World

Anxiety As All Eyes Turn to Tehran

by Patrick Hanlon | June 19, 2009 at 08:11 pm

96 views | 26 Recommendations | 6 comments

A wave of green has washed over the avatars and wardrobes of the world in the last few days as attention becomes more sharply focused on the situation in Iran. After a week of Twitterers and their supporters trying to find a cyber-backdoor to get information out, one of the major turning points of this crisis approaches.

During Friday prayers, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threw his support behind President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, likely tying his fate to the president's. In declaring the election results definitive and warning protesters to bring an end to their activities, a precipice has been approached and the question is if anyone will dare turn back.

Khamenei's fabulations about Zionists and international conspiracy will likely stoke the Basij to prepare for a new level of violence on Saturday. His warnings not to protest may discourage some from participating. However, any protest will be a confident defiance of the Supreme Leader and give more momentum to Mousavi and his supporters. Gwynne Dyer noted earlier this week that Iranians, being Shia Muslim, revere martyrs. If the Basij or some other military group attack on Saturday, the opposition will add to their number of martyrs and further undermine Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.

At this point in the post-election tumult, the main movements will have to take place among the clerics. There have been increased reports of a deepening fissure among the clerics. If these are true then the divisions will either threaten the credibility of the Guardian Council and other unelected committees, or lead to Khamenei's removal from office.

Khamenei played his trump card during Friday prayers by issuing his ultimatum and supporting Ahmadinejad. It will be time for other key figures in the murky background to make their moves and determine what happens next as events unfold. The public can only continue to demonstrate their desire and resolve to see change.

Regardless of the outcome of the protests in Iran tomorrow, it is clear that the Iranian population have captured the imagination of the world with their brave defiance over the last seven days. They have made it clear that they are not their government's people and may in this past week have taken great strides toward restoring their proud, ancient nation to a place of respect and admiration that the Islamic Republic squandered.

And so, we hold our breath...

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Blue Crush

at 22:16 on June 19th, 2009

Showdown 4 p.m. Tehran time.

albertacowpoke

at 01:46 on June 20th, 2009

Will be up to monitor it closely:)

hidflect

at 04:37 on June 20th, 2009

I'm a bit cautious to assume this election was rigged. Plenty of "plain" folk in the country would've voted for Ahmadinejad (gotta copy and paste this guy's name always). Maybe they're getting drowned out by the liberal intelligentsia being far away as they are from the Twittering Crowd. I'm not in favour of any hard-line Islamists myself but if the majority of the country wants it that way... well that's what a democracy is.

Now to contradict myself; when I watched Ahmadinejad giving some speech, although his words came through a translator it just seemed to me like he was fibbing by his facial movements when talking about the election. I think he's a guy who doesn't lie much and so he's consequently bad at it when he does.

Patrick Hanlon

at 05:19 on June 20th, 2009

When I was in Tehran shortly after Ahmadinejad's election in 2005 no one was hesitant to speak out against him. This might have been the company I kept, I was among people who were better educated, but between that feedback, everyone's experience with him as mayor of Tehran prior to the presidency and the actions of the Guuardian Council I'm still suspicious of not only the 2009 but also the 2005 outcomes.

hidflect

at 05:47 on June 20th, 2009

@Patrick:

I think you are raising the bigger point. What about a country that's split into 2 societies? How can the "city folk" and the down-home country conservatives be voting on the same stuff?

I spent 2 months working on a true-blue Aussie farm and got the eye-opener of my life. The farmer told me in his sincerely modest way that he has to be a horticulturalist, a chemist, a vet, a mechanic, an accountant, a weather forecaster, a gambler, a husband and a welder (not in THAT order!). How the hell does that relate to a city dweller who is a (say) French Restaurant waiter? How can they not occlude each other?

I was surprised to see that many claim America was never originally defined as a democracy. It was a Republic. I'm still coming to terms with that. Did the American forefathers see the perils of the idea of a democracy?

Patrick Hanlon

at 06:09 on June 20th, 2009

I can't answer that directly. I did, however come across a profile article in the deluge of coverage this week that suggested that, despite the economic differences between north and south in Tehran, there is a great deal of commonality. The economy has been an issue that has effected everyone in the country and would have swayed people to vote against Ahmadinejad.