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The CIA Double Cross: How Bad a Blow in Afghanistan?
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by snuffysmith | January 7, 2010 at 05:52 pm
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While President Obama and the news media have focused on a review of what happened and what went wrong in the Detroit bomber case, very little attention has focused on the CIA Assassination that took place in Afghanistan last week, where US citizens and intelligence employees were murdered. Today the US public was regaled with another Presidential press conference, a mea culpa with "the buck stops here," and proposals for implementation on how to improve security in aviation.
Where is the consideration and concern for an Al Qaeda penetration of US intelligence and military capabilites?
A strong case can be made that US national security interests have been more endangered by the events that transpired in AFghanistan than the attempted bombing of Flight 253. Highlights from the following Time piece is the first demonstration of concern within the media to highlight the seriousness of last week's assassination, and the first to ask the fundamental question: How Bad a Blow in Afghanistan?
There is no doubt in my mind that Al Qaeda is celebrating its coup and penetration of the US military and intelligence occupatation
The reaction to the two terrorist attacks during the last week in December is puzzling. One of the attacks, against a CIA outpost in Afghanistan, succeeded; the other, on an airplane landing in Detroit, failed. The Undiebomber was an amateur who was thwarted, rather neatly, by his fellow passengers on the plane. The Afghanistan operation was quite the opposite — highly sophisticated and devastating, with vast implications for both the war in Afghanistan and future clandestine CIA operations. And yet the Undiebomber has provoked an avalanche of attention in our twittery media — and from Republicans like Dick Cheney who yearn for the return of "enhanced" interrogation techniques. The Afghanistan attack hasn't caused nearly the public fuss, but make no mistake: it has to be a matter of much greater concern to the White House than the Detroit fiasco.
The Afghanistan bombing was not the deadliest in CIA history. That sad honor goes to the 1983 truck bomb that ripped off the face of the U.S. embassy in Lebanon, killing eight members of the Beirut station, among many others. But this suicide bomber, a Jordanian doctor named Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, was the CIA's worst ever security breach. In an era when grandmothers are routinely screened at airports, al-Balawi was whisked into Forward Operating Base Chapman, the CIA headquarters for the drone war against al-Qaeda, without so much as a pat-down. He was then ushered into a meeting with 13 CIA operatives and his Jordanian handler.
Both of these facts are crucial. The CIA clearly considered this guy a hot ticket, the path — finally — to the al-Qaeda leadership. The idea that so many CIA personnel would attend the meeting, and that it would be held on base, is attributable not only to al-Balawi's perceived importance but also to the CIA's bureaucratic caution: in the past, such a meeting would be held off base, with fewer handlers. But everyone wanted to evaluate this guy in the flesh. The fact that al-Balawi wasn't given even a rudimentary security screening speaks to the credibility he had built up over time, feeding valuable information to Jordan's General Intelligence Department, a trusted CIA partner. "This was an extremely sophisticated, well-thought-out operation," a former senior intelligence official told me. "It took years to set up. And quite frankly, we didn't think al-Qaeda had that capability." (Several intelligence sources told me they thought the operation was run out of the al-Qaeda high command — Osama bin Laden's headquarters — which would make it a departure from the recent trend of decentralized al-Qaeda operations, like Undiebomber's, which was run out of Yemen.)
"This is a real kick in the teeth," says Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution, a former CIA analyst. "You have to understand that the CIA considers Afghanistan its most successful arena. This is where the CIA believes it has won two wars, in 1989 and 2001. So this has to challenge a lot of assumptions." As a result, there will be two immediate and contradictory reactions to the attack. The more overt will be a flash of spook machismo. A published comment from a CIA official included this threat: "Last week's attack will be avenged. Some very bad people will eventually have a very bad day."
But there was also a quieter and potentially more profound reaction: Given the skill of this operation, how trustworthy are the other sources the CIA has been using to help target its drone attacks against al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan? The standard claim has been that the CIA's human intelligence against al-Qaeda — and other threats — has improved dramatically in recent years. "In a very perverse way, this attack may be the best testimony of all that human intelligence has improved," said the former official. But spies are, by nature, paranoid, and there will be suspicion now that any new and even some trusted sources are "dangles" — that is, double agents working for al-Qaeda. This could cripple future operations. "People tend to get very cautious in a hurry when this sort of thing happens," says Bob Baer, a former covert operator. "Remember, [James] Angleton tore the place apart looking for Soviet moles."
What happened in Afghanistan should not have happened. As I have written elsewhere, there was gross negligence involved here. That alone, until corrected will cripple future operations. That alone will impact the CIA's ability to hire people to work in Afghanistan as well as ensure their security in the workplace. This couldn't come at a worse time when the US is undertaking a surge in troops into Afghanistan.
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Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (18)
at 17:57 on January 7th, 2010
More News On The CIA Failings In Afghanistan
Al-Qaida Claims CIA Attack Was Revenge -- Voice of America
CIA attack was 'in revenge for al-Qaeda deaths' -- Times Online
CIA suicide bombing 'was revenge for drone attacks' -- The Telegraph
Al Qaeda Claims Responsibility for CIA Base Bombing -- ABC News
Suicide attack on CIA agents 'was planned by bin Laden inner circle' -- Times Online
CIA suicide bomber 'worked with bin Laden allies' -- The Telegraph
Report: Al-Qaida CIA bomber was furious over Gaza war -- Haaretz
Bomber's wife says husband did not work for CIA -- Reuters
CIA Bomber Was No Double Agent, Say Jordanians -- Time Magazine
Jordanian Bomber’s Path Remains a Mystery to His Family -- New York Times
2 Blackwater Guards Were Among Dead at Afghan CIA Base -- FOX News
Blackwater staff among those killed in CIA base bombing -- The Australian
Mystery Surrounds Contractors' Role at CIA Base -- ABC News
Suicide Bombing Puts a Rare Face on C.I.A.’s Work -- New York Times
Afghanistan bombing shows perils of CIA counterspying -- Washington Times
In Afghanistan, not-so-smart intelligence -- L.A. Times editorial
at 18:34 on January 7th, 2010
So, Mr President, what are you going to do to fix this deadly intelligence screw-up?
Obama: 'The buck stops with me'President Barack Obama suggested Thursday he would not fire anyone for the attempted Christmas airline attack, saying it appears the security lapses that led to the near-disaster were not the fault of a single individual or institution. "Ultimately the buck stops with me," said the commander in chief. He declared anew that the government had the information to prevent the botched attack but failed to piece it together. He announced a range of changes designed to fix that, including wider and quicker distribution of intelligence reports, stronger analysis of them and new terror watch list rules. ...
at 20:46 on January 7th, 2010
CIA Killings Spell Defeat in Afghanistan
by Douglas Valentine
at 20:48 on January 7th, 2010
Counterterrorism In Shambles; Why?
by Ray McGovern and Coleen Rowley
at 20:57 on January 7th, 2010
Source: nytimes.com
at 07:37 on January 8th, 2010
Source: news.antiwar.com
at 09:59 on January 8th, 2010
Source: alternet.org
at 14:25 on January 8th, 2010
The Meaning of al Qaeda's Double Agent: The jihadists are showing impressive counterintelligence ability that the CIA seems to have underestimated - Reuel Marc Gerecht, Wall Street Journal: Obama may at some level still believe that his let's-just-all-be-friends speech in Cairo last June made a big dent in the hatred that many faithful Muslims have for the U.S., but his practices on the ground are likely to be a lot less touchy-feely. This is all for the good. These three jihadist incidents ought to tell us that America's war with Islamic militancy is far—far—from being over.
at 20:01 on January 9th, 2010
More News On Al Qaeda's Successful Attack Against The CIA In Afghanistan
TV Shows CIA Bomber With Pakistan Taliban -- Wall Street journal
'CIA bomber' video indicates Taliban's reach -- BBC
Video Shows CIA Bomber Calling for Attacks on U.S. -- L.A. Times/AP
Al-Qaeda says CIA attack 'revenge' for drone killings -- AFP
The CIA is Proud to be on the Front Lines Against al-Qaeda - Leon Panetta, Washington Post
CIA Chief Defends Agency after Afghan Attack -- Voice of America
CIA director: suicide bomber was almost searched -- Washington Post
CIA director defends agency against criticism -- AFP
CIA attack 'revenge for Mehsud' -- Al Aljazeera
Eager young recruit, a father to be and man in charge among CIA dead -- Times Online
at 20:01 on January 9th, 2010
Commentaries And Analysis
The CIA Double Cross: How Bad a Blow in Afghanistan? -- Time Magazine
The Bomber’s Wife -- Newsweek
Anatomy of a Double-Cross -- Newsweek
Could the CIA have achieved what al-Qaeda did? -- The Telegraph
The Meaning of al Qaeda's Double Agent -- Reuel Marc Gerecht, Wall Street Journal
at 20:04 on January 9th, 2010
CIA Bomber Struck Moments Before Pat-Down Search -- Washington Post
The Jordanian doctor arrived in a red station wagon that came directly from Pakistan and sped through checkpoints at a CIA base in Afghanistan before stopping abruptly at an improvised interrogation center. Outside stood one of the CIA's top experts on al-Qaeda, ready to greet the doctor and hear him describe a way to kill Ayman al-Zawahiri, the organization's number two and a man long at the top of U.S. target lists.
Read more ....
at 07:12 on January 11th, 2010
Making Sense of the New CIA Battlefield in Afghanistan by Tom Engelhardt and Nick Turse
at 19:56 on January 11th, 2010
How the CIA Can Improve its Operations in Afghanistan - David Ignatius, Washington Post opinion. In terms of loss of life, the bombing of the CIA base in Khost, Afghanistan, may be the most costly mistake in the agency's history. So it's important to look carefully for clues about how it happened and lessons for the future. CIA veterans cite a series of warning signs that the agency wasn't paying enough attention to the counterintelligence threat posed by al-Qaeda. These danger signals weren't addressed because the agency underestimated its adversary and overestimated its own skills and those of its allies. The time to fix these problems is now - not with a spasm of second-guessing that will further weaken the CIA but through the agency's own adaptation to this war zone. As the Khost attack made painfully clear, the CIA needs better tradecraft for this conflict. By getting a suicide bomber inside a CIA base, the al-Qaeda network showed that it remains a sophisticated adversary, despite intense pressure from CIA Predator attacks. "They didn't get lucky, they got good and we got sloppy all over Afghanistan," says one agency counterterrorism veteran. This shouldn't have been a surprise: CIA sources say that over the past year, two al-Qaeda allies in Afghanistan - the Haqqani and Hekmatyar networks - have run double-agent operations.
at 20:26 on January 11th, 2010
Can Intelligence Be Intelligent?: PowerPoint Presentations Will Not Win The War In Afghanistan. -- Wall Street Journal Opinion
'Intelligence," Daniel Patrick Moynihan once observed, "is not to be confused with intelligence." To read two recent analyses of U.S. intelligence failures is to be reminded of the truth of that statement, albeit in very different ways.
Exhibit A is last week's unclassified White House memo on the attempted bombing of Flight 253 over the skies of Detroit. Though billed by National Security Adviser Jim Jones as a bombshell in its own right, the memo reads more like the bureaucratic equivalent of the old doctor joke about the operation succeeding and the patient dying. The counterterrorism system, it tells us, works extremely well and the people who staff it are top-notch. No doubt. It just happens that in this one case, this same terrific system failed comprehensively at the most elementary levels.
Read more ....
at 20:27 on January 11th, 2010
More News And Analysis On The Flynn Report
US general raps intel gathering in Afghanistan -- AFP
US intelligence accused of 'cluelessness' -- Financial Times
Afghanistan Intel Chief’s Critique = Pentagon Pique -- The Danger Room
Mil intel report sign of more defiance by the generals? -- Politico
Pentagon Intelligence Chief Urges Pakistan to Keep Up Pressure on Militants -- Voice of America
How a Plugged-In DC Think Tank Published a General’s Brutal Intel Critique -- The Danger Room
Spies Like Us: Top U.S. Intel Officer Says Spooks Could Learn From Journos -- The Danger Room
The Flynn report (IV): Cordesman's take -- Foreign Policy
American intelligence and fortune-telling -- Reuters opinion
Is Military Intelligence in Afghanistan Broken? -- Max Fisher, The Atlantic
A Bit More on the Flynn Report -- Michael Cohen, Democracy Arsenal
The Flynn report (III): A spy generation gap? -- Foreign Policy
at 14:38 on January 12th, 2010
Jordanians Question Alliance with U.S. After Humam al-Balawi’s CIA Suicide Bombing - James Hider. The father received the bearded mourners with dry eyes, his grief tempered by the conviction that his son, a martyr to the cause of al-Qaeda’s jihad, was already in Heaven. It is a common enough spectacle in the Islamist badlands of the Middle East or Central Asia - but yesterday’s funeral was not in Afghanistan, nor even Pakistan. The farewell to Mahmoud Zaydan, 35, a teacher of Arabic and the Koran who was killed at the weekend by a U.S. drone in Waziristan, Pakistan, took place in the peaceful Jordanian town of Irbid. Jordan has long been one of America’s closest allies in the region but only recently have Jordanians discovered how close to home the War on Terror is being waged. A suicide bombing last month at a CIA base in Afghanistan, perpetrated by a Jordanian double agent - and targeting, along with seven CIA officers, a fellow Jordanian - has put the country on the international terror map. It exposed Jordan’s close ties with U.S. intelligence; a realisation that shocked and angered many Muslims in the country, normally seen as an oasis of peace in the turbulent area. At yesterday’s funeral, the family of the dead al-Qaeda member had nothing but scorn for their Government’s alliance with America. “The United States is fighting Muslims everywhere,” the dead man’s father, Mahdi Zaydan, said. “They’ll fight to defend themselves and drive the Americans out, like the Soviets were driven out of Afghanistan.” Mr Zaydan said that his son had studied Sharia in Jordan before travelling to Pakistan in 1999 to teach Arabic and the Koran, and to pursue his studies. In the city of Peshawar, he fell in with members of the Taleban. His family does not know exactly how he came to join al-Qaeda but said that he had served the terrorist organisation as a preacher and spiritual adviser; a job often involving recruitment, indoctrination and finding scriptural justification for the blood shed in God’s name.
at 06:08 on January 18th, 2010
Stratfor: “The Khost Attack And The Intelligence War Challenge” -- Fabius Maximus
This Stratfor articles discusses a critical component of our occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan: intelligence. At the end are links to other posts about this subject.
As usual, Stratfor gives an authorative analysis on the several dimensions of this topic. But the authors “bury the lede”, putting their most disturbing conclusions deep in the article:
The United States cannot hope to reach any satisfactory solution in Afghanistan unless it can win the intelligence war. But the damage done to the CIA in this attack cannot be overestimated. At least one of the agency’s top analysts on al Qaeda was killed. In an intelligence war, this is the equivalent of sinking an aircraft carrier in a naval war. The United States can’t afford this kind of loss. There will now be endless reviews, shifts in personnel and re-evaluations. In the meantime, the Taliban in both Pakistan and Afghanistan will be attempting to exploit the opportunity presented by this disruption.
Read more
at 06:10 on January 18th, 2010
In Afghanistan Attack, CIA Fell Victim To Series Of Miscalculations About Informant -- Washington Post
AMMAN, JORDAN -- He was an ambitious young doctor from a large family who had a foreign wife and two children -- details that officers of Jordan's intelligence service viewed as exploitable vulnerabilities, not biography.
Early last year, the General Intelligence Department picked up Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi after his pseudonymous postings on extremist Web sites had become increasingly strident. During three days of questioning, GID officers threatened to have Balawi jailed and end his medical career, and they hinted they could cause problems for his family, according to a former U.S. official and a Jordanian official, both of whom have knowledge of Balawi's detention.
Read more
A sobering review of how the CIA and Jordanian intelligence failed in this case. But unlike other operations that have failed, these mistakes resulted in the deaths of a number of CIA personnel and the disruption of key CIA operations in Afghanistan/Pakistan.