Election Projection Database: The Race As It is

Been awhile since we were able to sit down here and actually type up a post about the Election Projection Database and its findings.  It’s a job enough just to keep it updated, which we are doing a few times per day, instead of just daily.

First off, a few nuggets about the Database.  It now lists a total of 82 projection sites.  That is the largest number we have ever had.  Huge!  Second, we added a few things.  First, we added at the bottom, where the compiled munched numbers are located, one additional Munch average.  Since we are getting so many sites now updating on a daily basis, we now provide a munched daily number for the projection sites that updated on the current day.  We have also lowered our recent munch from 5 days to 2 days because so may sites are doing more frequent updates.  Finally, we have add a comment column just in case one of us three blue dudes has a comment to make or something notable to say about a projection site

We would also like to take a quick opportunity to thank the folks at Firedoglake and Marc Ambinder from The Atlantic magazine for links and shout outs they gave the Electoral Projection Database this week.  Greatly appreciated.  We would also like to thank all of the Projection sites that have provided a return link to our Database.  The traffic has been staggering and we appreciate all of our friends out there.

You will also notice a Facebook logo on the top of the Database.  Well, we succumbed.  3BlueDudes.com and the Projection Database are now also on Facebook.  Click the logo on the Database and you’ll get there.  Hey, if you want to add us as a friend, simply request!

Now, on to why you actually clicked on to this article.

As you have witnessed over the past 14 days, the Presidential race has changed dramatically.  Coming off the Sarah Palin announcement and the GOP convention, John McCain was building an impressive run, taking leads in electoral map predictions, in the daily trackers, in state polls, and in other news media trackers.

But then, the wheels fell off.  The Palin effect wore off while her unfavorable numbers rocketed upward as Americans took a closer look at her.  The Wall Street crisis reminded everyone more and more what this election is really about, economics and the need to change the way we approach the economy, the debt, reform of the banking and mortgage industries, and taxes.

With that, Barack Obama has been on a resurgence taking a lead in nearly all tracking polls this week, including a 5 point lead in today’s Gallup, getting boosts in several state polls, and landing Obama on the attack and the offensive.  In essence, it took the race back to pre-Conventions.

With that came the flip flopping back and forth from the Projection sites.  Here are the current numbers:  60 projections sites project Obama leading, 15 project McCain leading, and 8 project a tie.  McCain’s number last week hit a high of 21 projection sites projecting him the leader, but with the recent momentum shift back to Obama, the number for McCain projections continues to dwindle.   Recent state polling has been moving back to favorable for Obama in states like Ohio, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia.  McCain was once surging forward in Florida and Ohio, but those states are back to dead ties.  Obama appears to have pretty good momentum and is building a lead in Michigan and New Mexico.  North Carolina and Virginia are back to 2 to 5 point leads, well within striking distance of Obama and his funds.

There are you munched numbers.  As you can see, the numbers, despite our three various splits, are quite stable.

Given ALL  the sites we munch, given the 2 day and daily munch numbers of many of the best projection sites on the Web, we think these munched numbers are about as perfect to a snap shot of opinion as you are going to get.  Snap shot of where the race is?  Maybe? (we still have ongoing and lingering concerns over the numbers and data pollsters are using and that polling is not reflecting hardly any of the new registered voters and the young voters that have only cell phones).  So, a snap shot of where the race actually is?  I dunno, maybe.  But, we think it is the best and most accurate number of where the prevailing OPINION is on this race.

My thoughts.  There is a clear shift to Obama.  No one argues that, you will likely not even find a McCain adviser that will argue that.  How long will the shift last?  Will it last to the debates?  Those are very important questions, because I think if the shift continues to Obama up and to the debates, Obama is siting in a pretty good spot.   My thought is, I think next week, we are going to continue to see more favorable polling for Obama in the state polls, reflecting the continued mood shift in the national daily trackers.  That is unless, someone screws up over the weekend.

Finally, you can check out our Projection right at the top of the database or right HERE. In addition, if you are a NFL fan like me, and you love when those power polls come out each week, ranking the NFL teams from 1 to 32, well, you can check it out here weekly at 3BlueDudes.com for the Top Ten Electoral Power Poll where Dustin ranks the top ten battleground states and slides them up and down each week based on polling average and other factors.  Read the most recent RIGHT HERE!