Thin-Film Solar Clobbering Fossil Fuels in Ten Years?

Everyone loves solar power. The notion of making electricity from the
Earth’s solar income is pretty much irresistible. But the harsh reality
of our current state of PV (photovoltaic) technology, a reality that
not many choose to acknowledge, is that without government subsides,
solar power just doesn’t pay for itself in any timely way—certainly not
the kind of way that would make the profit-minded jump. But that may
only be because our days of silicone-based solar cells are numbered. In
an article from the Telegraph this week, Ambrose Evans-Prichard talks to Anil Sethi of Flisom,
a Swiss firm making thin-film solar cells. Sethi confidently expects
his company’s products be giving fossil-fuel generated power a run for
their money within five years, and that within ten years, solar will
undercut coal, natural gas, and nuclear by 50%. That’s what is
technically referred to as clobbering. The crucial tipping point, says
Evans-Prichard, is the $1 per watt point: the current price of most
non-renewable energy sources. Current solar technology puts the price
of solar power at about $3 to $4 per watt. Anil Sethi of Flisom
foresees his thin-film solar panels (commercially available in late
2009) reaching $.80/watt in five years, and $.50/watt within ten.

Thin film solar modules don’t use the costly, and limited, silicone that we are used to. The technology is based on CIGS
(copper indium gallium selenide) arranged on a flexible backing,
suitable for not only the tops, but also the sides of buildings, tinted windows,
cell phones, notebook computers, cars, and even clothing. Thin film
solar panels are “printed” onto the rolled backing, eliminating many of
the highly energy and chemical intensive processes that are typical in
convention PV manufacture. Oil Giant Shell is placing its chip on thin-film, and in the US, Nanosolar is positioning itself to be a leader in the thin-revolution. With the investment dollars of Google’s founders, Nanosolar is building a plant in California the capacity of which would catapult it into the top solar makers in the world. ::Telegraph