TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA -by Steve Gregory

SEP 9 , 2005 10:45 AM CDT

Satellite Imagery and a Hurricane RECON data just coming in indicates that Ophelia is
moving slowly Northeastward, and after weakening overnight to a Tropical storm, has
now regained Hurricane Intensity as it moves away from the southerly shear that weakened it overnight.

The latest position is near 29.5/78.6W or about 125 miles ESE of Jacksonville and the
storm is moving NNE at about kts. Central pressure has fallen back down to 985mb
(it was 991mb overnight), and the Max Flight level wind has increased to near 67KTS (SE Quadrant)
or around 65mph sustained surface wind. The thermal eye wall temperature gradient (temperature
inside the eye versus outside the eye at the 10,000 ft, or 700mb level) only 3degC, but if the trend
towards better organization continues, this thermal gradient will as well. While the RECON has
not yet reported a true eyewall, microwave imagery indicates that an improved eyewall structure
is currently trying to form. The buoy located at 30.0N/80.6W (about 70NM W-WNW of the storm center)
is currently reporting North winds of 26mph with gusts to 33mph, and 11 ft seas, while the buoy located
about 70 miles SSE of the storm. now has 38mph sustained winds, and gusts to 49mph, and 14ft seas.
It also still has a SST of nearly 84degF, essentially unchanged over the last 5 days, indicating the
Gulf Stream has kept the surface water temps totally replenished with warm water from the south.
In addition, the buoy just 40 miles SE of Savannah, Georgia is already reporting NNE winds of 28mph,
and gusts to 34mph, along with 9 foot swells.

The reports from these buoy's confirm the aerial extent of higher winds has expanded, especially in the
north through south quadrants of the storm, and that the higher winds speeds from aloft are starting to
reach the surface. Ironically, I believe Ophelia is now a 'true' minimal Hurricane -- versus yesterday
when it was clearly still a 'borderline' in terms of surface level wind speeds. The ocean swells that
are now reaching the Georgia and Carolina coast line are also going to produce strong and
dangerous rip currents. Be advised.

The move to a more northerly position, versus the east bias the models have been forecasting for days
has resulted in a lessening of shear above Ophelia, which caused significant weakening for the 12 hour
period from around 6PM last night, till 6AM this. Indeed, reports overnight from the high level G-IV
surveillance of the storm found southerly winds of over 30kts blowing across the top of the storm.
The fact that this did not totally destroy Ophelia attests to the very well developed structure of the
storm in the lower levels.

While Ophelia is still only moving at 7mph, it is tracking directly over or near the Gulf Stream -- and
as long as it does so, significant upwelling of cooler waters from below is really not an issue as the Gulf
Stream replenishes the warm oceanic latent heat being removed from the surface water by the storm.

The new 12Z model data has a clearly different 'look' to it, with a wide variation in model track forecast
after 48hrs. Some of the models still call for the storm to move further away from the coast, but others
are now calling for turn westward into the coastline somewhere along the coast from Georgia to the
Carolinas. Until additional model data is available, the track and intensity of the storm will remain
highly uncertain. All interests along the southeast U.S. should maintain a close vigilance on the
storm -- although for now, the threat to Florida still appears to be diminishing. The models effectively
did not catch the slightly greater weakness in the ridge to the north...and this is allowing the storm to take
a more northerly drift verses ENE. That said -- the global models continue to show a re-building of the
ridge to the north of Ophelia by Sunday and Monday -- which will first slow the storm to a crawl -- and
then turn it westward towards the coast early next week. WHERE it will end up is IMPOSSIBLE to
predict - as I think I've said for 5 days now(?).

I'll have another update on the storm this afternoon for all Enhanced Service subscribers, with a full
update this evening.

Steve Gregory
WeatherInsite
Steve.Gregory@WeatherInsite.com

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PIX 1 - Latest HI-RES VIS imagery shows a more circular shape to the storm, with a clearly improved
outflow pattern developing. The overall organization of heavy convection is still not 'there yet' -- and
rapid intensification seems unlikely.

PIX 2 - The 85Ghz microwave scan, while still not showing a core formation,
is starting to show a better intense convective structure around the storm, and
I believe if this trend continues, Ophelia will soon be upgraded to a Hurricane once again.

PIX 3 - Latest initial 12Z model runs are very much in agreement this storm will make landfall in the U.S. - anywhere
from Florida to North Carolina early next week. Typically, the most accurate models are showing the highest
probability to be somewhere along the Georgia to South Carolina coast. For the record - the GFS 06Z model
run shows landfall along the North/South Carolina boarder Tuesday night/Wed morning.

PIX 4 The 12Z intensity forecasts call for Ophelia to regain and then maintain CAT 1 intensity. The
rapid falloff of intensity shown by a few models is a result of the landfall forecast by those
models -- NOT because of a change in the environmental conditions surrounding the storm!

PIX 5 - Official NAVY/NHC Track and Intensity forecast brings Ophelia to the coast as a CAT 1 Hurricane Tuesday
night - in line with the model consensus, but clearly further south than the GFS (Mental note taken.). Personally, I believe
this is an excellent Track and forecast.

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___________________________________________________

SEP 8 - 5:45PM CDT

OPHEILA OFFICIALLY A HURRICANE
BUT SIGNS OF MOVING NORTHEASTWARD

Latest radar and RECON data supports upgrading Ophelia to a hurricane. The storm is still stationary about
70 miles east of Cape Canaveral, near 28.6N / 79.5W, and best estimates are the sustained surface winds
have reached 65Kts in a very small area near the eyewall. For the most part, winds within 20NM of the storm
are around 50mph. The buoy located at 28.5N and 80.2W, some 25-30 miles from the eyewall itself, is
reporting sustained surface winds of 37mph, and gusts to 47mph, down about 5mph in the last few hours.
The pressure has remained steady all day. This combined with the radar loops seem to indicate that Ophelia
may also have begin to drift northeastward away from the coast. It will be another 6 hours though before
we will really know if this is just a 'meander' or truly a new heading.

The latest set of models runs confirm the morning runs that take Opheila slowly out to sea starting tonight and
lasting for about 3 days. After then, all the models are also in general agreement that the storm will go slow down
again and loop back towards the U.S. This was the basic scenario the GFS was showing for the past few
days - in a general sense.

But for now -- it appears that the storm should slowly move away from Florida while it slowly intensifies and
that should result in a decrease of the threat to Florida for the near term.

There will be a full update later tonight.

Steve

Latest Melbourne radar image shows intense convection around the eyewall of Ophelia,
but at the same time, the heavy squalls are staying over the Atlantic east of the coastline. The
latest radar loop is hinting that Ophelia has begin to drift away from the coast at about 3mph.