BC Provincial Liberal supporters "firmer"

Liberals enter provincial campaign with double-digit lead Jonathan Fowlie, Vancouver Sun Published: Monday, March 23, 2009

VICTORIA - The B.C. Liberal Party leads the New Democrats by a double-digit margin with only three weeks to go before the official start of the provincial campaign, a new poll by Ipsos Reid has found. The poll found the Liberals have the support of 46 per cent of B.C. voters, up two points from a poll done by the same firm last November. The NDP has 35 per cent support, which is unchanged from November. The Green Party has 15 per cent support.

The result is virtually unchanged from similar Ipsos Reid polls over the last two years, and gives the Liberals exactly the same support they had at the point of the election in 2005. But a spokesman for Ipsos Reid said that doesn't necessarily mean B.C.'s political landscape isn't changing. "I would say things are beginning to firm up," said Kyle Braid, vice president of Ipsos Reid. "This result -- three weeks away -- makes the Liberals the favourites to win the next election," he added. Braid pointed out the poll also showed the Liberals have the firmest vote of all three major parties. Of those who said they support the Liberals, Braid said almost 70 per cent said it was "very likely" they would vote that way on the May 12 election day. For the NDP, that was about 60 per cent. Fewer than half of current Green supporters said they are "very likely" to cast a vote for the Greens on election day.

On Monday, representatives of both parties approached the results with similar tones of cautious optimism. "It is a reflection of what we're hearing," said Liberal house leader Mike de Jong. "People are focused on the economy and I believe have a clear sense of which party and which leader they think is best equipped to lead the province through some challenging economic times," he added. NDP house leader Mike Farnworth said he thinks the result shows the NDP are well within reach of victory. "Clearly they have a lead, but I think that gap will close,"

Farnworth said, pointing to the 15 per cent support for the Green Party as one area the NDP can make significant gains. "I expect it will be a much closer election on election night," he said. "I think we're going to have a very competitive race." The poll also found 53 per cent of people believe the province is "heading in the right direction," something Braid said will work in the Liberal's favour. "It gives the government the flexibility to run on their record and win," he said, adding they don't necessarily need to reinvent themselves for the campaign.

The poll also looked at the popularity of both party leaders, finding them both to be hovering at about 50 per cent support. The poll found that 50 per cent approve of the job Premier Gordon Campbell is doing, while 52 per cent approve of Carole James. James' disapproval rating has increased recently, however, with 38 per cent of people saying they don't approve of her performance. In November, James' disapproval was 34 per cent. Just after the last election, in Sept. 2005, it was 23 per cent. Currently 47 per cent of people say they disapprove of the job Campbell is doing. The poll was conducted by phone between March 10 and March 15 among 800 randomly selected British Columbians. It is considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. jfowlie@vancouversun.com