On the Eve of Post-Khamenei, Post-Twitter Iran

The futures of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are certain to be abbreviated in the aftermath of the street violence on June 20.  Ahmadinejad and Khamenei have further isolated themselves from many of the clerics who hold their fate in their hands and any efforts to wield their power to arrest Mir Hussein Mousavi or other high profile members of the opposition will likely only accelerate their downfall.

The clerics meeting in Qom, the religious base of the country and Ayatollah Khomeini's birthplace, have a great deal to ponder.  Beyond weighing the fates of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, there are also question about how the government ought to be structured to ensure more checks and balances between the branches of government. 

Meanwhile, the interregnum in the protests, however brief, is an opportunity to consider how the revolution will play out in the streets, the social media and beyond.

As a point of reference, I would like to cite the 1979 revolution as an object lesson.  That revolution, against Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, brought together an alliance of Islamic fundamentalists, communists, bazaaris, liberals and reformists, to name just a few of the groups who allied to end the Shah's rule.  After the Shah's ouster and the return of Ayatollah Khomeini, the non-clerical groups involved were manoevered out of a voice or role in the formation of the new government and the writing of its constitution.

The groups that were involved in the 1979 revolution did not have social media at their disposal.  Flash mobs were an undreamt of concept and the lines of personal communication that existed required people cooperate and coordinate far more closely and personally then than they do in 2009.

If groups who were so closely involved in the revolution got left out, how will individuals brought together by the internet and social media manage to ensure that the stake they have in these protests or this revolution will get what they want?  How many chairs do you want to set at the table?

The groups that have gathered in the streets of Iran bring an incredible diversity of goals and interests.  Women are seeking greater individual rights.  Students are seeking more certain opportunity for their future.  The word freedom has been a clarion call but a very, very broad umbrella.  Others are protesting the mismanagement of the economy - which not only Ahmadinejad, but all of the rulers of the Islamic Republic bungled in their obsession with enforcing their cultural rules and funding of their brethren with Hamas and Hezbollah.  The outcome of the election and the surge of support for Mir Hussein Mousavi is only one thread in the tapestry of grievances that have made so many Iranians say "Enough!" in the last week.

While social media has served to rally people to the streets and communicate the information about the fluid events that are unfolding, the mob remains relatively faceless and the subtleties of their motivations remain difficult to capture in 140 characters or less.  Twitter has been a valuable tool thus far, but the changes that must occur in the aftermath of Khamenei's likely downfall will require patience and precision of message.

The great question that remains as the clerics form new alliances and try to strike a balance between appeasing their peers and appeasing their nation is: "How will the diverse needs and desires of these people be satisfied, not to mention communicated accurately?"  There is a good possibility that Twitter's value as a vehicle for change may be overrated and those who rely on it will quickly frazzle from the urgency and frenzy the platform has demonstrated since the election results were announced. 

Ultimately, a more extensive dialogue must take place for Iran's democratic, social and economic evolutions to be as satisfying and complete as the people in the streets want it to be.  The  iconography of new martyrs and fallen leaders would be incomplete if the people of Iran do not get some assurance that they will get something other than new faces and figureheads.

Hard work remains.