Copenhagen: Climate Deal Highly Unlikely

by Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke | December 17, 2009 at 04:05 am

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Environmentalists call it the Number one issue plaguing the planet. Detractors call it drummed up. Whatever you believe, one thing has become obvious over these past two weeks, large events such as the UN Climate Change Conference have a fat chance of succeeding. Perhaps too many cooks spoil the broth.

The issue is so emotional to some, that negotiating in good faith, or not, is highly unlikely. Delegates are being haunted by organizations, such as Tick Tick Tick, by providing trackers. While Greenepeace ignores the worlds biggest polluters, while it focuses on the Alberta Oil Sands. These make an easy target and can provide visual evidence of everything that is wrong with the environment.

Then there is the division between developing and developed countries. The NGOs (Non Government Organizations) competing for funds. The lack of security at the talks. The dramatic pictures of police abuse of demonstrators hasn't helped either, but it made good news.

Individual Canadian Provinces received environmental achievement awards, while they called Alberta's record embarrassing. These are the same provinces that benefit from Oil Sands funds to finance their social programs. These same provinces continue to use oil and natural gas for transportation and to fuel their houses.

Alberta transfers some $25 Billion a year to the Federal government for distribution to other provinces. . Alberta's population is just over 3,000,000, or one tenths of Canada's population.

Europeans play the part of being so well behaved when it comes to climate change. Well let's see, they also continue to use our gas and oil. They are not producers, so complying, again comes easy.

China and India have both stated that they will not agree to binding targets. In fact China will not submit its industry to inspection. Is there any surprise regarding this? China's much hailed 40% reduction tied to GDP growth, actually increases emissions over time.

COPENHAGEN -- China has told participants in the U.N.-sponsored climate talks that it cannot envision reaching an immediate, operational accord out of the negotiations here, according to an official involved in the talks.

Chinese officials conveyed the message early Thursday, the official added. It remains unclear what China would be willing to embrace instead of a robust political agreement.

"We have a very serious situation in Copenhagen," said Swedish environment minister Andreas Carlgren, whose country holds the EU presidency. "The EU contributes to and supports all efforts to have the process moving forward."

Russia released an Climategate statement yesterday. The IEA (Institute of Economic Analysis) added to the fuel of this hacked e-mail claim by stating that the British Meteorological Office had probably tampered with Russian data. The IEA believes that the data collected does not support the global warming theory.

Climategate has already affected Russia. On Tuesday, the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change based at the headquarters of the British Meteorological Office in Exeter (Devon, England) had probably tampered with Russian-climate data.

The IEA believes that Russian meteorological-station data did not substantiate the anthropogenic global-warming theory. Analysts say Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country’s territory, and that the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports. Over 40% of Russian territory was not included in global-temperature calculations for some other reasons, rather than the lack of meteorological stations and observations.

Hillary Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State announced in Copenhagen, this morning, that Climate Change was real and that the U.S. would reduce its carbons by 17% below 2005 levels. CBC Newsnet questioned whether or not Obama would still go to Copenhagen without a deal. He was expected to leave tonight.

Is a Climate Deal still possible, or is the best we can expect this year and agreement to work toward binding targets for next year? Would that be considered a success?

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Hugh Askew

at 04:38 on December 17th, 2009

A success would be for the delegates and politicians at the conference to start practicing what they talk.

I'll start believing them when i see them all walking, or rowing a boat, home from the conference. The rest is all blah, blah, let the little people pay the price.

Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

at 04:42 on December 17th, 2009

Thanks Hugh for commenting. Yes walking the talk would be most appropriate for many of them.

YankeeJim

at 04:50 on December 17th, 2009

Timing is everything and now is not it. The USA will make progress by default.

Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

at 04:58 on December 17th, 2009

I think you're probably right. Governments are reluctant to make real commitments prior to a real noticeable recovery. Although Obama is said to be supporting the $100 Billion fund for developing countries. How will it affect the rift between the US and China at this point? Will the developing world show the willingness to tackle China's commitment?

Amy Judd

at 08:33 on December 17th, 2009

Is any country willing to take on China though? It's the same with the situation in the Sudan. Everyone says they want to stop the mass killings there but no one wants to offend China who buys the majority of Sudan's oil, therefore, no one does anything except talk about how bad the situation in the Sudan is.

Amy Judd

at 08:32 on December 17th, 2009

Unfortunately I don't think they will reach a decision this year.

Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

at 08:41 on December 17th, 2009

The whole situation has been build around the economy of the world. Until we stop our addiction to oil and come up with workable, efficient, alternate means this problem will continue. We have decided to conveniently fingerpoint at others, yet we are not making changes ourselves or push our politicians to do so.

Cap and Trade is a great idea until someone wants to take that tax off us, yet we don't care that more than 50% at the pump goes to the federal and provincial governments.

a211423

at 09:05 on December 17th, 2009

cowpoke

I agree that focusing the criticisms on your province while others who are beneficiaries of its economic profits recieve awards is wrong.

We talked a while ago about what this summit would mean in tangible results, and so far there have not been any surprises. Setting goals is one thing, but timelines that really tackle carbon emissions is another. U.S. is constrained because commitments are linked to the Congress passing environmental legislation.

One good thing about this summit is the vast participation by smaller island nations like the Maldives who face eminent destruction by sea levels rising and other countries who have contributed next to nothing in the crisis, yet they are the ones who will be paying the price first before other developed countries.

China is considered an undeveloped country, so their status is considered differently.

Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

at 11:24 on December 17th, 2009

How can you ignore 2 Billion people (China and India) while you walk all over Alberta's 3 million. I'm all for getting this under control, but those that point fingers should start sweeping their own front steps. Barbara, in a comment below, makes some very valid points.

Barbara McPherson

at 10:52 on December 17th, 2009

These climate conferences seem like a great opportunity for an all expense paid holiday - Rio, Bali, Copenhagan. How many delegates flew to the conferences, ate sparse meals and reused their fancy hotel's bathtowels? Canadians do use a lot of energy per person, but much of it is hydro-electric and very little from coal. The oil-sands are dirty but a tiny contribution compared to the world's use of coal. Keep in mind the population of Canada is about one tenth that of the U.S. and miniscule compared to China, India and Indonesia.

hennivandijk

at 22:24 on December 17th, 2009

Just want to add a small comment on what I read in the other ones... Everybody should do what he or she can. Regardless with how many we are, how big or small we are. Climate change started long ago and is racing... much faster than we thought. So lets stop talking, but start acting! Everybody. Lets not turn the climate into a commercial. Its too important. So lets stop talking small talk and point fingers.

Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

at 02:18 on December 18th, 2009

Henni I agree with you. It.s 1 minute to midnight on finger pointing. Every individual has to contribute. We can't go on blaming others and continue with our old habits.

Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

at 02:18 on December 18th, 2009

Henni I agree with you. It.s 1 minute to midnight on finger pointing. Every individual has to contribute. We can't go on blaming others and continue with our old habits.