The 2016 Announcement: What City Will Win? NowPublic's Prediction
[UPDATE -- October 2]:
The Games have been awarded to the city of Rio de Janaeiro, just as NowPublic has predicted!
Chicago is already out as of 8:29 PST. Our prediction is holding up so far!
The vote to decide the 2016 Summer Olympic Games capital is taking place tomorrow, October 2. We have maintained our coverage of the 2016 bid over the past two weeks, discussing controversies leading up to the vote. Now, with almost all dust settled and ballots printed, we feel it is time to make a prediction about what country will be picked by the IOC tomorrow to host the Games in 2016.
So, once again, the countries in contention are:
--Brazil: Rio de Janeiro
Let's look at a brief "for-and-against" summary for each city:
--Brazil: Rio de Janeiro
- Brazil's bid enjoys tremendous support from the President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silvablogs about it
- Brazil is the least developed nation out of the four contenders and the IOC was made to make sure that countries like Brazil also get the right to hold the Olympics
- Summer Games have never been held in Latin America
- Brazilians do really want these Games for the most part; IOC gave Brazil one of the best evaluations in its pre-vote evaluation report
- crime level and public safety challenges
- insufficient housing
- **Barack Obama will be a HUGE deciding factor for bid committee; after canceling on his plans to come to Copenhagen to support Chicago's bid, he did find the time anyway, and will fly to Denmark tomorrow morning for just five hours to show his support. But, the fact that he did manage to arrive, shows US is ready to go the extra mile for the Games
- the US has lots of Olympic infrastructure from all the Games it held before
- numerous Olympics have been held in the United States before, so giving yet another Games to the States will seem like an unfair move toward other nations wanting the Olympics
- US's financial problems, but given the current state of economy, every contender has this as a potential problem. But, unlike other cities, Chicago does not have financial support from the federal government
For: good financial backing
- the proximity of Beijing, which held the Olympics in 2008 (usually IOC likes to switch contents from Games to Games)
- low public support in comparison to other contending cities
For: good existing infrastructure
- the proximity to London, which is hosting Summer Games in 2012
- Spanish Olympic Committee VP made inappropriate remarks about the Brazilian bid by saying "Rio is the worst bid." This careless comment might not cost Spain the bid, but it definitely did not help the Spanish Olympic Committee either
The general sentiment is that the vote will be super close. In fact, some IOC members call it the closest vote in recent memory.
So, with everything considered, here is our prediction: The winner of tomorrow's bid will be Rio-de-Janeiro, Brazil.
Watch the announcement live tomorrow on the IOC official website.
The announcement ceremony is scheduled from 6:30 p.m. to 7 p.m. (12:30 p.m. to 1 p.m. EDT).