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The case against a US attack on Iran
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by YankeeJim | June 26, 2010 at 04:22 am
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NowPublic’s JoshArizona raised the specter of a more immanent attack on Iran by the US. This is a response to that report.
On the basis of this writer’s logical analysis, there are several premises for why the US will not attack Iran over the country’s developing a nuclear weapons capability.
The President
The President may appear to have an appetite for losing, but he really doesn’t. He likes to select battles that he thinks he can win normatively. That is, he picks a topic that he believes is important to people, pursues it ambitiously as far as he can get, and settles on a compromise with the aim of accomplishing something, even if it is not all that he wants.
As uncomfortable as that situation might be, 1) the USA can neutralize Iran in a heartbeat should the country pursue the black mail angle or should Iran attempt an attack on Israel, 2) an attack on Israel would accomplish nothing for Iran and would likely imperil other Arab allies and even Palestinians as the target is too small for nuclear deployment, and 3) Iranian people are not suicidal.
The President does not want to attack Iran and go down in history betraying the image that he has with allies and the world as a peacemaker.
Military Defense
The Military Defense establishment includes the executive branch appointees, military professionals, and the defense industry. Hawks abound throughout the community and they will lobby for attack.
However, the Joint Flag Officers know that it is time to retool, rest, and recuperate. They want to absorb and learn from the Iraq-Afghanistan experiences. There is no groundswell among them for a war with Iran.
There is likely a desire to deploy a strong military defense shield around Iran that can be activated with the push of a button to vaporize the place.
Oil Economics
For the world, it is all about oil. All developing and developed nations that are dependent upon fossil fuel need to keep the oil flowing. If Iran gets in the way of that, all will make them pay: China, Russia, the rest.
So, I would say, chill out on any prospect of immanent attack, because it simply isn’t likely to happen.
“Iran Again Criticizes U.S. Policy On Its Missiles
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Published: 19 Jun 2010 10:47TEHRAN, Iran - Iran on June 19 accused the United States of "deception" and insisted its missiles are for self-defense only, after a top U.S. official charged that Iran could rain missiles down on Europe.
"The Islamic Republic's missile capability has been designed and implemented to defend against any military aggression and it does not threaten any nation," Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi said in a statement carried by state media.
He was reacting to remarks by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on June 17 that U.S. intelligence has shown that Iran could attack Europe with "scores or hundreds" of missiles, prompting major changes to U.S. missile defenses.
Washington seeks to "expand its domination over Europe, and to find an excuse not to dismantle its nuclear weapons stationed in the region, while putting the pressure on Russia and surrounding it," Vahidi said.
"The U.S. seeks to create regional discord and impair [Moscow's] regional ties to humiliate Russia and weaken its relations with neighboring countries," he added, urging Russia not to fall for "U.S. deception and psychological war."
President Obama in September cited a mounting danger from Iran's arsenal of short- and medium-range missiles when he announced an overhaul of American missile defense plans.
The new program uses sea- and land-based interceptors to protect NATO allies in the region, instead of mainly larger weapons designed to counter long-range missiles.
Gates said the United States believed "that if Iran were actually to launch a missile attack on Europe ... it would more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles."
Iran is under mounting international pressure over its controversial nuclear program of uranium enrichment, which the West fears masks a covert weapons drive.
Iran vehemently denies the charge, but it has been flexing its military muscle mainly in the strategic Gulf region by staging regular war games and showcasing an array of Iranian-manufactured missiles.
The United States and Israel have not ruled out a military strike to curb Iran's atomic drive. Iran has vowed to deliver a crushing response if it comes under attack.
Iran has developed more than a dozen short- and medium-range (up to 1,240 miles) missiles and continues to expand its ballistic missile capability, even launching satellite carriers into space despite U.N. sanctions.”
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YankeeJim
Arlington, Virginia, United States
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at 12:27 on June 26th, 2010
Check out the second photo with this story.