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China rebound hinges on role of exports
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by Babel-Fish | April 15, 2009 at 06:52 pm
120 views | 28 Recommendations | 11 comments
The issue is a crucial one. China’s economy is expected to rebound later this year, boosted by aggressive government policies. But whether China can go back to its long-term trend of 8-9 per cent annual growth or whether it is facing a period of relatively sluggish expansion will depend to a large extent on just how important exports really are.
One school of thought has it that the bulk of growth in recent years has been driven by domestic demand rather than exports.
This seeded article backups up much of my analysis concerning China's quick diversification from the world market to its own domesticated market place. For a while now China has involved it self in creating micro businesses and now is spreading options for the poorest members of it society to create new businesses within the borders of China.
Having a strong minded Government and the power to steer China's new breed of capitalist in the directions that have been perceived by the China Families adviser as already paved the way for China to continue its expanse of its infrastructure. Recovery can be seen and China will be the first to rebound with success from the Global meltdown. China will still need a substantial part of the world market place to keep up its pace of expansion, but at a guess a 40% cut would not cause too much of a problem.
Will the present controls imposed on the world capitalist via the financial sectors be sufficient power to keep the world in step with China? Or has China won just an important economical war as the one won to bring down the Berlin wall and the Iron curtain?
China has scared America because of its present economical power
The Obama administration on Wednesday rowed back from claims that China is manipulating its currency, declining to cite Beijing in a closely watched report to Congress.
The move avoids a confrontation with Beijing at a moment when world leaders are trying to present a united front against the economic crisis. It implicitly recognizes China’s efforts to help stabilize the world economy by avoiding competitive devaluation and boosting domestic demand.
The point is China and America are super powers and China has taken over the and won economical war. USA is now struggling not much unlike Russia did when it realized it was losing the Cold war.
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Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (11)
at 19:15 on April 15th, 2009
Good Post Babel-Fish, However the US struggle cannot be compared with Russia.
Russia's people where used to little and willing to role up their sleeves and obey the central Government, Russia did not let Capitalism take over either, rather they used it and put in jail those that got out of hand so to speak.
China has growth from with in as you point out and the people are used to little and willing to follow the directive, Capitalism there is used as well as a tool yet China does not let Capitalism take over as the US did.
China like France and Germany is still for the major part micro capitalism embedded in Socialism.
The difference and success though of China and Russia is the attitude of the people, More obedient and little complaining, where as the French and German complain to much and are less obedient then the Chinese.
Japan is right in the middle of the German and Chinese way and its people are still very obedient and will recover and reinvent them self. As China Japan can still have much growth from with in, however unlike China, Japan's overall average age in the population is much higher wish will play a major factor.
at 20:23 on April 15th, 2009
"However the US struggle cannot be compared with Russia" No of course its the same ball game but a different way of pitching the ball.
The point was to point to the fact that as communism can be pulled down by economical struggle so can capitalism. It's pointing to the fact that there needs to be a balance in the world. social democracy would seem to be the way forward. Social need balanced against the capitalistic needs of the elite.
The regime of China is too ridged and there is a need of more ridged-ness to control the capitalist elite to cut out corruption and pure greed. Of course religious based problems need to be solved to have a perfect world order with peace on the agenda. Maybe one day the biggest problem could be sorted if the world became more socially aware. That of poverty, but will that ever be a possibility?.
at 20:55 on April 15th, 2009
I can agree with that we need more social democracy and controls over the Capitalist system.
Balance is needed and has to be maintained in a world that will never be able to be perfect for all, however it can be for most.
I believe that we can achieve justice, equality and Social democracy for all Human around the globe and that should be our goal.
However, Will ever achieve it is still up in the open, yet we have to strive towards it.
It is the only way to peace.
at 21:53 on April 15th, 2009
That's the way I see it as well, lets hope this is a train of thought many people want to travel on.
at 22:06 on April 15th, 2009
America's economic problems were produced by Wall Street moving production out of the US to reduce costs and regulations.
What is needed is a return of economic nationalism, the policy of husbanding the nation's wealth, and not allowing it to be used to make trans-national corporatons enormous profit at the expense of our people.
China has enormous social problems, worse than ours for right now. Their central government is weak and if the economy doesn't grow at 9%, there will be millions of unemployed college graduates to keep happy.
They won't be. Another Tiananmen Square is in the offing.
at 04:25 on April 16th, 2009
Roy I don't know where your getting your information from and I can assure you the days of Tiananmen Square are well over and China has moved into another mode.
The central government is strong and the move to micro business and home consumer market is very noticeable. However if you want to freeze in such an outdated opinion your opinion is respected but watch China this coming year over ride export problems. This will be done because the government is clearly in charge.
at 23:43 on April 15th, 2009
Dragon is sleeping for a while , it will come out of slumber soon.
at 04:29 on April 16th, 2009
Its actually not a sleep its already diversifying to its home consumer market, car sales in China have increased plus electrical goods. Maybe just a moment or two it closed its eyes. lol
at 04:45 on April 16th, 2009
Foremost...China is not about making wealth. Never has and never will. They know where the wealth wagon goes...off the cliff......as we have witnessed. China is about families, and society developing guangxi, and relationships. Whatever happens because of those nice interactions attributes to values of life and living most people fail to recognize or behold. China is not about materialism, but more about it's inner soul and makeup toward each other. Paschen uses the word obedience, which I do not call obedience but achievement, and recognizing the worth to all members in society as the interaction of harmony moves forward. More Chinese agree and work to make things work, than in the west...where it is nothing but an argument the moment you get up each and every morning. The difference is there is too much anger in the West...and in the East.....they do not live for that. One of the big issues is guns. In the US there is murder everyday..from a gun...in China with over a billion more people...it is not the case.
Really China will never have another Tiananamen Square uprising...because so many Chinese have seen how the Capitalist system failed....so what fight is there? None. They know they have found themselves and they will go about doing things as they have been for the past 7,000 years. No hurry here folks....China need not prove anything to anyone. It is all up to how well the harmony harmonizes.
Rev. Jermano
God Bless
at 08:03 on April 16th, 2009
I totally agree. Thanks for explaining much better than I could, its actually easy for you as you live in China, Where as I just visit and normally have little time for my research.
at 21:32 on April 18th, 2009
The facts are out now and China has offically confirmed its concentrating on its home consumer market more than on its export market to continue its growth.
Its nice to be in a position to say I told you so, but it ways in fact a very easy thing to predict. The present recession is a small hiccup and in anycase. China has been looking at its home market place for more than two years or so, as it had to anyway as manufacturing expansion would need a wider consumer market to pay for the improvement of its infrastructure expansion and to improve the lives of its well less off citizens to eradicate poverty.
China will also be looking at ways of improving its consumer base in Asia by helping its neighbors it will secure its economical plan. This will of course be good news for nations such as the Philippines hopefully China's success will help eradicate poverty in most of Asia within a decade or so.