Abhisit's Challenges Will Start Soon -- Bangkok, Thailand

As soon as Abhisit Vejjajiva was voted in as the next prime minister of Thailand the speculation started as to what he would do to take on the country’s major problems and how effectively he would be able to govern. It may take some time to find out about the latter topic but the challenges he will face early on that will affect his ability to govern would seem at this point to be purely political ones.

In what may be an unrelated development – or not – Thaksin Shinawatra’s diplomatic passport was revoked by the Foreign Ministry yesterday sometime after Abhisit was elected. Coincidence? Possibly, but considering some of the statements that Abhisit and other Democrats have made in the recent past It may be much more than that. It seems that they are determined to continue to aggressively pursue the many corruption charges that have been lodged against Thaksin and the revocation of his diplomatic passport may be part and parcel of that overall effort. It could make it more difficult for him to move around the world (his exact whereabouts are supposedly unkown at the moment) which may aid the Thai government’s efforts to have him extradited back to Thailand to serve the prison sentence he has already received.

There are a number of other former Thai Rak Thai party members and associates of Thaksin who are also charged with various corruption-based crimes and the prosecution of these cases may be expedited now. The Democrats and their allies in and out of government are no doubt eager to rid themselves of as many of Thaksin’s political cronies as possible so that they can permanently weaken his support here and this is one way to do it. So this could be one of Abhisit’s priorities.

On the other hand, though, he’s got to be careful to not be seen as being too vindictive because he has, much like Barack Obama, spoken repeatedly of the need for healing and moving forward as a united nation. If he alienates the considerable number of people who still support Thaksin he risks endangering his efforts to bring people together. So his balancing act will involve being seen both as a uniting influence on the country while at the same time being a reformer who is going to root out corruption.

One thing that may help to ameliorate the situation is the suggestion by Newin Chidchob, Abhisit’s new best friend, that the government spread some cash around in the rural areas much the way Thaksin did when he first took office. Newin seems to think that if the Democrats pay as much attention to the poor as Thaksin did that they would forget Thaksin quickly. He stated this publicly and he’s probably right. If anyone should know it would be him. It will therefore be interesting to see if the new government proposes any programs early on that will benefit the poor.

Another of Abhisit’s immediate concerns will be figuring out how to control the older, more experienced politicians that are part of the coalition that propelled him into power. Newin was banned last year from politics for five years so he can’t hold any official post in the government but his proxies will certainly be involved. And Sanan Kachornprasart, who brought 15 members from the former Chart Thai party to support Abhisit, will almost certainly be a key player in the new government. He also was banned from politics for five years but that was back in 2002. There are many other veteran politicians as well and trying to keep things on the up and up will be a full-time job.

This is because Thai politicians have somehow always seemed to make money while they are in office. To label all Thai politicians as being corrupt would certainly be inaccurate. But being able to discern how many are and how many are not would be extremely difficult to do. The more cynical observers of the Thai political scene would suggest that there are very few who are honest and that may be true. What is certainly true is that it has been a problem in the past and will not disappear completely any time soon. I’ve spoken with several people over the years, most notably a very well-respected member of the Thai business community and a political advisor, and he said that if they could just hold the amount that is stolen to 10% it would be okay. Twenty percent – the amount that most people agree is the standard here – is just too much in his estimation.

The more cynical observers would possibly also note that the lack of income for many politicians over the last three years of upheaval was the main factor that Newin and his Pheu Thai defectors made nice with the Democrats. To wit, the formation of another government dominated by Thaksin supporters would only cause more political upheaval in the country which would hurt the real economy as well as the flow of corruption money to the politicians. You see, for almost the last three years the government has been close to paralysis in terms of being able to move forward with the big infrastructure projects, and many other projects and programs as well, that were planned before March, 2006 when Thaksin stepped down as prime minister.

There are literally hundreds of billions of baht worth of road, train and other projects that were halted and have not been started since then. Twenty percent of a lot of money is still a lot of money. So to get these projects rolling again a stable government had to be formed. Then and only then could the flow of cash get started. Some pundits accused Abhisit of making a deal with the devil but that remains to be seen. What is true, though, is that two of Newin’s followers are to be named the Transport Minister and Deputy Transport Minister. And which ministry oversees large infrastructure projects like roads and trains? You can see why some observers are reaching certain conclusions. Whether the problems will turn out be real or not, Abhisit will have to manage the public perception of this situation very carefully.

This and other similar issues within his own government may end up consuming more of his time than he anticipates and distract him from the real tasks at hand. Anyone who is truly concerned with the future of this country is certainly hoping that this does not occur. Considering the complicated politics involved in many of the decisions Abhisit will be facing soon it will be very helpful for him if he can tap dance as well as he can orate.