Canada's next government; majority, minority or coalition?

If the polls are accurate, Stephen Harper could be leading another minority government next week.  Poll results out today by show that Harper and the Conservatives and the Liberals are neck-and-neck with the NDP a strong contender for third place.

What could this mean for the next sitting of the House of Commons in Canada?  It means that the face of Canadian politics could experience some serious rearranging.  Stephen Harper had been hoping to form a majority government, in which case not much would change.  But things get interesting if the Conservatives win the minority experts now expect they will. Here’s how it works in Canadian politics.

A Majority Government

A majority government happens when 51% of the seats in the House of Commons are held by one party.  A majority government has absolute power to do whatever it wants, whenever it wants, with little delay.  Some people feel this is a good thing, since it allows for more efficient government activity, but others think it makes for nothing more than an elected dictatorship.

In a majority government situation, the leader of the party that holds the most seats in the House of Commons is named Prime Minister.  This leader is never elected by the people of Canada.  Party leadership is something that is decided by voting members of each political faction long before an election is ever held.  In that sense, Canadians never get to choose their leader.

How Canadians Vote

Canadians do, however, choose their leadership by voting for the candidate who represents the party they support in their riding.  Canada acts like constitutional monarchy, even though the Queen of England gave up her role as the country’s figurehead in 1982, the structure of Canada’s political system didn’t really change.  Canada is officially a parliamentary system based on the constitutional monarchy model.

Canadians vote for a party representative in their riding.  The party with the most elected representatives forms the government, and the party that comes in second makes up the official opposition.  This seems simple enough, but when a government wins a minority in the House of Commons, it can get complicated.

A Strong Minority Government

A minority government needs to form loose alliances with opposition parties in order to effectively govern.  Most often it forms alliances with the official opposition, but since Canada has 5 active parties, a minority government has other options should the official opposition refuse to partner up or play nice.  But a minority government can lead to another kind of partnership; one that effectively eliminates any power the minority government holds.

If a minority government wins by a close margin the dilution effect the 4 other parties have on the seats in the House of Commons usually allows it to govern as it pleases.  In theory, unless the other opposition parties can all agree, a minority government that still holds more seats than any other party could make most of its policies into law.  The opposition parties have to join forces to beat a minority government with a strong minority holding (usually defined as 40-50%).

A Weak Minority Government

If the minority government has a weak holding that quickly changes.  If a minority government holds power with less than 1/3 of all the seats in the House of Commons, it is considered a weak minority.  When the government is in a weak minority position, opposition parties can form loose coalitions to defeat government proposals, or an official coalition to take over the leadership of the country.

A loose alliance coalition is nothing more than an agreement in principle between two or more opposition parties to vote as one.  This type of coalition can be formed in reaction to one specific bill or vote, called an ad-hoc coalition, or it can be a general non-binding agreement.  When this loose coalitions form it can stall a government, in which case an election must be called.  This is what is said to have happened just prior to the 2008 early election call.

A Coalition Government

If two or more opposition parties form an official coalition they end up usurping power from the minority government and forming the leadership of the country as a united front called a coalition government.  This doesn’t require the elected officials from the various parties to reform as one party, but the two or more parties that join together must choose one of the leaders to act as Prime Minister. 

If a party holds a weak minority it risks being displaced by a coalition government.  If the poll results mentioned earlier are accurate, this is exactly what could happen next.  The Liberals and the NDP combined would hold more seats than the Conservatives; if they formed a coalition they would make up their own, stronger, minority government.  With the NDP and Liberals closer than ever in policy and party platforms, this is something that could actually happen this time around.  Canadians will just have to wait and see.