Electoral Power Poll

Sorry for the delay on this week’s power poll but there were alot of changes to process.  One of the changes we wanted to make was adding in the 3bd poll average so you can see how we determine the Power Poll.  Also we add the current Electoral Projection status it has in the 3BD

10.) Indiana McCain +4.00 Lean McCain

There hasn’t been any polling here since the conventions so we will have to see how it goes.  But the regional influence of Illinois and a slumping economy could play a big role.  Still it is hard to see a way where this state actually flips.

9.) Michigan Obama +3.09 Tossup

All the polls here have tightened since the GOP convention.  However much like Indiana, it would need a Landslide for McCain to take this state.  Still expect both campaigns to start spending a little more money in this state soon.

8.) Montana McCain +2.33 Tossup

Only one poll released in September and it shows double digits for McCain still there is a very popular Democratic Governor and Senator  up for re-election here so we will have to see where this state lands after the McCain bounce fades.

7.) Nevada McCain +2.27 Tossup

McCain has an edge here but not much of one.  The demographics of this state are changing and Obama has a serious ground game here.  Neither campaign is willing to gamble on this state staying in their column and in a close electoral battle every state counts.

6.) New Mexico Obama +2.13 Tossup

The changing demographics here favor Obama but McCain has enjoyed a nice bounce here after the GOP convention.  You have to think that immigration will play a big part and that is in Obama’s favor, but McCain is from the region and that could help here.

5.) Ohio McCain +2.08 Tossup

This used to be one of the closest races in the country, and it is still close, but recent post convention polling is definitely showing a shift to McCain.  this could swing back easily as the bounce continues to deflate. 

4.) Pennsylvania Obama +1.70 Tossup

A surprise debut here for the Keystone state, vaulting up the ladder quite quickly.  Lots of post convention polling showing smeall Obama lead and a few with mcCain leads here are making the Obama camp and Joe Biden in particular pay closer attention to this state, once thought safe for Obama. 

3.) Colorado Obama +0.90 Tossup

Colorado continues to swing back and forth like a pendulum.  Lots of time and money will be spent here over the next few weeks.

2.) Virginia McCain +0.90 Tossup

Probably the most surprising state on the list is Virgiia.  Even while the opther traditionally red states started to break for McCain after the ocnvention, this one continues to stay close.  With Northern virginia growing at a remarkable race this could be an electoral game changer if the Dems can secure this once red only astate.

1.) New Hampshire Obama +0.43 Tossup

People forget that New hampshire as much as Florida was respnsible for the last 8 years by voting marginally with Bush in 2000.  McCain has always been popular here, using this state to save his 2000 & 20008 campaigns.  Obama has an uphill road to climb as this was a fiercely Hillary state.  it is the only real hope in the NE for the GOP. That’s it, we will be back next week, hopefully Monday, to see where things stand.

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