Apple Goes "Nuclear": A Sub $1K Laptop?

Apple ends every press release with the boiler plate line that the company "ignited" the personal computer revolution. And with Tuesday's new family of laptops, the company may pull the nuclear option: a sub-$1,000 laptop.

I'm expecting an $899 MacBook model, based on the sources I'm talking to.

Why nuclear? Because it stands to have an explosive impact on the PC market. A device not too expensive that it alienates an ever more skittish consumer; not too cheap, ala sub-$500, that it soils the aspirational brand that Apple has become; but a high-end, slick device with the Apple bloodline priced just right that a big chunk of the market goes for it whether its mildly uncomfortable doing so or not. The Goldilocks price point.

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Apple's [AAPL  104.99    8.19  (+8.46%)   ] cheapest laptop today is the $1,099 MacBook. But wow, what a difference psychologically that extra $200 would make.

I've spoken to several people inside and outside Apple about what to expect, and while no one is ready to go on the record about any of this, they're all telling me the same thing: Apple is ready to play in sub-$1k. That's a big deal and about time.

There had been some wild, recent speculation that Apple would dip below $500 with a new laptop, or some high-end, whiz-bang mobile computing device that would blow away the market with its slickness, capabilities and design. Umm, Apple already has that device, last I checked, at $199. It's called the iPhone. I'd be stunned if Apple released a laptop anywhere near iPhone's price-point.

However, a sub-$1k Apple laptop makes perfect sense. Falling microprocessor and flash memory prices can let Apple release such a device without torpedoing profit margins in the process. Mac fanatics will still pay top dollar for the latest, most powerful machines Apple has to offer--because that's what they do--while the sub-$1k opens the Apple brand, cache and capabilities to a whole new sector of the marketplace. Who then stand a good chance of becoming the next generation of Mac fanatics who turn around and pay top--or at least higher --dollar for their next laptop when the time comes to trade up.

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Still, Apple has a tough balancing act to play. The $899 MacBook runs the risk of cannibalizing much more expensive offerings, especially if it looks much like those pricier models. Apple runs the risk of dramatically lowering its average selling prices, those pesky ASP's analysts are always talking about. That's the negative. The positive is what such a price-point might do for Apple's broader business, dramatically increasing sales volume, and again, seeding a new generation of Mac fanatic.

Apple shares jumped big time on Friday because of their paltry valuation. Today they're jumping because of the whiff of fundamentals creeping its way back through Wall Street. Business continues in Cupertino despite the Wall Street Tsunami. Innovation continues in Cupertino as well. Back to back rallies don't mean Apple share are finally back, or that traders have somehow found religion when it comes to Apple shares.

The company reports earnings a week from Tuesday as well. This is a key news cycle for Apple, and things seem to be lining up nicely