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U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment: Iran Has Not Decided to Pursue Building Nuclear Weapons

In two hearings this week, and in a lengthy, prepared annual global threat assessment, representing the views of the entire intelligence community, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper was very careful {not} to say that Iran has a nuclear weapons program. 


In his prepared statement, he said: "We assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons, in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons."


Clapper went on to say that Iran has developed the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, "making the central issue its political will to do so." 


This includes the technical capability to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon, "if it so chooses."



Clapper repeated these formulations numerous times before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday and again, today, in front of the House Intelligence Committee. He expressed the "hope" that sanctions "would have the effect of inducing a change in the Iranian policy towards their apparent pursuit of a nuclear capability."


The intelligence community's assessment that Iran has not yet decided to proceed with the development of a nuclear weapon was highlighted by a series of questions put to the witnesses by Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Me.), on Tuesday. 


Clapper said, in response to Snowe, that Iran is certainly moving on that path (meaning in terms of the technological capacity), but "we don't believe they've actually made the decision to go ahead with a nuclear weapon." 


A clear indicator of such a decision, he said, would be the enrichment of uranium to the 90-percent level, something which the Iranians have not yet decided to do.


The House hearing today was characterized much more by belligerence than the Senate hearing on Tuesday. Several members of the House committee swung the alleged plot against the Saudi ambassador around as if it were a club. It had been mentioned in the Senate hearing but not followed up. 


The tone was set by Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.), who asked CIA Director David Petraeus what could possibly have emboldened the Iranian regime to undertake such a plot. 


Petraeus said he couldn't account for the thinking behind the plot but added: "I would hope that the interruption, the disruption of this plot, and when the legal case comes out and so forth, will give pause to the Quds Force as they contemplate further such activities."


Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), the committee chairman, pursued a line of questioning not only on the Saudi plot, but more generally in an effort to portray Iran as the leading sponsor of terrorism in the world, even though Clapper's description of the global jihad threat doesn't support such a contention. 


Rogers, like Sen. Dan Coats (R-Ind.) on Tuesday, indicated his belief that the Obama Administration doesn't really mean it when it says that "all options are on the table" for dealing with Iran, and the Iranians don't believe it either. Clapper disabused him of that notion when he pointed out the change in Iranian rhetoric with respect to their threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, when the US made it clear that that was unacceptable. "But I do think they -- they have respect for what [inaudible] potential capabilities are here," he said.


What was particularly noteworthy in the 31-page declassified global threat assessment document, was that no mention was made of any Iranian effort to actually "weaponize" the enriched uranium. 


In the Nov. 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, it was concluded that Iran had halted all work on weaponization in 2003, and had not yet resumed that effort. An Oct. 2011 update on the 2007 NIE made no change in that estimate. In his testimony, Clapper only discussed Iran's enrichment and the fact that it has developed advanced ballistic missiles.


Today, the IAEA inspectors returned to Vienna from Iran after three days of intense discussions with Iranian officials. As soon as they arrived at the Vienna international airport, they held a press conference to report that the visit had been very productive, and that a follow-up trip to Iran would be taking place soon.