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BC Election 2009 Results: Liberal 'Majority' Win by the Numbers
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by Tina Kells | May 13, 2009 at 10:18 am
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I am an analytical person by nature so when I saw the voting statistics from the 2009 BC Election I was curious: With a record low 52.26% provincial voter turnout just how much support did the Liberals really win with their 46.02% “majority” victory?
A quick bit of math reveals the answer.
Voting results in the 2009 BC provincial election:
Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals earned 707,911 votes; or 46.02% of the 1,538,275 ballots cast and counted as of May 13, 2009.
Carol James and the NDP earned 646,523 votes; or 42.03% of the 1,538,275 ballots cast and counted as of May 13, 2009.
Jane Sterk and the Green Party earned 124,567 votes; or 8.10% of the 1,538,275 ballots cast and counted as of May 13, 2009.
All other parties in the province combined earned the remaining 59,274 votes; or 3.85% of the 1,538,275 ballots cast and counted as of May 13, 2009.
The 2009 population breakdown in BC by voting status is:
Total population of BC, all ages, eligible and ineligible to vote: 4,446,600
Total number of British Columbians eligible to vote: 3,234,504
Total number of British Columbians registered to vote on the day the election writ dropped (April 14, 2009): 2,943,399
Total number of registered voters who voted in the 2009 BC Election: 1,538,275
Each ballot cast in the 2009 BC election represents 2.89 British Columbians who either did not, or could not, vote (total population divided by number of votes cast: 4,446,600/1,538,275). In short little more than 1 in 3 British Columbians had a voice in this election.
As if a 46.02% “majority” win is not insulting enough to the ideal of democracy, when you crunch the numbers in terms of total representation, the Liberal “majority” looks even worse.
Of the 1,538,275 (representing 34.59% of the total population) of British Columbians who actually voted, the “active voting population” the Liberals have 46.02% of voter support (Total votes for the Liberals divided by number of votes cast: 707,911/1,538,275).
Of the 2,943,399 (representing 66.19% of the total population) of British Columbians who registered to vote, the “registered voter population,” the Liberals have the active support of 24.05% of the people (Total votes for the Liberals divided by number of people registered to vote: 707,911/2,943,399).
Of the 3,234,504 (representing 72.74% of the total population) of British Columbians who are eligible to vote, the “eligible voting population of BC,” the Liberals have the active support of 21.89% of the people (Total votes for the Liberals divided by number of people eligible to vote: 707,911/3,234,504).
Of the 4,446,600 (100% of the total population) people of all ages who live in the province of British Columbia the Liberals have the active support of 15.92% of the people (Total votes for the Liberals divided by Total population of BC: 797,911/4,446,600).
* active support meaning the number of people who directly voted for a member of the Liberal party.
The party by party breakdowns are as follows:
Percentage of Active Voting Population Support (people who went out and voted)
Liberals – 46.02%
NDP – 42.03%
Greens – 8.10%
All Others – 3.95%
Percentage of Registered Voter Population Support (people who registered to vote, those who cast a ballot and those who did not)
Liberals – 24.05%
NDP – 21.97%
Greens – 4.23%
All Others – 2.01%
Percentage of the Eligible Voting Population Support (people who could have registered to vote, including those who cast a ballot and those who did not)
Liberals – 21.89%
NDP – 19.99%
Greens – 3.85%
All Others – 1.83%
Percentage of Total Population Support (total people in the province of BC, both those who are eligible to vote and those who are not)
Liberals – 15.92%
NDP – 14.54%
Greens – 2.80%
All Others – 1.33%
Can Not/Did Not Vote – 65.41%
The numbers don’t lie. Voter apathy in the 2009 BC Election was telling; only 52.26% of people who were eligible to vote bothered to do so. This was down even further from the previous all time low in the 2001 election of 55%, making BC a province with one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the country.
Another compelling, yet quietly ignored, number that is worthy of mention is the comparison of the raw numbers of Liberal support in 2009 compared to 2005. In 2005 the BC Liberals earned 807,118 votes; in 2009 that dropped by nearly 100,000 votes to 707,911. This means that nearly 100,000 fewer British Columbians directly supported the Liberals this time around. To be fair, support for the NDP was also down by little more than 85,000 votes (731,719 verses 646,523).
When you break the active support for the parties down in terms of total provincial population Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals speak for less than 16% of total British Columbians, yet they hold 57.6% of the balance of power in the legislature – a slim but decisive majority.
Ironically, the 57.6% majority that gives the Liberals dictatorial reign over the province is the same margin by which the BC-STV vote was defeated when it was last put to referendum. In 2005, 58% of British Columbians voted yes to the BC-STV but it was defeated because 60% was required for it to pass.
In 2009 the BC-STV did much worse than in 2005, earning the support of only 40% of British Columbians, but one has to wonder if the obvious voter apathy played some role in that decline. There is a strong sense of “my vote doesn’t count” in BC politics and no party leader in the past 3 elections has been able to inspire enough excitement or outrage to change that perception.
Gordon Campbell has won a hat trick as Premier of BC, something done by only three other party leaders in provincial history; WWI era provincial Conservative leader Richard McBride, the immensely popular and highly charismatic W.A.C "wacky" Bennett, and most recently W.A.C Bennett's son, Bill Bennett (a mere 26 years ago). While Bill Bennett rode in to his third term in office on a wave of popularity, Campbell has sailed in on a red tide of apathy.
The final tally will not be in until May 27, 2009 and the above statistics may adjust slightly but when all is said and done the Liberal majority is an illusion.
The Liberal Party of BC represents less than 16% of the total population of the province, a province in which barely 1 in 3 people actually have a voice, and that is not at all in keeping with the spirit of a true democracy.
Only in BC does 58% support for a referendum initiative equal loss while 46.02% support for a party means triumphant win. Only 6.02% more voters chose the BC Liberals than voted in favour of the Single Transferable Vote this time around (46.02% and 40% respectively) - neither the Liberals nor the BC-STV had a majority of voter support yet only one lost. It is a sad day in democracy when a minority rules with the power of a majority.
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Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (10)
at 11:03 on May 13th, 2009
I'm not sure I understand your 'illusion' unless you suggest that we leave 65% of the seats empty. The liberals won an active majority - you say so yourself, meaning that of those people who cared to get out to vote the liberals were the favorite in 50 of the 85 ridings, and of 4% more of the active voters than the NDP supporters.
If we were to look at leaving these seats empty would that serve the people of BC any better?
at 11:07 on May 13th, 2009
Even among active voters there is no majority - they only hold 46.02% of that support and a true majority is 50%+.
As you can see I break it down and show the numbers in four categories of population breakdown and the Liberals do not hold a majority in any classification.
They have the MOST support but this is not the same as the MAJORITY.
They should have 46.02% of the seats, which is only 4% more than the NDP, and not nearly as decisive as the near 57.6% majority that they hold in the legislature.
at 11:36 on May 13th, 2009
This is a nice breakdown of statistics. I see the point you are trying to make. In order to make every vote count, the people need to push for proportional representation. I would support that in federal politics as well. The votes cast, are taken as a percentage and each party is allocated seats proportionally, provided that they have won at least 5% of the electorates votes.
Unfortunately, for the time being we live with this system. The other problem, of course, is the issue of voter turnout. It is a sad comment on democracy if only 52% bother to vote. That means 48% either thought they didn.t have a voice or there vote wouldn.t matter anyways. I think the voter turnout in Alberta was even less during the last election.
Good work on the stats Tina.
at 11:40 on May 13th, 2009
Good breakdown - I'm still upset the Liberals won...
at 12:24 on May 13th, 2009
I'm upset that the majority of BC voters lost... nearly 54% of us voted for a party that was not the Liberals. :(
at 13:39 on May 13th, 2009
What the low turnout and the statistics analysis demonstrates is that neither of the two lead parties have support from the populace, which usually means, 'don't do much'.
I do agree with a couple of the pundits who have pointed out that the big issue, the economy, meant that the status quo was maintained. The Liberals have a slim majority yet enough to do damage. The NDP still represents a significant number of British Columbiansm but didn't capture enough seats to block legislation.
Voter disgust was apparent at the polling station where I was scrutineering because so few people showed up to vote, and it had 8 polls! I read an entire novel - One Thousand Splendid Suns - in the ten hours I was there.
There are no bright lights in BC politics. Until there are, we can probably expect low turnouts.
I would really like to see all the parties go through a deep house cleaning, get rid of the old (literally) and let the new (people in their thirties, forties and maybe a couple in their early fifties) take over. And not only as candidates.
As long as the old backroom crews continue to reign, we may see younger faces up front, but nothing will truly change.
at 13:45 on May 13th, 2009
I think it's fair to say those of us partaking in this conversation all voted, and I think most of us did not vote for the Liberals. I didn't. At the same time I think it's important to note that the popular vote is not quite accurate to the proportion of the population that wants a particular party in power. There are some ridings which are heavily leaning in one direction or the other which will sway the popular vote.
But to be concerned about a party not achieving the a popular majority seems rather un-Canadian. It's far more rare for a party to actually acheive a popular majority than not in this country. In fact 42% seems to be the number needed to acheive a majority of seats whether that be Provincial or Federal. And, the more parties involved usually means the lower the vote % required.
Some form of proportional representation would change the results, but in the end the proportional representation system scares politicians and voters alike it seems.
On another note, perhaps if the Canucks weren't in the playoffs British Columbians may have been more interested in the election... Or maybe I'm just dreaming.
at 14:23 on May 13th, 2009
"On another note, perhaps if the Canucks weren't in the playoffs British Columbians may have been more interested in the election... Or maybe I'm just dreaming."
LOL - I agree!!
For me the big issue isn't that they are ruling without a majority; it is that they say "we have the majority of the support of BCers" when in fact, they do not. They won a majority of the ridings but some ridings are smaller than others and this is not reflected in the current system. The fact that the party arrogantly claims a majority of support when they are far from that level of support is an issue for me.
at 17:57 on May 13th, 2009
I think that there just wasn't enough awareness of what the STV was about I only hear the radio saying it was a bad thing and I saw canvassers for it only once, like 2 months ago!!! Other then my own research I only saw a few "vote stv" signs on peoples lawns. I think BC totally dropped the ball on this one.
at 12:25 on May 14th, 2009
Your comment strikes a real chord with me. I think that people have been badly educated, not only on the STV, but also on how our system works in general. The idea that the only effective government is an elected dictatorship is crazy to me... I think that a minority government is the best kind. Sure, things may take longer to happen but partisan politics and patronage are seriously disabled when different sides of an issue have to listen to and respect the points raised by the other. I prefer a slow government that makes measured decisions based on all sides of an issue to a fast moving government that ignores huge parts of a population and does what it wants when it wants.
I wonder how many Liberal supporters know that Campbell will be privatizing BC Hydro and selling the rights to our water ways? How is that good for BC?