Bombing Campaign Against Iran 'Within Weeks'

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THE HAGUE - A highly successful operation inside Iran's 'arms industry' by Dutch intelligence service AIVD, aimed at disruption and sabotage, has been halted and Dutch intelligence personnel has been withdrawn because of a planned attack by the US on Iran within weeks. Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf says AIVD's intelligence on Iran has been shared with the CIA in recent years.

The US intends to carry out an aerial bombing campaign against Iran within weeks, credible sources say. The campaign will be directed against crucial sections of Iran's nuclear facilities as well as against the country's military command and control structure. Analysts expect Iran to attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation, although a very substantial US-led Western naval force is on its way to the Persian Gulf to prevent that.

 

Armada

Recently a naval blockading exercise by US, British and French naval forces, termed 'Operation Brimstone'  took place in the Atlantic, and the bulk of the forces that made up the exercise are on their way to the Gulf Region, to team up with other US naval forces. In the near future, the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its Carrier Strike Group Two, the USS Ronald Reagan  and its Carrier Strike Group Seven, the USS Abraham Lincoln and its Carrier Strike Group Nine, the USS Peleliu and its expeditionary strike group, the USS Iwo Jima and its expeditionary strike group, the British HMS Ark Royal carrier battle group, the French nuclear hunter-killer submarine Amethyste and French Naval Rafale fighter jets on-board the USS Theodore Roosevelt, and a host of guide missile frigates, cruisers and destroyers as well as support units, are expected to be in position near Iran.

 

Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in case it is attacked. An estimated one-third of the world's oil supplies are transported through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Reliable sources say neither the US nor Israel will be able to take out Iran's nuclear program completely, given the number of Iranian facilities involved as well as their geographical spread, and in a number of cases their underground location: thus it would suffice to take out the program's 'critical nodes' in order to set back Iran's program significantly.

 

S-300 initial deployment

According to analysts, at least one of two strongly deterrent aspects of Iran's defences may have been sufficiently diminished for US decision-makers to go ahead: Israel has gathered a wealth of information about Iran's Russian-made S-300 air defence systems, which are considered to be the most powerful in the world. S-300 air defence systems can simultaneously track hundreds of semi-stealth cruise missiles, long range missiles and aircraft. 

 

From late May to early June, the Israeli Air Force carried out an exercise called ‘Glorious Spartan’ over Crete, in conjunction with the Greek Air Force. Greece, like Iran, has S-300 systems. Israel swarmed over a hundred of its fighter planes into Greece's S-300 radars, and is expected to have shared its analysis of the operational, tactical and strategic workings with the US. Greece’s S-300s are some ten years old, Iran’s are brand-new and thus even more advanced. Sources say Western intelligence services estimate that S-300 systems in Iran will be fully operational by year’s end, but that initial deployment has already begun.

A month after operation ‘Glorious Spartan’ the US navy extensively tested the communications network supporting its Aegis missile defence system across the Middle East.

 

Coastal defences

The second strongly deterrent aspect of Iran's weaponry consists of the country's coastal defences. Iran possesses a very large number of state-of-the-art Russian-made anti-ship-missiles that are estimated to have the ability to incapacitate or even sink aircraft carriers. It is unclear which tactics may be employed against these weapons, in case of an attack.

Military analysts speculate that an aerial campaign will first aim at taking out Iran’s coastal and aerial defences, followed by a very large number of sorties to destroy at least the ‘critical nodes’ in Iran’s nuclear program. Israel would not partake, as it would need a substantial part of its assets to guard its Syrian and Lebanese borders, given the tremendous upheaval that an attack on Iran would cause in the Middle East.