Bulletin from Texas: Here we go and go and go and go!

by dunkelberg | March 4, 2008 at 09:48 am
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FORT WORTH, TEXAS 17:17 CST 23:17 GMT

Polls will be closing here in less than two hours, and both sides of the Democrtic presidential race are charging the other is tying to do an end run around the "Texas Two-Step" primary.

After casting ballots today, Democrats have to return to the polling places for a "precinct convention" to cast a vote for a second round of delegates (about one third of the pledged amount).  To get around that, poll watchers for both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama say the other side is using copies of the sign up sheet to gather names in advance.  Voters are required to return and sign in in person after the polls close. 

In the meantime, turnout is reported to be heavy across much of the state.  Weather is no problem in Texas, as it may be in Ohio. 

FORT WORTH, TEXAS --Well, the sun is out. The temperature this morning is a crisp (6°/43°), but not prohibitively cold, and the skies are clear across the state. All this means a likely record turnout in a primary election (probably will beat the general election turnout in some years).

What does it mean? Polls show things are very, very tight. The latest is from Zogby.

On the strength of some strong campaigning in Ohio and Texas, Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York has retaken a narrow lead over rival Barack Obama of Illinois in Texas, and has dead-locked the race in Ohio, a new Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle survey by Zogby International shows.

photo of Barack ObamaThis has led one of my friends who is a Barack Obama cheerleader to concede that the senator from Illinois may not give Hillary Clinton the coup de grâce on which the Obamadillos™ were counting (though I question how much mercy might be behind that death blow).

"I unfortunately have to tell you guys that I THINK this will be razor thin," she said (she often talks in capital letters).

"He may win Texas and Vermont, and she will win Ohio and Rhode Island.

"She said last night on Jon Stewart (The Daily Show on Comedy Central - ed.) if its close like it is now she has to stay in for the other big states and said she'd stay in for Pennsylvania (188 delegates-ed), and thats April 22nd.

"So NOTHING will be resolved today!"

photo of Hillary ClintonHow could Sen. Clinton pull off a last-minute touchdown? It's easier to explain than why someone who is not a sports fan is using a football metaphor. One reason is that Clinton has really put the push on the last few weeks. She and her supporters know it is a do or die situation, and they may get by with a little help from their enemies.

Texas does not require folks to register by party affiliation. So, in the Lone Star State, and apparently the Buckeye State, folks get to pick their races. Yep, that means part of a Sen. Clinton victory could Clinton haters setting up what they believe will be a canned hunt for the GOP in November.

Anti-war protestorsPlus, truth be told, the anti-war cannot see straight when it comes to Sen. Clinton. She is the devil to them, plain and simple, as she will not apologize for her vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq. Possibly the only thing these moderate to liberal Democrats might have in common with the right to far-right Republican Clinton haters. Vilification is such a bonding thing.

If my friend's prediction holds true*, nothing will be resolved only after a long, long wait.

Here's why. Turnout has been phenomenal in Texas.

Texas Secretary of State Phil Wilson is predicting a record turnout based on the early voting figures.

“The number of voters participating in the Texas primaries is greater than anything we have seen before,” Wilson said in a recent press release. “If the voting trends continue through Election Day, Texas will set a record for turnout in a primary election with 3.3 million Texans casting a ballot.”

That is, says the secretary of state's office (would that be "SOS" in the new "abbreviaspeak?") that is 26% of registered voters in Texas [Opinion - still a sorry percentage for a nation founded on and supposedly exporting democracy, in my humble opinion.].

How big is it? Well, again according to the secretary of state, close to 900,000 voters cast ballots for Democrats in early voting in Texas' ten largest counties. The office says that is 11.39% of the registered voters in those counties. More than 300,000 cast votes in the Republican primaries in the same counties, for a total of 3.88% of the registered voters. That's 1.2 million ballots cast before polls opened.

That's not a shabby turnout for Republicans in a race that is all but decided. Whether Gov. Mike Huckabee can pull out a big win in Texas over Sen. John McCain is in doubt. Huckabee is counting on an evangelical and conservative landslide. McCain has all the big endorsements, including the controversial, millionaire preacher John Hagee (who brought Huckabee, an ordained minister, to preach at Hagee's church and then endorsed McCain).

Expect delays. There will be long lines, most polling places are short staffed and new voting procedures are being introduced. In Texas, each county picks its own balloting system

Texas' precinct conventions, which chose about one third of the promised delegates, only open after the polls close. It easily could be an hour or so after polls are scheduled to shut down before everyone is through voting. If you are in line when the polls close, you get to vote, no matter how long the line is.

Hunker down and get comfy.

It looks like a long night.

[Opinion: Having said that, watch it be an early blowout!]

* I recently opined that Sen. Clinton might not be out yet



Originally published at What's driving you crazy? blog

recommend This comment thread is now closed
Rachel Nixon
Rachel Nixon
flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 11:08 on March 4th, 2008

dunkelberg, thanks for this. Keep us posted on the Texas turnout. Could well be an exciting day and night!

0
dunkelberg

Thanks!  There is a buzz in the air, and I have not hit the rum.

ryan
ryan
flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 12:12 on March 4th, 2008

dunkelberg, thanks for this report - happy voting!

0
dunkelberg

Did two-thirds of my voting early.  Still have the bloody precinct convention to go to tonight.

BigT
BigT
flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 12:49 on March 4th, 2008

Have a fun day in the Lone Star state dunkelberg!

0
dunkelberg

Roger that, Big T!

Thanks 

0
dunkelberg

Over at the liberal "Burnt Orange*" blog, there's some interesting comments on what people are finding at the polls.

 


*bloody ut longhorns

Amy Judd
Amy Judd
flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 15:16 on March 4th, 2008

dunkelberg, I like this story. I look at Hillary Clinton as the New York Giants of politics. You never know, she might come back to sweep the superbowl out from under Obama's feet.

0
dunkelberg

We're beyond feet.

Right now, both sides are doing all they can to cut the off at the knees.

;-) 

PEP
PEP
flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 16:11 on March 4th, 2008

dunkelberg, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Thank you for this on-the-scene report that's not only original content, but is also darned good writing. Keep it coming!  

0
PEP

Are there any poll projections yet from local news there?

0
PEP

I just saw your great piece on the TX precincts.

You ever-so-modestly dropped in a small link! Will you be reporting on that process for us? If so, in a new story or an update?

 For that, I'll tune back in!

Swan
Swan
flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 12:09 on March 5th, 2008

Hello Dunkelberg!

Excellent unbiased coverage of the voting and very well written.
      ~ Swan

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