Doom and gloom economy versus it’s really a boom economy!
Look I am not an economist but just someone that observes the market place and knows a bit about charts and things.. Many years ago when I wore my accountant’s hat I wrote a software program to keep control of a large portfolio and try to predict bank interest rates. Within a three year period I had only been half of a percent out. It was calculated on history of gold prices, interest rates and periods of recessions etc., spanning back over 20 years.
I now do not have to look at business news or any of the media reports to know that there has been hype doom and gloom concerning the world economy all I need to do is check the exchange rates of the British pound against the Filipino Peso which I do regularly each day. When the hype is at a high level the rate goes down and when the hype recedes the rate goes up.
Looking at the stock markets which always peak and trough since the recession there has been a slow but sure slope upwards. That normally suggests that there is a slow recovery, these peaks and troughs also relate to media hype on doom and gloom or of course boom.
Some times a opposing party politician has a dig at the present administration not just in USA but in Europe as well about the economy the more strength in the attack the more effects currencies and of course the stock exchanges.
When an unfavorable early quarter or month report is hyped by the media it also effect’s currencies and stocks and shares. Once again till the hype recedes within this present recession the stock market’s peaks still peak slightly higher and currencies recover once again.
Am I the only one that notices the trend, well in fact I know I am not as I have seen others report that the recession is on a slow recovery. Am I the only one that can predict that if the recovery keeps recovering at the rate it is the recession looks like it will end mid next year. But of course once it does recover economies will not improve a great deal just level out. In my opinion they will remain that way until the next recession four or five years at max. That’s because I really do not think the fix will be followed by a sensible need for the richer economies in the west bringing the manufactory base home.
But countries can not live on mainly making money out of services they need to have a manufacturing base not just to keep the money at home but to cut the employment queues so consumer spending constantly improves.
One main thing is for sure there is a need to attract investment by making investors confident in the market place and to attract the consumers to spend in the confidence they will stay employed.
As I say I am not an economist, I certainly have no idea if my opinion shows the path to a solution to improve economies but to me it looks to be logically sound opinion. I seem to have been very lucky in the past at predicting the recovery of the pound against the dollar back in February last year when it was down to an all time low. I stated that it would recover to 1.61 by last May. It’s 1.635 today. So I am going to try to predict the pounds peak at March 2010 of which I think will be 1.70 to the US$.
There are those of whom think I try to make things look much rosier than they are, but no I just see the sparks that tell me that things are not as bad as politically minded people may wish to show. The recession is over it was other some months ago the markets are still reassessed but certainly improving. Some of the Bail out plans have turn out as damp squids however something had to be done to inspire confidence in the market place. Many of the things done had some corrupt reasons attached that is always the way concerning elitism and elitist politics. The real stimulation has been the gained confidence in the market place by investors. People want to make money and some have got to!
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San Pedro de A, Malaga, Spain