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Defeating Clinton and locking up nomination fails to propel Obama forward

by Albert Milliron | June 18, 2008 at 11:10 am

481 views | 22 Recommendations | 8 comments

Defeating Hillary Clinton and locking up the Democratic Party nomination fails to propel Obama forward

By Albert N. Milliron , Politisite.com

Usually when a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee a phenomenon called the, "Bounce" occurs in the next 2 polling cycles. Obama is atypical in this regard. He does hold a 4 Point lead above McCain but he retained this lead while Clinton was still running.

What does it all mean? In Political polling, back to the seventies, the nominee received 7-10 point jump following his nominee status. Another observation, woman may not have made the move to Obama and have remained with McCain. I expect woman to begin looking more at Obama following the August Convention in Denver

Zogby

Defeating Hillary Clinton and locking up the Democratic Party nomination fails to propel Obama forward

UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama holds an edge over Republican John McCain in the race for U.S. President, but his recent win of his party’s nomination has not produced a big bounce, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.

Real Clear Politics

Zogby's new survey (June 12-14, 1,113 LV, MoE +/-3.0%) shows Obama leading McCain by 5 but the pollster writes that Obama's "recent win of his party's nomination has not produced a big bounce." In fact, he lost a bit of ground against McCain:

Obama 47 (-1 vs. last survey May 15-18)
McCain 42 (+2)
Undecided 12

Overall, Obama leads McCain in the RCP National Average by 4.1%.

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Amy Judd

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 14:29 on June 18th, 2008

politisite, I like this story. It's good stuff.

julianw

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 18:03 on June 18th, 2008

Good post. I suspect Obama's bounce will be stretched out over a few months as Clinton supporters resign themselves to Hillary's defeat. Hendrik Hertzberg has some interesting thoughts about Obama's relationship to Hillary's female supporters.

Albert Milliron

at 18:29 on June 18th, 2008

I think You have it right

Rhonda J Mangus

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 18:06 on June 18th, 2008

politisite, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Albert Milliron

at 18:26 on June 18th, 2008

I do expect for Obama to spike after the convention in August. There are alot of woman wondering if they might have better representation with McCain as he is moderate, works with both parties, and is a candidate that talks the same speak no matter where he is running. Although, I have been a bit disillusioned about his change on Bush Tax cuts. I think He should stick to his core beliefs no matter what his handlers tell him. I liked the idea that he fired all of his people that had any connection to special interests. I know Obama called that a bad thing... but in all reality Obama has a bunch of Clintions special interest team working for him now.

julianw

at 18:36 on June 18th, 2008

I'm surprised that McCain's history of opposing abortion rights (he takes the opposite position on abortion from Clinton and Obama) isn't doing more to alienate female voters. This story outlines the political implications of the abortion debate.

Albert Milliron

at 00:37 on June 19th, 2008

The Abortion debate has always been a polarizing issue between conservatives and Democrats. McCain does agree with federal funding for Stem Cell Research. He has said that he isn't going to go after Roe v. Wade but during his times in office could set up a conservative court with possibly 2 appointments. Conservatives believe the United States Declaration of Independence protects a fetus the same way a demented elderly or Totally disabled person. "Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness "These three aspects are listed among the "inalienable rights".