NP Rank:
The End of an Empire caused by Spiral of Ignorance.
Lack of understanding of the credit crunch is magnifying its damage. Almost nobody appears to know what he is talking about. The havoc of this financial crisis has stretched and outstripped most economists. Governments do have Ministers who are still moving back and forth between wishful thinking and Armageddon in trying to predict the best of all possible recoveries. The truth is that hardly anyone in charge has more than a rudimentary grasp of this crisis, with many of them not even having much of training in economics or commerce.
Banks took far too much risk with their rogue behaviour of novel banking magic that put the world economy in the grip of this severe depression. Now the feds are obsessed about their monetary policies to creating financial stability with their bailouts that eventually will lead to nowhere. The conclusion unfortunately is right that there are not too many around in Authority to be entrusted with solving the mistakes and ruses that caused this crisis. There are merely a few capable to comprehend this financial mess and possibly able to fix it.
First it is important to realize that this time is totally different. Because it is not a recession, it's a very real Depression with all that goes with it, including that whole industries go broke, with a big drop in consumer spending, falling prices, interest rates at zero, and widespread bankruptcies of households and retailers. Causing a huge political shift toward some other ‘ism’.
The world has never seen stimulus efforts of such a huge magnitude as now have been implemented and those still are not sorting any real recovery. This time, consumers are running scared they're losing their jobs and closing their wallets. Better to become conscious that this crisis won't end quickly, or easily.
The amount of excess debt in the United States is about $20 trillion. That's the difference between the usual level of debt of about 150% of GDP and today's level that is about 350%. That $20 trillion in surplus debt probably has to disappear before a true growth cycle can begin again. The best way is simply to let nature take her course. Much of it would be written off in a few months. But the feds won't let that happen. They're doing all they can invent to prevent assets from getting marked down, and to avert debt from getting written off. So far, they've committed $12 trillion to the fight against debt deflation. So instead of writing this debt off, it will have to be paid off or most likely be inflated off.
Currently savings rates have risen from zero to about 3% of GDP. That's about $420 billion per year. Erasing the debt of $20 trillion at that rate will take more than 40 years.
The US Empire, like once the Roman Empire in the past, has come to an end, as a consequence of living beyond their means for too long. America and the west got in the habit of getting shiploads of things from Asia by paying for with pieces of green coloured paper, only to neglecting their own manufacturing potential. The thinking was; let the Asians sweat, while we do the thinking. Not much serious thinking took place over the last 20 years. Complacency at Government, Banking, Wall Street and GM at industrial level took hold. Looks like the same claptrap sold by the Roman Empire, 2.500 odd years ago. The conclusion may be justified that another Empire has come to its end. Look forward to see how a possible next will look alike!
Crowd Power
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PIM of SPAIN
San Pedro de A, Malaga, Spain







Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (17)
at 13:58 on March 18th, 2009
Good piece - I think some people are still in denial that it hasn't hit them yet, but it could end up affecting everyone in some way or another.
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Hugh Askew (not verified)at 15:18 on March 18th, 2009
"Look forward to see how a possible next will look alike!"
no, my guess is that you will look back with longing for what was.
a thousand years of cultural darkness, and/or the prospect of another islamic tyranny.....not much to look forward to.
all the gung-ho social/enviro movements will be naught but bittersweet cultural memories.
the sneering, posturing attitude towards the american dream will be replaced by the new, hard realities of servitude.
Enjoy!
at 18:03 on March 19th, 2009
I recently saw The Watchmen and it summed it up nicely:
In the midst of a riot Nite Owl asks "What ever happened to the American Dream?" The Comedian replies " It came true."
at 07:37 on March 19th, 2009
Hugh Askew wrote: "Look forward to see how a possible next will look alike!" Here is the first step in this process:
Today the FED started with QE that certainly shall speed up the show of the decline.
Quantitative Easing (QE) I wrote about this in one of my recent articles. Will cause the decline in the dollar and its value as reserve currency, thus the beginning of the end for a complete downfall of the Empire.
For better understanding QE means that the Central bank (FED) expands money supply by using newly created money instead of printing it, in buying toxic assets from banks and other financial institutions. The aim is to boost the economy by giving sellers of these toxic assets money to spend on goods, services or ‘better’ assets.
The Ham question now: Why this new spending spree at all? The answer may be that the Fed and policymakers are concerned that the previous floods of money to improve credit conditions not were sufficient to get consumers back to their shopping habit, shop till you drop!
However you cannot drain a country from too much water by adding more of the same!
Shopping sprees won’t happen. QE is just another nail in the coffin of the economy it speeds up the downfall of the dollar as reserve currency. As soon more people in authority start to understand what is happening a huge political shift toward something else will commence.
I remind the reader we are not in a recession but depression so the medicine prescribed by the FED kills the patient, in this case avoiding the economic recovery!
Nothing else for us boondoggles as Wait and See, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
at 18:14 on March 19th, 2009
"...another Empire has come to its end. Look forward to see how a possible next will look alike! "
It would be my hope that there is no replacement for the Roman or American Empire. Humanity has learned a lot over the years and globalization has run its course. If another Empire comes about it will have to be based on a different "ization" or "ism", but I hope for "individualism" to win the day and for people to see their own worth and not give that power away lightly to governments and corporations to run roughshod over individual rights and concerns.
at 19:34 on March 19th, 2009
I need to clarify what I mean by "individualism", I should have wrote "individual responsibility" instead. I believe that we need to be responsible for our own actions and not rely on government to bail us out. I also believe that as individuals we are responsible for the welfare of those less fortunate than ourselves and should seek ways to benefit society and the environment. Group activities are to be lauded, but it is the individuals in the group that make the difference, not the organization itself.
at 01:34 on March 20th, 2009
Yes tireed your comments are very contributive. If people start to act and think to be (more) involved with their individual responsibility with a flavour of some individualism and proud by not looking for hands-out but to perform in their own and their community's interest, then the world will become a much better place to live. All that socialism has made the individual lazy and let them expecting that others are responsible for their well-being instead of doing it themselves.
at 00:36 on March 21st, 2009
PIM, I have to echo Hugh Askew's closing remark and say you do seem a bit happy, maybe with a little bit of crocodile tears, to see the demise of what many felt was the beacon of freedom and opportunity. However that still comes with the respect that you do seem to know what you're talking about, and make several rarely expressed but accurate points.
However, except for the obvious fact that everyone wanted the pay and benefits of the auto workers, but there wasn't enough to go around, Americans did nor make a conscious effort to put Asia to work while we sat and sunned ourselves all day. I get atacked in the most hostile way when I mention this to his adoring fans, and it's hardly partisanship as I voted for Clinton in '92 and Obama in '08, but his corruption influenced policies were clearly the nail in the coffin for US manufacturing and led us into the pit we're in today. From NAFTA to Chinagate to Ron Brown's trade junkets, to even fighting for their civil rights as he built their industry, he spent 8 years altering policies that allowed 100 years of American manufacturing ingenuity be dropped in their laps for the peanuts of some campaign contributions. By now US patents are worthless, copyright protections meaningless, product licensing something only Americans pay American companies for, the rest of the world doesn't have to.
Clinton's supporters would like to forget the Cox report, and ignore the campaign finance scandal of 1996, and insist all presidents fostered relations with China and took questionable campaign contributions.None of the examples they will point to were a President illegally accepting large sums of money from a foreign nation's officials and altering policies for their benefit with congress censuring those actions.
It became all that much worse after he left because Wall St. feeds upon America, and when they had no American factories to pour money into in the hopes of a healthy return, they created an industry to invest in-junk mortgages, and it was not self sustaining, neither was the consumer economy which saw a Walmart open across the street from a shuttered factory in towns across America.
Accuse me of partisanship they will and point at a balanced (projected) budget in 2000. I would offer that was the result of the plundering of America's assets by the stockholders of the companies that sent production overseas. It may be anectdotal but it's tangible and beyond denial: In 1992, every single consumer good sold in this country of any consequence, no matter where it was manufactured, had molded or labelled on the bottom, "US Patent # _,___,___,___". By soon after 2001, Every product still had a label. Made in China.
(I might add I believe we went into Iraq primarily to stop Saddam's scheme of actively undermining the dollar and was setting up a landslide selloff to take place when Blix found him in compliance by summertime. Saddam already had a pipeline of oil for capital and goods established throughout Europe because of oil for food, and Iran and Venezuela were on board to change to oil sales in Euros. With the euro gaining on the dollar and the US seizing assets of Muslim countries for supporting terrorism, there was no love for the dollar and Saddam's terrorist bounties fanned the flames with every explosion. It's not that Bush thought Saddam had WMD, it's that we knew Saddam gamed the UN and would get off sanctions and would have tons of cash, his weapons suppliers in country pumping oil like mad, and the Arab world united against us. Don't act surprised, the economy as a weapon was how we buried the USSR. ) The dollar fell somewhat anyway, but not by runaway selloff.
So th depression is on and they know it. They are ready for the chaos. Look up "organized stalking".
at 23:06 on March 21st, 2009
Battvette, your argument is hard to follow, and as far as PIM being "happy" about the fall of the American empire, it is like the fall of the Roman Empire. Many enjoy the developments of the Roman and American Empires, but most to not realize at what cost it came, or in the case of America the present and future cost. Americans, like the Romans are legends in their own minds, and this blinds them to how they are viewed from outside the empire, or in the outskirts of the empire.
at 01:03 on March 22nd, 2009
"Battvette, your argument is hard to follow,"
As you are (presumably) not American, a discussion about the internal policies regarding our elected leaders is one I would expect is out of the realm of your expertise.
Without implying anything personal, as a resident of what is now part of China, I don't appreciate the "legend in our own minds" comment, when the theft of our intellectual properties by Chinese industry is the core to this issue. 87% of the software sold in China is bootleg. Chinese manufacturers not only trample US patent holders wholesale, in many cases when they copied the product they Xeroxed the instruction manual as well. America's fortunes dwindled, as China's flourished, but it wasn't just hard work. A lot of it was just plain stolen from us. Thank you for the reply.
at 01:58 on March 22nd, 2009
Sorry to dissapoint you, but I am an American, I just saw the handwriting on the wall and decided it best to be elsewhere. As far as the "legend in our own minds" comment, you prove my point nicely.
at 07:55 on March 22nd, 2009
Well if your best argument is to avoid the multitude of topically relevant issues I raised with the assumed ignorance of "I can't follow your argument" and continue with cheap shot ad hominem insults, I can't say we're sorry you left. You've not addressed a THING I originally posted, and seem to be making contemptuous comments about Americans in general. I can't prevent that nor do I really care, but don't fool yourself that it represents superiority on any level.
Have a nice day under the brown cloud.
at 17:52 on March 22nd, 2009
I never said anything against you personally, merely the attitude that is prevalent among most Americans. You made it personal by attacking my background, an ad hominem insult. But back to the topic at hand, we will all be better off after the dust has finally settled form the colloapse of the "American Empire" whenever that may be.
at 00:30 on March 24th, 2009
This was taking it personal:
As far as the "legend in our own minds" comment, you prove my point nicely.
As for the Hong Kong thing, the reason I mentioned it was that I perceived the "good riddens" attitude by a citizen/resident/whatever of the country whose industries have hugely profited by the outright theft of our intellectual properties- it's like running over a pedestrian and doubling back as he's laying in the street with broken bones and hollering that they need to stay out of crosswalks.
But forget the ad hominem aspect, your final statement is your opinion and you are allowed to it, but it's obviously dead wrong if "we ALL " is inclusive to Americans or the countries our policy of spreading democracy and discouraging totalitarian communist governments benefitted.
The whole thing smacks of simple cheering at the fall of the current champion. Since no tangible evidence actually suggests it is deserved, at such sour grapes I say "is that the best you got?"
As for the legend in our own minds thing, well....... MOON. Been there? The list of examples is plenty, including when I was in the Navy serving on the USS Coral Sea, a 15 carrier 500 ship Navy that the next 3 runner ups together would have been scared to get near on a good day.
at 03:06 on April 3rd, 2009
First I apologize for not participating in this discussion being the initiator of the subject, due the fact that I was traveling throughout Europe during the course of the last 2 weeks.
Further you both are American and I'm European, more specifically Dutch. This may make the difference of approach. Although I have been a fervent supporter of the USA and a frequent business traveler in the US, this may have offered me a better understanding as impartial observer. I can follow batvette's arguments and for the majority agree with, like the US-patent situation etc, but also agree with tlreed that the subject should be interpreted from a more neutral point of view. Probably by living outside the USA we do have acquired a more neutral and nuanced opinion. Anyhow it is interesting reading and I thank both batvette and tleerd for their contributions to this discussion.
at 10:06 on April 3rd, 2009
this may have offered me a better understanding as impartial observer.
That can't be denied, and from that perspective I imagine the sentiment in Europe is it's all coming back to bite us afrter Kissinger made the deal with the Saudis in 1973 (that secured the "petrodollars" monetary scheme) despite our promise to the G7 we would not do so behind their back.
A plan that allowed America to print money as fast as developing nations could consume petroleum and trade us real goods and services for. What the hell could go wrong with that? :-) (in retrospect anyone would have done the same, and so would we again, though I think we could have better prepared for the consequences)
It does also put in perspective our precarious situation involving ourselves in middle east conflicts. On one hand we owe the Saudi Royal family almost all the credit for American prosperity in the 35 years since, while we are ideological brothers in many ways and staunch allies with their enemies, the Israelis.
at 11:08 on April 3rd, 2009
A plan that allowed America to print money as fast...
For that part of the subject I may refer to my today's contribution:
The U.S. is a Ponzi Nation
http://my.nowpublic.com/world/u-s-ponzi-nation
I still hope that I'm wrong, but every day in this ongoing saga still confirms me that I'm right with my opinion. I feel sorry for the people of the wealthiest nation on earth.