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Egypt cannot live by bread alone.
by mchawk | July 27, 2008 at 02:58 pm
476 views | 16 Recommendations | 8 comments
With the world fighting wars for oil and ideology, have we all been distracted so long that we've missed a more immediate problem?
No matter what your stance is on 'greenhouse' theory, global temperatures are rising. Higher temperatures means lower rainfall. Lower rainfall means more crops will fail. Failing crops mean that whole countries will no longer be able to feed themselves.
For all our obsession with oil and talk of the Hubbert Peak, has the real 'tipping point' already passed? For all the panic over the price of a gallon of petrol, have we ignored the rising price of a loaf of bread?
Egypt is one such country. There, the government is struggling to keep a lid on the price of basic staples.
This has not prevented people fighting over food - more than ten people have died in fights this last year while waiting in long queues for the subsidised bread.
But government subsidies are merely a band-aid hiding the problem, as water supplies in the area are beginning to dry-up, forcing Egypt to choose between growing more crops to feed their growing populations, or try to preserve what little water they have left. Their search for sources of water and food are becoming increasingly desperate, as Egypt takes what its neighbours consider more than its fair share of the Nile.
No matter what your stance is on 'greenhouse' theory, global temperatures are rising. Higher temperatures means lower rainfall. Lower rainfall means more crops will fail. Failing crops mean that whole countries will no longer be able to feed themselves.
For all our obsession with oil and talk of the Hubbert Peak, has the real 'tipping point' already passed? For all the panic over the price of a gallon of petrol, have we ignored the rising price of a loaf of bread?
Record world prices for most staple foods have led to 18% food price inflation in China, 13% in Indonesia and Pakistan, and 10% or more in Latin America, Russia and India, according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO). Wheat has doubled in price, maize is nearly 50% higher than a year ago and rice is 20% more expensive, says the UN. Next week the FAO is expected to say that global food reserves are at their lowest in 25 years and that prices will remain high for years.
India, Yemen, Mexico, Burkina Faso and several other countries have had, or been close to, food riots in the last year, something not seen in decades of low global food commodity prices. Meanwhile, there are shortages of beef, chicken and milk in Venezuela and other countries as governments try to keep a lid on food price inflation.
Egypt is one such country. There, the government is struggling to keep a lid on the price of basic staples.
In particular, bread and cereal prices increased by 48.1 percent from March 2007 to March 2008, while cooking oils and fats rose by 45.2 percent, according to the official government authority for statistics.
President Hosni Mubarak's government has reacted quickly to ease the price burdens, ordering the military to increase its production of bread and to open makeshift distribution points for subsidized loaves.
Poor people receive 20 pieces of the bread, commonly known as country bread, for a pound ($0.19) instead of four pieces for the same price from a private seller. But the help comes at a price: massive budget overruns that are threatening other government programs as well as social and economic reform.
Aid is now provided to about 55 million people, or 70 percent of the Egyptian populace, and food subsidies are expected to rise to 20 billion pounds ($3.72 billion) this year from 15 billion pounds ($2.79 billion).
This has not prevented people fighting over food - more than ten people have died in fights this last year while waiting in long queues for the subsidised bread.
In early April thousands of workers and residents in the northern town of Mahalla El-Kobra protested the government in a nationwide strike, spread by the help of groups on the social networking Web site Facebook. At least three people died during the riots.
But government subsidies are merely a band-aid hiding the problem, as water supplies in the area are beginning to dry-up, forcing Egypt to choose between growing more crops to feed their growing populations, or try to preserve what little water they have left. Their search for sources of water and food are becoming increasingly desperate, as Egypt takes what its neighbours consider more than its fair share of the Nile.
[Egypt] has for decades dreamed of converting huge swaths of desert into lush farmland. The most ambitious of these projects is in Toshka, a Sahara Desert oasis in a scorched lunar landscape of sand and rock outcroppings.
When the Toshka farm was started in 1997, the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, compared its ambitions to building the pyramids, involving roughly 500,000 acres of farmland and tens of thousands of residents. But no one has moved there, and only 30,000 acres or so have been planted.
The farm’s manager, Mohamed Nagi Mohamed, says the Sahara is perfect for farming, as long as there is plenty of fertilizer and water.
“You can grow anything on this land,” he said, showing off fields of alfalfa and rows of tomatoes and grapes, shielded from the sun by gauzy white netting. “It’s a very nice project, but it needs a lot of money.”
Egypt, at least, has the Nile. Under a 1959 treaty, the country is entitled to a disproportionate share of the river’s water, a point that rankles some of its neighbors. It has built canals to bring Nile water to the Sinai Desert, to desert lands between Cairo and Alexandria and to the vast emptiness of Toshka.
Such projects as Toshka are there to feed a hungry nation, as Egypt is the world's largest consumer of bread per capita. Traditionally, it is also Africa's largest exporter of rice, but the country's farmers plan to cut back on production in 2009 to save water and to plant other crops such as corn and wheat, so desperate are they to keep bread on the shelves.
What then for the countries that rely on the rice? And as the water becomes more and more of a rare commodity in the region, what next for the countries that rely on the waters of the Nile?







Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (8)
at 15:06 on July 27th, 2008
mchawk, I like this story. One of the most disturbing things about this food crisis is the speed at which it has become a crisis.
at 15:09 on July 27th, 2008
I know. The warning signs have been there for decades, but then hindsight is always 20-20.
Thanks for the flag.
at 17:32 on July 27th, 2008
mchawk, I like this story. It's very good stuff.
at 17:35 on July 27th, 2008
mchawk, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 21:02 on July 27th, 2008
mchawk, I like this story. It's good stuff.
This is interesting.
at 22:43 on July 27th, 2008
Thank you all for the flags
at 06:51 on July 28th, 2008
mchawk, I like this story. It is a really interesting piece. I suspect that one (small) contributor to the water shortages was the building of the Aswan Dam which my environmentalist friends tell me is a very waste way of building up water supplies because of the evaporation dams cause. But the World Bank, of course, has always ignored that and I believe the Bank still supports dam building in spite of all the criticisms. People around the Sahara know a lot of ways (in traditional agriculture) of conserving water supplies. Congrats, mchawk!
at 13:30 on July 28th, 2008
Thanks for that, Gerry.
One of the problems with growing urbanisation and diminishing farms, is that younger generations move out of farming and into other jobs. Then the traditional knowledge you mention gets lost for ever. This has already happened in parts of Europe (especially in the UK) and is bound to happen in places like Egypt, as these problems increase. It's a vicious cycle.