China’s Recovery:

by PIM of SPAIN | May 10, 2009 at 11:05 am
88 views | 10 Recommendations | 2 comments

Photos

China's Recovery: | Photo 02

China's Recovery: | Photo 02

see larger image

uploaded by PIM of SPAIN

Vital to the belief of a global recovery is the view that China, at least, is still growing, so that they can help pull the rest of the world out of this crisis.
On average, world trade fell 31 percent in January 2009. To different degrees, recession and depression turned out to be global.

The Financial Times reports:
"Perhaps more than any major economy, China is showing signs of improvement. Indicators suggest that the economy began to recover in March with industrial production rising 8.3 percent from 2.8 percent in January-February”. "But could it all be a bit of false hope? Could we, in fact, be misinterpreting a temporary stimulus-induced economic pick-me-up as an actual sustainable recovery?"

China says it is growing. But if it were really growing it would be using more fuel and more electricity. Instead, industrial demand for fuel, used by factories and commercial plants, fell 12.6% in the first quarter. While commodity imports also points out that electricity generation has been going down as well. Over the course of the last seven months power output has been 8.5% below that of a year earlier.

Elsewhere is reported:
"Over 15,000 factories in the Chinese provinces of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, or Dongguan have already shut down... with many more slated to close over the months ahead”.

China obviously is lying. It seems very unlikely that China could have recovered so quickly. This is not a recession it's a depression. And a depression requires structural changes and that takes time. See my article: This economic crisis ends in depression:

Office complexes too are empty. “At Gemdale, an Office tower, with 50 floors of office space and completed last summer all floors are empty”. "It's an epidemic that's happening all across Asia.” Is reported and continues with: “Half of China's toy factories have shut down.” In fact, at least 67,000 factories overall closed in the last six months of 2008. While another 60,000 factories in the Wen Zhou Province are already or about to shut down.
"As many as 27 million Chinese are out of work - with 20 million of them streaming out of the cities and back to the abandoned farms of the Chinese countryside." It was thought that China would be able to decouple itself from the developed world. “However they were caught”, say analysts.

China went into recession simply like everyone else. It looked whether those clever Chinese seem to have found the anti-crisis solution. Almost unbelievable, China seems to have pulled off the much-desired "V-shaped recovery." Instead, of contracting, China's figures show it is expanding at a more than 8% rate.

But at “Shanghai’s Mandarin Hotel occupancy was at 40 percent in early February, against 80% a year ago. And at the even bigger Marriott Hotel, it's still worse; just 25%."

Moreover there realistically is doubt that this ‘rebound’ is the sign of a new, healthy boom. Credit expanded for half a century. The Bubble Era at its end caused trillions of dollars worth of mistakes. Many of those errors may have been addressed? However the economy that built this bubble remains unchanged. Even now the same mismanaged companies, same mismanaged regulators, and same mismanaged banks are nonetheless in charge.

Exporting emerging countries were earning in net sales from  ‘The Rich World’ about $3 billion per day. Those earnings provided much of the speculative bubble capital that on its turn created the Bubble Economy. That quantity of superfluous money has not yet disappeared. And it is very much unlikely that China will return to pre-bubble-era conditions anytime soon.

In conformity with the found facts that tell a different story, it is justified to conclude that the genuine situation in China’s economy is very much different, as China wants us to having believed.

recommend This comment thread is now closed
0
Paschen

Interesting Opinion Pim.

1
PIM of SPAIN

Thanks for yr compliment Uwe. Most politicians - Leaders - are feeling that they have to announce economic improvements that are coming, but actually aren't there, not now and not in at least the foreseeable future. Just to keep their people happy. Zapatero Spain's Prime Minister yesterday on a really for the EU elections announced several times that he saw the recovery arriving. Spain is in the worst position in the EU with >17% unemployment over 4 million people on the dole, and no money to pay for.

This story was created over 3 months ago, the comment thread is now closed.

What is NowPublic?

NowPublic lets people work together to cover news events around the world.

Find out more

Crowd Power

Paschen
First Flagged at 4:54 PM, May 10, 2009 by Paschen
These members have powered this story:

Related Stories

Recommendations (10)

Most recently recommended by:
 

closeSign in to NowPublic

is reporting from