Election Database: Yes, the Race is Tightening

Election Database: Yes, the Race is Tightening

You have been hearing alot lately about how the 2008 Presidential race is tightening, not just in national polls, but on the electoral map as well.  So, since it was time to update the Election Projection Database, it was also time to update the munch numbers and truly determine if the race to 270 is indeed tightening.

The result — Yes, the race is tightening.

Currently, the Electoral Projection Database has a whopping 64 projection mocks listed.  Some of them you will recognize, many you will not.  Regardless, if we can find them, we will include them.  We have also paired out some of the mocks that have not been updated in awhile, and others may be on the verge to be deleted next update.

So what is this damn database telling us?

First, we are seeing for the first time some Projection sites projecting McCain the leader.  To make this easier for our viewers, we have created a new column that lists who that site is currently projecting as the electoral college leader (we hope you like that addition).  There has been many blog posts out there on Real Clear Politics projecting McCain the leader right now.  BUT, there are also  3 other sites not projecting McCain the leader, and Real Clear Politics was NOT the first.  The first site to project McCain the leader in our Database was Cold Hearted Truth.

In any regards, there are now 4 sites projecting McCain the leader, 63 projecting Obama the leader.  That right there shows tightening.  Just one week ago, ALL sites projected Obama the leader.

Now, let’s take a look at two different munches we did.  When we munch ALL 67 SITES together, here is where it stands:

Barack Obama:  268.4 ( -19.5 )

John McCain:  221.8 ( +10.6 )

As you can see by these overall munched numbers, Obama has fallen nearly 20 points on the average, while McCain has gained almost 11.  Yes, the race is tightening.

To get a better feel so projection sites that have not updated in awhile do not skew where we are currently at, we also have rolled out a new MUNCH number, a 5 day average, taking all the projection sites that have updated in the last 5 DAYS and munching them out.  There are a total of 27 projection sites that have updated since August 16, 2008.  Munching them together, the numbers look like:

Barack Obama:  269.6

John McCain:  233.6

Again, alot tighter than out August 6th numbers of 287.9 to 211.2.

So yes, folks, the race to 270 is indeed tightening.

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