Tropical Disturbance Threatens Florida And The Gulf Coast

An area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas may soon be upgraded to a tropical depression, with a fair chance that the system could intensify to tropical storm, and possibly hurricane, status by Friday morning. If so, the storm would be called "Jerry", the tenth named tropical cyclone of the 2007 season.

As of now, the disturbance is a cluster of heavy to severe thunderstorms centered over the Bahamas. All computer forecasts show a westward migration of this feature, but differ on its exact path and structure. The Canadian model, for instance, shows a heavy rainmaker that moves inland near Savannah GA, then drifts westward to Louisiana, near Alexandria, before breaking up in about four days. A worst-case scenario is presented by the European scheme, which takes the anticipated Jerry through the southern tip of Florida, then across the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall near Galveston TX, probably as a moderately strong hurricane. The most likely path and intensity scenario is shown by the latest run of the English and two American versions, which has a tropical storm or weak hurricane organizing between the Florida Peninsula and Mississippi Delta region of Louisiana, targeting the southern shoreline of the Bayou State near Venice in about 84 hours (Friday evening).

Judging by its appearance on satellite and position just east of Miami, Florida, it seems likely that we will see at least a tropical storm take shape early Thursday morning to the west of Fort Myers. While the ECMWF scheme may be a bit slow with the passage of what should soon be "Jerry", the trajectory across the very warm waters of the open Gulf of Mexico and lack of vertical shear (note the high pressure area to the north of the convection, which will provide excellent convective outflow and steering), I favor the possibility that we will see a hurricane strike within 250 miles of Sabine Pass later this week. Heavy rainfall, along with waterspouts, will be an issue for much of the Sunshine State through Wednesday, with the threat of more damaging conditions on landfall.