Abysmally low turnout likely in Pakistani polls

Agitation may follow elections as no party ready to concede defeat

Agitation may follow general elections in Pakistan, as no political party
seems ready to concede defeat because all parties strongly believe they will
win elections and only 'rigging' can deprive them of victory.

Moreover, an abysmally low voter turnout is likely on the polling day
because the people are reluctant to go to polls in wake of the recent spate
of suicide bombings, assassination of Benazir Bhutto, chairperson of the
largest political party -- Pakistan People's Party (PPP), and failure of
politicians to fulfil the promises which they make during electioneering.

"The voter turnout in the urban centres will be terribly low while it will
be slightly better in the rural areas but the overall turnout will
remarkably low as compared to the previous elections," said Ahmed Nasim, a
political analyst.

"The sense of insecurity because of the rampant suicide bombings in various
parts of the country during the past few months will be the main factor
behind the low turnout while the other main factor is failure of politicians
to come up to people's expectations and fulfil their promises," he added.

Nasim pointed out that in a country where literacy rate is pathetically low,
astonishingly most of the manifestos have been authored in English. He said
that a manifesto is an opportunity for a party to vividly differentiate
itself from others by highlighting its programmatic future strategies but
when majority of electorates could not read or understand English, how could
they know the agenda of a party and support it. "This is another factor
which will definitely affect the turnout," he said.

The fact-finding missions of the Centre for Media and Democracy (CMD) have
also expressed concern that all candidates of the parties partaking in the
elections strongly believed they would win the elections. The have also
pointed out that most of the candidates were unaware of the code of conduct
as they had 'no time' to learn the election rules, procedures or code of
conduct.

"We fear that such a mindset of the political parties could result into
massive agitation after the elections as most of the candidates interviewed
by the CMD fact-finding missions are of the view that they are winning the
elections and only massive rigging by the opponents can defeat them. Now one
can understand that in each race only one candidate can win. The idea that
many candidates appear poised to allege vote rigging if they are
unsuccessful is troubling," said Thomas Houlahan, the head of the
international observer mission of the CMD.

"Moreover, the CMD urges the government, civil society and political parties
to mobilise the public for voting as our survey shows people are reluctant
to go for polling and this can result in low turnout," he said after
completion of visits to Lahore, Karachi and Mardan.

Lahore and Karachi are capital cities of the Punjab and Sindh provinces
respectively while Mardan is one of the major towns of troubled North West
Frontier Province (NWFP).

Flanked by other observers, Houlahan, a distinguished scholar and member of
US think-tank Centre for Security and Science Washington DC, said that most
of the candidates were unaware of the code of conduct and legal procedures.
"Even some were unaware of the limit of expenses during electioneering as
either they had 'no time' to read the code or felt no need to do so," he
said.

The US scholar said most of the candidates taking part in the elections
expressed concerns over the partisan conduct of the authorities but on their
part they were reluctant to learn the laws. "The missions did not find even
a single candidate who would say that he/she is facing a defeat. All the
candidates are reluctant to admit that they can lose the elections and
rather believe only rigging by the opponent candidates can defeat them," he
added.

It is obvious that the regime may resort to use of force against agitators
to quell any agitation that followed the polls and this may further worsen
already volatile situation in the country, which cannot be described in
interest of the country in any way. "The riots which followed assassination
of Benazir Bhutto on December 27 have already badly hurt the economy,"
pointed out Ahmed Nasim. "An agitation after elections may further add to
the economic woes of people, who are already groaning under the unchecked
hike in prices of various essential commodities," he feared.
Referring to a statement of President Pervez Musharraf a couple of days ago
that no agitation would be allowed after elections, the analyst feared that
any strong-arm tactic on part of the government could definitely lead to
chaos in the country. "It is the need of the hour that all stakeholders
adopt a prudent approach in post-elections scenario because the country is
already suffering badly because of the unrest in different regions and spate
of suicide bombings," he commented.