Is An Attack On Iran Imminent?
I am sure over the last few years there have been many "imminent" warnings of an attack on Iran, many people claiming that it was about to happen. But, never before have we seen so many warning signs appear so rapidly and close together. In the last month many reports of green lights and massing of troops and materiel have surfaced.
Recently Saudi Arabia gave Israel permission to fly over to strike Iran. A US Carrier group was seen transiting the Suez Canal with IDF naval vessels on their way to the Persian Gulf. News agencies have reported that IAF jets have landed at airfields in Saudi Arabia and that nuclear armed Israeli submarines are stationed off of Iran. There are currently as many as three US Carrier groups in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea and US Troops have been reported to be massing in Azerbaijan.
What does all this mean? The possibility of a joint strike on Iran by US and Israeli forces occurring in 2010, looks more possible than ever. The United States and Israel claim that Iran, a signer of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is attempting to enrich Uranium for production of nuclear weapons. This claim is denied by Tehran, who says they are only enriching for the peaceful production of nuclear power. Despite the fact that no real evidence has been found to show that Iran has or has the capacity to create Weapons of Mass Destruction and reports by the the 16 agency US Intelligence Community have stated this, the White House continues to assert this position.
Many would find this reminiscent of the 2003 claims that Iraq had WMDs and the following invasion of the country on these grounds. After the invasion it was discovered that Iraq never possessed these weapons, a fact that President Bush later admitted.
President Barack Obama campaigned on withdrawal from Iraq and a more diplomatic stance with Iran. After taking office he became a completely different man than the one he pretended to be during his campaign. Since his inauguration the American people have seen not only a continuance of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but an escalation of both wars. They have also seen a new war in Pakistan materialize. Mr. Obama has authorized more drone strikes in Pakistan in his one and a half years in office, than the previous president had in 8 years. It has also been reported that there are 200 US Special forces personnel on the ground in Pakistan, a presence confirmed by the deaths of three US soldiers in the country.
So, if our new president has been this aggressive fighting the "Global War on Terror", we can expect him to take a just as aggressive stance with Iran. The United States Congress on Thursday passed a new bill approving the latest set of United Nations sanctions against Iran, and the president is expected to sign it.
It should be noted that Iran is much larger and more populated than Iraq and Afghanistan, and It has a very large and modern military. Contrary to what some believe, a conflict in Iran will not be a cake walk. Many Americans will die and many innocents will be caught in the crossfire. An attack on Iran could spur a much larger conflict in the region and may not stay contained in one country. In response to an attack, Iran could close the Straight of Hormuz, which could be crippling to the US economy and drive gasoline prices sky high.
Ask yourselves these questions. Is it really worth it? Is it necessary? Do more people need to die? Who would benefit from this conflict?
When will this war begin? Time will tell, but these recent revelations of US and Israeli military activities offer us clues that it may be sooner then we think.