Could Ron Paul upset the establishment and actually win in Iowa?

Texas Rep. Ron Paul & libertarian is renowned for his millions dollar Money Bomb’s, a fanatical support base and a reputation as the most consistent fiscal conservative over the years. Paul’s front runner status is starting to cause many within the Republican Party establishment to worry, that he may in fact win the Iowa caucus.   

Paul is a libertarian leaning politician with libertarianism being a political philosophy based on the minimisation of coercion, with government limited fairly strictly to the prevention of force and fraud. Both prostitution and insider trading would be legal in a libertarian society.

Many pundits and establishment figures were quick to dismiss Paul’s success in recent weeks however, Paul received 21.7% of potential caucusgoers, according to an average of three recent polls compiled by the website Real Clear Politics. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney trails him slightly with 20.3% and former speaker Newt Gingrich comes in third with 15.7%. Despite this proven success, however, the mainstream media and GOP establishment continue to dismiss any chance of Paul capturing the nomination and the legitimacy of his campaign. 

Paul makes the Republican establishment nervous because his support base is his alone, and is not getting any assistance from the party. Many accept that beyond his core support, there is little evidence that other Republicans want Paul.

It is believed Republicans are now preparing a newsletter campaign and will resort to other options in an attempt to discredit the congressman at every opportunity. While the congressman from Texas has some of the same goals as his fellow Republican frontrunner, including the abolishment of several governmental programs, it looks as though the candidate’s libertarian leanings has enough of the establishment scared that his presidential promises could become a reality.

Foreign policy is one area where Paul is finding troubled waters with his fellow Republicans, such as Rep. Michele Bachmann, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

All three criticised Paul's comments during the Fox News debate last week in which he said he feared the United States would overreact to "war propaganda" about Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon and risk getting into another "useless war."

"There is no evidence that (Iran)" has a nuclear weapon, he said. "And it would make more sense,  if we lived through the Cold War, which we did, with 30,000 missiles pointed at us, we ought to really sit back and think and not jump the gun and believe that we are going to be attacked." That's unacceptable, Perry said: "We cannot have a president of the United States that basically is so hands-off to a country like Iran that they say, 'It's not our business, we're not going to get involved.' It is our business." Bachmann said Paul "would have our nation ignore clear unmistakable warning signs of another brutal dictator who would want to wipe Israel and the rest of us off the face of the map."

This is Ron Paul’s third run for president having previously ran in 1988 as the Libertarian Party’s nominee and again in 2008 seeking the Republican nomination. The GOP face the very real possibility of Paul winning in Iowa. He’s got both the poll lead and the ground organisation with enthusiastic supporters that could to produce results on caucus night.  

If Paul win’s in Iowa it could have a major impact in the in New Hampshire primary as candidates doing well in Iowa traditionally receive a boost in support in the Granite State. The Ron Paul rise is working to Mitt Romney’s advantage and hurting Gingrich. The more conservative element of the Republican Party wanted an alternative to Romney however, with Romney and Paul possessing the organisation and finance to mount a negative campaign against Gingrich, a third place finish for the former speaker is now looking a good result in the first in the nation caucus come January 3. Don’t bet against Paul turning the GOP race into a long drawn out affair and turning many a pundits predictions on their heads.