U.S. economic outlook for 2014
Every four to six years, the U.S. experiences an economic slowdown. It happens like clockwork. The current bull market is now in its fourth year.
For those who missed the recovery, it’s probably a little unnerving to consider “this” a bull market or an economic recovery. And it’s probably just as unnerving to think that we’re already primed for another correction. While the markets may be performing well, the average American isn’t. Unemployment remains high, as does household debt. Gross domestic product (GDP) is essentially flat. Housing may be the one bright spot, but even that sector is fragile at best.
How does the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) feel about the U.S economic outlook in 2014? Pessimistic. The CBO expects the U.S. economy in 2014 to remain moribund and for unemployment to remain near eight percent. But it gets better. It also projects that both actual and potential real GDP will eke out 2.25% annual gains between 2019 and 2023. (Source: “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023,” Congressional Budget Office web site, February 2013.)
For the average American trying to make ends meet in 2014, a bull market and a recession will probably look—and feel—the same. Read More