Vancouver Condo Crash in the Making?

by DoctorOk | April 8, 2008 at 07:16 pm | 1001 views | 4 comments

Has the East Vancouver condo market finally caught up with reality? Is a market correction coming, or already in the works? Based on the information below, the rolling average in the Landcor chart shows a steep decline with a downward trend in pricing. Fingers crossed for buyers and anxiety for homeowners and sellers...

Here’s something I was wondering about. I heard anectdotally that Vancouver east side condos seem to be on a downhill slide as far as price goes. This morning I was reminded to check it out, typed in Vancouver East, apartments, pushed refresh graph. Waited. Looked at the graph. Wow.

 

Other areas really don’t show so much weakness (I looked at a few) but Van East apartments looks like its in bust mode already. Looks like a 15% drop in HPI from peak. That’s a big deal.

Now before anyone accuses me of going all “Chicken Little” over this one piece of data, let me be clear about my point: The only reason for this drop in HPI that I can ascertain is plain old supply & demand. Too many properties for sale, not enough buyers with the required $$.

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banter

Looking back towards downtown Vancouver from the Granville Bridge.

banter has contributed a photo to this story.

amyjudd
good stuff:

DoctorOk, I like this story. It's good stuff.

ted.sali

Downtown Winnipeg.
Another growing Canadian real estate market. What will happen here if the other markets crash?

ted.sali has contributed a photo to this story.

Lou campo

Totally agree. there are so many empty condos built and bought on spec by Foreign and domestic $ , and big $. The problem is that there is very little upside potential profit-wise and some serious downside potential and the myth that Vancouver is immune to international realities is wearing very thin. A good indicator is the number of rentals available with incentives from speculators trying to cover their fragile downside positions. This will only grow and a lot of speculators badly burned by the sub-prime fiasco and the markets, are staring to panic , for good reason. It's the first time that the consumer, who have been ripped off and underestimated by the big banks and markets who have been taking advantage of their sense of fiscal responsibilities and ethical obligations. The big $ gurus have been beaten at their own illusionary and manipulative games by the masses. Give me cheap $ and we will take it, but don't count on me to predicatably line your pockets. We have been ripped off enough by the so-called geniuses and all the hype and if we back off and not play the game then the stack of cards fall, and fall hard. It is so refreshing and liberating.

As for me, I sold everything I had about a year ago and am sitting on cash with my interest paying the rent , which is so much cheaper than the ridiculous cost of ownership. At some point I will take advantage of some gullible, greedy specualtor and buy a condo at 50% of the current market and a place in Costa Rica, which is getting real cheap. A lot of vacation home valuations are way down and dropping because a lot of the purchases are based on fictitious equity positions on primary residences especially US based purchases. It will be so satisfying, finally ripping off the hype mongers at their own game. After all , it is true capitalism and the power is with the consumer , finally.  It 's good times coming and we're in for a hell of a ride.

Power to the people and we are not that easily manipulated by the greedy propaganda and pretentious hype machine.

Good luck and maybe my sons can dream of ownership, finally and the decency and pride that comes with it. It's supposed to be a home not a speculative asset and that is the inevitable reality.

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April 8, 2008 at 07:16 pm by DoctorOk, 1001 views, 4 comments

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