The Future of Iraq? More of the Same

Nobody can rule Iraq as a whole country who is pro-American. Any regime that eventually asserts authority over that country, and its going to be by brutal force because the insurgents have been able to create a very serious divide between sunnis and shiites, they are not into ethinic cleansing, we are to some degree presiding over this ethnic cleansing, which we've opposed elsewhere. As long as that's the case, you're going to have a brutal dictator to put this back together and his legitimacy is going to depend on being anti-American.

Odom goes one step further by arguing that the chaos in Iraq will only be stopped by a brutal dictator, and one who taps into Iraqi anti-Americanism. The big question of course is the nature of the impending dictatorship in Iraq; given the nature of the sectarian conflict in Iraq is religious, it is unlikely we will end up with a secular/Stalinist regime like Saddam's. There are basically two options, a Shiite regime or a Sunni regime, with one likely to have strong ties to Iran and one with some kind of relationship to Al-Qaeda. A Shiite win is more likely, which may be morbidly good news for the United States. Al-Qaeda is not likely to dominate in Iraq.