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Betting windows are open on Palin withdrawal
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by dunkelberg | September 2, 2008 at 01:04 pm
567 views | 26 Recommendations | 15 comments
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Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. The Sarah Palin commodiy market is open.
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Now the Democrats aren't the only ones who can try to capitalize on the negative buzz growing around Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the prospective Republican VP candidate.
Intrade, an online prediction market based in Dublin, created a contract Tuesday morning on the likelihood that John McCain will drop Palin
While the odds have been rising, they still are pretty low.
After opening at a probability of just 3%, the odds on Palin being cut from the ticket climbed to 18% around 9 a.m. and have since settled at around 12%.
Intrade says traders requested the contract as controversial news continued to surface about Palin. It cited Palin's daughter's situation and Palin's involvcment with a group that raised corporate funds for Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska).
Placing a Palin withdrawal at even 12% seems bullish; no presidential candidate has withdrawn his VP selection since Thomas Eagleton left Democratic candidate George McGovern's ticket in 1972.
Intrade has demonstrated some success in predicting political choices (forecasting the selection of Biden), but also volatility: Palin's chances of landing the nomination vacillated wildly in the hours before McCain announced the pick in the late afternoon.
However, she still fares excellently in another area, where traders have her at 97% in the GOP VP nomination market. The head of the trading firm speculates many traders are playing both markets.
Intrade monitors its traders' demographics, but it's too early to tell who's betting on a Palin pullout. Some of the naysayers could be Republicans: Rigetti says that, unlike polls, the election markets don't always represent political beliefs. "People have a real money incentive," he says. "They're betting with their head and not their heart."
At close of business on Tuesday:
Palin will be withdrawn 14.2 (+11.2)
Obama will win presidency 61.3 (+1.2)
McCain will win presidency 38.5 (-1.3)
Hurricane Hanna to make first Landfall as Category 2 or Higher in South Carolina 15.0 (-15.0)
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Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (15)
at 14:05 on September 2nd, 2008
dunkelberg, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 14:13 on September 2nd, 2008
Thanks!
at 14:22 on September 2nd, 2008
Good stuff, Dunkelberg.
at 14:26 on September 2nd, 2008
merci
at 16:37 on September 2nd, 2008
dunkelberg, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 16:38 on September 2nd, 2008
Thanks!
at 19:29 on September 2nd, 2008
dunkelberg, I like this story. It's good stuff.
Both, Mc Cain and Palin may want to leave in a hurry if the Republican even want to have a chance at winning the Presidency. Get Collin P. In there and Susan Eisenhower, Than the RP may have a chance.
at 19:32 on September 2nd, 2008
Thanks for the flag. Susan Eisenhower looks good.
I fear Gen. Powell is damaged goods and knows it, at least for now. He still is covered with the stench of Bush. It is a shame as a good man has been left tarnished but the real evildoers.
at 19:37 on September 2nd, 2008
she'll drop him if at all
it'll dig a hole for mccain too
at 21:11 on September 2nd, 2008
dunkelberg, I like this story. It's good stuff.
Better she stays in the race i guess. Good for Barack Obama, he will be the next president of the USA.
http://www.nowpublic.com/world/why-barack-obama-should-be-next-president-usa
at 21:18 on September 2nd, 2008
Thanks for the GS and the photos.
Yep, that link is a good read.
Danku.
Doeii!
at 23:12 on September 2nd, 2008
See also: http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1766638341
at 04:25 on September 3rd, 2008
Thanks!
Evangelicals not separating church and state? I am shocked. SHOCKED! I tell you.
at 07:33 on September 3rd, 2008
You know, I don't remember the term, "separation or curch and state" anywhere in the constitution, could you find it for me? I thought the establishment clause was that the country would not be governed by a state religion. Last time I checked America was never rulled by a church. Am I missing something. I guess the founding Fathers were not talking about the church of England and religious freedom. They must have implyed that we shouldn't have any aspect of faith in our country. Shame they prayed before the opening of their sessions.
at 08:53 on September 3rd, 2008
"There you go again."
I sense someone is trying to deflate my hyperbole. However, I will explain my use of that tired and relatively true expression.
In this case, the governor of the state is politicking as part of the the functions of an organization which (I admit I am assuming here) holds a tax deferment as a religious organization. In the past few years, the IRS has threatened investigations into the tax exempt status of several churches (including Sen. Obama's) and even pulled the tax exempt status one church (yes, it was a conservative church who had funded an anti-Clinton ad). Ever since then, religious and non-religious activist groups of all stripes have shouldered the IRS as a weapon against political proselytizing in church.
Here are some examples:
http://www.kfor.com/global/story.asp?s=8336152
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/18/AR2005111802501.html
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2006/09/1/church_politics_and_the_irs/
http://www.ethicsdaily.com/article_detail.cfm?AID=10156
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=56418
http://www.christianitytoday.com/yc/8y4/8y4060.html
http://www.au.org/site/PageServer?pagename=resources_pastorsguide#
Now, how about school vouchers for fundamenatalist, extremist Islamic madras schools? Can you give them to one and not the other?