 3 lbs of gray mush and egos, in both negative and positive ways. As religion and science influence people's perception of reality and shape the world we live in, I am interested in the effects and possibilities. I am optimistic about here/now as well as the future.

Emilio Lizardo

at 07:44 on August 15th, 2008

Hey ! You forgot capitalism !

Erik Larson

at 07:40 on August 15th, 2008

thanks for all the solar pics, everyone. It's amazing, these things collect sunlight and turn it into energy- like plants

liamssoft

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 09:45 on August 15th, 2008

Erik Larson, I like this story. It's good stuff. Sounds like we will get there in the end.

Jarrett Martineau

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 12:45 on August 15th, 2008

Erik Larson, I like this story. It's good stuff.

buglugs

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at 16:01 on August 15th, 2008

Erik Larson, I like this story... It's interesting stuff, and I have a good teaching friend at The University of Calgary that helped in the building of the Calgary Solar Car Project.

neilgomes

at 17:49 on August 15th, 2008

Tie Interceptor From the movie Star Wars.

Black solar panels attached to the outer and inner wing provides power to the ion engine system that accelerates gases at a high speed along almost any vector, affording the ships tremendous speed and maneuverability.

Paper model created By Neil Gomes

neilgomes has contributed a photo to this story.

Eleaf

at 18:14 on August 15th, 2008

This off-grid pyramid house is powered by two eight panel tracking photovoltaic arrays and solar panels covering the entire south face of the structure. Several computers and other auxiliary electrical units are used daily within the house. www.ethanlofton.com
Feel free to use http://www.flickr.com/photos/eleaf/2755577041 too (an image of one of the solar panel trackers against the stars).
Eleaf has contributed a photo to this story.

EsonLinji

at 20:18 on August 15th, 2008

This solar panel provides power to a hiking outpost on Mt Halla on Jeju Island, South Korea.

EsonLinji has contributed a photo to this story.

Canolais

at 01:28 on August 16th, 2008

This is Ollie Stroud from Firefly Solar - www.fireflysolar.co.uk - the UK’s first fully mobile, fully reliable solar powered stage for the outdoor events industry.

Canolais has contributed a photo to this story.

Paul9402

at 09:12 on August 16th, 2008

I took this picture of a solar powered privy on a hike to the top of Longs Peak, Colorado. It's a mountain that is 14,000 feet high so a lot of people hike it to do a fourteener.

Paul9402 has contributed a photo to this story.

Mama Noots Backabush

at 11:27 on August 16th, 2008

Mamanoots Backabush Resort is located deep in the jungles of Belize. We are off of the grid and run our paradise on solar panels and a micro hydro system. Loving our earth and sharing our little corner of it with the world! Mamanoots.com

sola.system

at 12:03 on August 16th, 2008

The Solasystem, built by Nick Hasty, Justin Downs, and Florica Vlad at NYU's ITP program. For more info, go to http://sola-system.com

sola.system has contributed a photo to this story.

Figgles1

at 16:52 on August 16th, 2008

I've had these panels on my roof for 2 months now and even in a West Australian winter am generating most of the power my small house needs...

Figgles1 has contributed a photo to this story.

PAYAL_PATEL

at 13:48 on August 17th, 2008

The photo above of a solar cooker was taken while with the Barefoot College in Tilonia, Rajasthan, India. Visit www.barefootcollege.org for details about their solar power projects.

PAYAL_PATEL has contributed a photo to this story.

fotophriendly

at 06:51 on August 18th, 2008

Not much of a story to tell here...it's just that I was in Catskill,NY shooting images of the area when I happened upon this building, which I remember from when I was very young. It's gone through a myriad of changes over the past few decades but at the present is being renovated to be the first solar powered apartment building in the Village of Catskill,NY. Thanks for the recognition and best of luck! Rich H. aka: fotophriendly

fotophriendly has contributed a photo to this story.

bruce.fatfiddle

at 10:58 on August 18th, 2008

A student event sponsored by Dickenson College, Carlisle Pa.
This solar powered blender made dozens of frozen strawberry (virgin) daquiris for the students and guests. It ran powerfully and with as much torque as would be expected if powered from a standard 120 volt receptcle.

the Dickenson College farm is located on 180 acres of College-owned property not far from campus. Thirty to fifty acres of the existing land is converted into a certified organic vegetable production farm. The aim of the farm will be to supply the College Dining Hall with significant amounts of fresh produce during the summer, fall and late spring as well as functioning as a CSA for the College community. Additionally, the farm will work with faculty, staff and administrators to develop academic programs that support research and student interests. The Farm also strives to develop itself as an anchor in the local community for people interested in learning more about sustainable food production, renewable energy, and environmental stewardship. The College farm employs a farm manager and an assistant farm manager, along with 6-9 students year round.

I was there as a musician playing for the barn contradance in july 2008

Bruce Campbell
www.fatfiddle.com

bruce.fatfiddle has contributed a photo to this story.