And what after the Gaza Truce?
Facts and opinion.
Until yesterday, it seems that before truce will begin, Hamas tries to show that he will have the last word. Yesterday morning IDF prevented a terror attack by the Army of Islam (an al Qaeda affiliate). In the evening ( 06.17.08, 21:25), 7 qassams where fired on Sderot, see here.
And today..:.”Despite the formal announcements from Jerusalem, Gaza and Cairo announcing the ceasefire agreement will go into effect at 6:00 am on Thursday, it was the routine of incessant attacks Israel’s South awoke to on Wednesday.
With less than 24 hours to go, Palestinian terror groups opened fire at Israelis on the border and launched Qassam rockets towards the western Negev”…, see here,
I, as most people in Israel, consider the proposed 6 months truce as an interlude serving the specific interest of both sides, and afterward, if the truce will last, the Hamas will find his way to embark on a new round of belligerence.
The Israeli press confirm, from his own sources, what most of us think:
..”Less than 24 hours before going into effect, officials say truce expected to be ’short-lived and fragile.’ Olmert’s office says issue of Gilad Shalit part of understandings. ‘We want to make the most of any opportunity to bring peace and quiet to residents of the South, but no one here is cracking open the champagne and declaring Hamas has beaten its swords into plowshares, see here.
And Gaza Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar confirm it with his own words:
..”Speaking after another Hamas official outlined details of the truce at a news conference in Gaza City, Zahar said Hamas would not put down its weapons, because he did not believe Israel would implement the cease-fire. “We don’t trust them, but let’s see,” he said, see here.
A major cause of the Israeli disbelief derive from terrorist fractions as the al-Qiadia affiliate receiving directives from outside The Gaza Strip.
..”Despite the imminent truce, security officials said there was concern that other Palestinian terror factions such as Islamic Jihad or the Army of Islam would try to sabotage the deal by perpetrating a major attack that would force Israel to respond.” see here.
The feeling that the truce is only is only a preparatory act in the future great drama is best expressed by Vice Premier Ramon:
“I oppose the lull, because it’s another victory for radical Islam,” Ramon said. “It won in Lebanon and now it will be winning in Gaza. So why be moderate? After all, why is Hamas seeking an agreement? Because this will be its chance to represent Gaza as Hamastan state.”, see here.
Well what can be anticipated? Al the local actors take their respective place on the stage. Hamas exploit the truce for consolidating his rockets armament to threaten the whole Negev. Hezbollah restoring his grip on south Lebanon under the nose of the UN forces, and rearmed with a formidable arsenal of rockets to threaten north Israel. Syria in peace talks standby. Nuclear Iran, their acknowledged sponsor, funding and arming them, with in her sleeve the belligerent Ahmadinejad.
And Israel, I quote ..”We are giving a chance to the cease-fire, but we are preparing for action,” IDF Chief-of-Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi said during a meeting of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.” see here.
UPDATE 06.18.08, 20:10. (From YNETnews.com)
..."With less than 24 hours to go before the ceasefire, Palestinian terror groups opened fire at Israelis on the border and launched at least 29 Qassam rockets and ten mortar shells towards the western Negev. Seven rockets were fired within the space of 15 minutesand landed in open spaces south of Ashkelon and in the Sderot area, see more.
In the most recent attack a house in Sderot was hit directly, and ten residents suffered from shock. A woman lightly injured her leg while running for cover.
The Air Force (IAF) attacked two different rocket-launching cells in the northern Gaza Strip, which Palestinian sources said were responsible for the rocket barrage. The IDF stated that in both cases hits were identified. "...see more.