Election fever grips Pakistan but doubts still persist

With the election day just a few days away, the election-related activities are at their peak across Pakistan and all political parties, except those which have announced to boycott the poll, are busy in electioneering despite fears of suicide attacks but many people are still apprehensive whether the election will be held or any new development will lead to another postponement of the exercise. The parliamentary election was to be held in Pakistan on January 8 but was postponed till February 18 following assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in Rawalpindi on December 27. Not only in Pakistan but all over the world, an immense importance is being attached to the Pakistani election keeping in view the volatile situation in the country.

It is widely believed that the February 18 election will play a key role in setting direction for future of the country. In view of the prevailing situation, the interim Pakistani regime is under enormous pressure from almost the whole world to ensure holding of the election in a free, fair and transparent manner. It will be not wrong to say that this will be the most-monitored election in the history of this South Asian country, which is the only nuclear power among the Islamic states. A large number of election observers and media persons have reached and many others are due to arrive in Pakistan from abroad, particularly the United States and European countries, to monitor the election whereas the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is busy in finalizing arrangements for visits of the foreign election observers as well as the media.

However, the ECP has decided that the foreign observers and media representatives will not be allowed to visit 10 'most sensitive' districts. Political scientists are of the view that a free and fair election are in the best interest of Pakistan because it will add to the credibility of the country at the international level. But if election is rigged, the country might plunge into chaos because it would escalate political instability. The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of slain Bhutto has once again launched its election campaign on conclusion of 40-day mourning after her death. PPP Co-Chairman Asif Zardari is leading the party's electioneering drive. He started his election campaign by addressing a huge public meeting at Thatta and has embarked on a visit to other provinces. According to a recent survey, the PPP of late Bhutto is emerging as the largest political party of the country and according to some studies it would win the majority seats because its candidates would benefit from sympathy wave following assassination of the party chairwoman. According to a report of the International Republic Institute (IRI), the political tensions escalated in Pakistan dramatically after Bhutto was killed as 62 per cent of those questioned during a survey in January believed the government was responsible for her death and not extremists as US and Pakistani authorities contend. "This indicates a collapse in the government's credibility among its citizens," the IRI said in its report. The survey, based on randomly selected sample consisting of 3,485 adult men and women from 223 rural and 127 urban locations in 50 districts in all four provinces of Pakistan, also found that opposition groups, especially the PPP, were likely to profit from a strong sympathy vote at the expense of the pro-Pervez Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q). It noted that Bhutto's party was leading in all provinces across the country, including the pro-Musharraf party's traditional stronghold in Punjab, where the PML-Q was trailing a distant third with only 19 per cent.

If accurate, the outcome of the IRI survey raises the possibility of an opposition sweep by Bhutto's party and the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, assuming the election is not rigged. The survey found half the respondents would vote for Bhutto's party, with PML-N coming in second with 22 per cent and the pro-Musharraf group trailing third with 14 per cent. Tariq Azeem, a spokesman for the pro-Musharraf party, disputed the findings, predicting his group would lose some seats but finish first in Punjab, the largest of Pakistan's four provinces and the key to power. "Turnout in rural areas, where we have strong candidates, is always higher" than in the cities, Azeem said. "People vote here not according to party but according to the candidates." Sarwar Bari, head of the Free and Fair Election Network (Fafen) which monitors the run-up to the parliamentary vote, believes Bhutto's and Sharif's parties will emerge as the largest in the Parliament but that regional groups could win enough seats to deny them a landslide. Another opinion poll released last week by the US-based Terror Free Tomorrow organisation also found that Bhutto's party would win, but by a much smaller margin. That poll, using a smaller sampling, found her party would take 36.7per cent of the vote, with 25.3 per cent going to Sharif's party and 12 per cent to the pro-Musharraf PML-Q. The complicated seat allocation system of Pakistan makes it difficult to forecast how many seats each party might win but the IRI predicted that no party would win enough seats to govern without forming a coalition with rival groups. The survey found 72 per cent would prefer a coalition of Bhutto and Sharif's parties. On the other hand, the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM), a grouping of parties opposed to participation in election under Musharraf, is campaigning for boycott of election. However, the interim regime has warned that those who tried to hinder the electoral process would be put behind the bars. Apparently it is seems no party will get decisive majority in the Parliament and the one bagging the highest number of seats will have to enter into a coalition with other like-minded parties to form government. A vast majority of people believe that a coalition of Bhutto and Sharif's party will be able to form government. However, for the time it is not important for people of Pakistan as well as the outer world as to who forms the next government in Islamabad but it does really matter that election is held or not because any new happening might lead to delay in the election, which could prove detrimental to the very integrity of the country.