Exit Polls Lok Sabha Elections 2009 in India Too Close to Call

by Ravi Dixit | May 13, 2009 at 04:28 am

23692 views | 73 Recommendations | 73 comments

Party / Alliance	CNN IBN	Star News	India TV	Zee Business
UPA	185 - 205	202	195	182
Congress	145- 160	157	152	145
4th Front	25 -35	34	32	30
NDA	165 -180	198	189	208
BJP	135-150	154	143	157
3rd Front	110 -130	97	113	109
Left Front	30- 40		34	30
BSP	25 -35		27	25
Others	20 - 30	11	14	14

Looks like the UPA has a slight edge over NDA but the margin is so slim that the sampling and non sampling errors can swing it either way, so it is still too close to call.

Congress is predicting 160 to 175 seats for itself.

NDTV Exit Poll is predicting:

Andhra Pradesh: UPA to sweep the state with 29 seats, NDA will have to se satisfied with 2 and 3rd front is predicted to get 10 seats. Looks like the saffron march of BJP has not moved beyond Karnataka.

Tamil Nadu: NDA 0, UPA 20, 3rd Front 18

Bihar NDA 33, UPA 1, 3rd Front 0, 4th Front 5, Others 1

UPA’S ROUTES TO POWER

OPTION 1:

Cong and its allies get close to 200 seats

RJD, LJP and SP add about 40 seats

The Left with 35 seats gives outside support

UPA+ crosses majority mark

Likelihood: Possible

Some More Details from the Star News Survey:

BJP 153, JDU 17, Shiv Sena 9, TRS 5, LGP 4, AGP 4, TDP 10, BJD 10, RLD 3, Akali Dal 2, Independents 8 and hoping that BSP joins them it will not take NDA across the Majority Mark and will be stuck at 253. But at these levels the statistical errors come into picture and on 16th it can go either way. SO STILL IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

As per Times Now Survey for Rajasthan the predictions are Congress 13, BJP 10, Others 2 out of 25 seats. Uttar Pradesh UP Congress 13, SP 23, BSP 28, SP 35, BJP 17

As per CNN IBN & Dainik Bhaskar survey condusted by CSNS in Karnataka BJP will still lead Congress and share of votes for Congress and JDS is expected to fall.

These are early days yet and there are major difference between three exit polls.Looks like that this race is also too close to call and many surveys might bite the dust. In 2004 Lok Sabha Elections too almost all the exit pools predicted a victory for BJP led NDA and when the votes were actually counted it was Congress led UPA that came to power and ruled for the next 5 years too!!

This will be an interesting evening as more exit poll results come out.

All the news media are now past the Election Commission deadline for Exit Polls for Indian General Elections 2009 to elect the next Lok Sabha (The Indian Parliament) are out and there is a scramble for the Polls and this is how it is playing out in various news media.

Statewise Exit Poll Results 2009:

UP SP 22, BSP 32, Congress 10 and BJP 13, MP NDA 23, UPA 3 only; AP Congress 22, TDP 14, Orissa Congress 10, BJP 3, BJD 8; Punjab Congress 7, BJP + Akali Dal 6,Delhi prediction is that Congress will lead the Capital with 5 seats and BJP will lag behind with 2 seats predicted there. Gujarat contnues to be loyal to Narendra Modi and BJP is predicted to win 18 and Congress only 8, Maharashtra seems to bunk the anti incumbancy with Congress winning 15 and NCP predicted to win 14 seats. The divisive politics that seemed to be a master stroke for a while does not seem to work at least in the Exit Polls.

Rajasthan is going congress way with Congress predicted to gain 14 seats and 11 seats for BJP. So the trend that brought Ashok Gehlot is still continuing and BJP is still struggling in this state.

In short Most of the Hindi heartland like UP, Bihar, Gujarat (Modi Magic) and MP are going with NDA and states like Rajasthan, WB, Punjab, Delhi and most of the bigger South Indian states are predicted to go to UPA. Now in short it all depends on the Left parties and they are not on board for UPA then it will be impossible for anyone to form a government. It was being said that left will only support a congress government if Dr. Manmohan Singh is not at the helm of affairs. Media reports are now coming in that Congress is pretty firm on their stand that if they have to form a government Dr. Manmohan Singh will be the Prime Minister. Now if the table turn on May 16th and NDA comes to power then all this calculations will go for a toss. If recent upward trend in the stock market is an indication then the situation does favour UPA.

The actual counting of votes will take place on 16th of May but the exit poll predictions will be out today evening and the entire country will be glued to their TV sets to see if their votes have made an impact and which party will be ruling the country.

Exit Polls 2009

Currently TV Today Network has come out with national numbers with the ruling UPA that is backed by congress party is predicted to get 191 seats, NDA the alliance led by BJP is predicted to get 180 seats, left that was a part of UPA in 2004 elections is predicted to get 38 seats and 134 seats are predicted to be won by other regional parties and independents.

In short it is a hung parliament like in the previous elections and the era of coalitions is there to stay.

All the other news outlets will be coming out with their national figures shortly.

The Times of India has a great feature where they have reproduced pages from their print editions for 1957 to 2004. Click here to go on a long drive into History of Indian Elections.

NEW DELHI: Long and winding elections to Lok Sabha finally ended on Wednesday, but roughly half of the 71.4 crore registered electors

An elderly voter being helped at a polling booth in Chandigarh. (PTI Photo)More Pictures

participated in this democratic exercise that is widely expected to deliver a hung house.

The Congress-led UPA is looking for a new term in office while the NDA steered by the BJP is trying to end its term in the opposition, although it isn't clear if one of them would on their own be able to muster the 272 seats needed to stake claim for power.

7 See all footage | View Slideshow

Share: email story | add to any | | facebook | stumbleupon

recommend This comment thread is now closed

aditya sharma1125 (not verified)

at 05:31 on May 13th, 2009

In my opinion, Congress led UPA should rule over the country for next 5 years if we want the growth of the country.

Ravi Dixit

at 05:43 on May 13th, 2009

Lets see Aditya , these are just exit polls that have been proven wrong in the past.. the real decider will be on 16th May and we will all know for sure. Till then we can pray for our favourite party to win.

Post that all should work together to support the new government!!

nitish p (not verified)

at 06:21 on May 15th, 2009

Indian politician speaks to one of his slave, another slum dog, i wonder why elections are held, we always win, questions are standard and our response is also standard.

Their are no roads- We are Secular and BJP is comm

Population is 116 crore, it will be soon 150 crore-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP is comm

No quality of life, people want to eat other people, honesty , integrity, compassion, culture all exits in Amar Chitra Katha stories now-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP is comm

Well air is no dirty, no water, no system, so much of corruption, no jobs, people are doing slavery-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP Is comm

Common citizen is suffering, is paying taxes for what, atrocities by police, no healthcare, look at government hospitals-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP is comm

Terrorists are attacking, Taliban is taking over, they will make Indian just like Pakistan-Hey stop all this, remember we are SECULAR and BJP is comm

Due to population Sir no Food to eat even-I already have US citizenship, keep playing on this tape recorder, yes Sir "We are SECULAR and BJP Is comm

rahul rajput (not verified)

at 09:25 on May 13th, 2009

According to me, NDA should form Government in the interest of India's growth and all other non UPA party should support NDA for this noble cause.

prathap (not verified)

at 21:19 on May 14th, 2009

yes u are correct. we want Advaniji as a PM

megh (not verified)

at 06:37 on May 15th, 2009

Lalu is corrupt or not?
Mulayam is corrupt or not?
Mayawati is corrupt or not?
Pawar is corrupt or not?
Karunanidhi is corrupt or not
Devagowda is corrupt or not?
Paswan is corrupt or not?
Jaylalita is corrupt or not?
But all are secular...They hates with commun.. party. They want only money by making fool to us.

megh (not verified)

at 06:41 on May 15th, 2009

When I was watching star news yesterday,Girija vyas in the programme was trying prove herself and her party as secular several times.Lalu yadav is also doing the same.But poor indians now confused about the meaning of secularism.CPM,CONGRESS,RJD alll parties define themselves as secular.But onething as UPA was born as secular with several leaders who are involved in scandals,corruption.Even Sonia speaks in public only if a written paper available for her describes herself as secular.So who is comm?those who are saying against terrorism and congress party.

OmprakashRudhru (not verified)

at 12:28 on May 13th, 2009

Stupid UPA.

Tell me one major decision or a great policy they made during last 5 years. (I don't have to tell u on their internal security policies)

In abroad, Prices have dropped by even 50% during financial crisis.

Average expenses for food, transportation has more than doubled in last 5 years. Would you not agree.

I hope BJP gets rid of stupid communal gurus soon and comes clean infront of people. At the moment, I see the need for NDA to come into power and I seriously wish NDA Allies makes sure BJP don't do any stupid things that hurts my country's pride.

sanjay sharma (not verified)

at 13:23 on May 13th, 2009

Major decisions:

1. Right to Information

2. NREGA- National Rural Employment Gurantee Act

3. Forest Bill

stop following what you are told..think and question. God gave us the brain not to follow but to question..

Ms. Gretta Castelino (not verified)

at 05:43 on May 21st, 2009

I agree with u, Mr. Sharma. The previous Govt. has done a great deal for the nation as a whole. We shall come to know about it only after we stop staring at their flaws; and stop listening to anti-democratic people!!

VANDEMATARAM

at 21:47 on May 13th, 2009

Mr. Aditya, I think you are in abroad so that you are not knowing facts about last 5 year news from India. If you are loyal to country than you should not have to will that UPA will ruling the India for next 5 years.
You know Our Indian Government failed in many important factors.

1. UPA foreign Policies are totally failed with our neighbors like Nepal, Shrilanka, Bangladesh. They have no trust on us.
2. Every time Mr. Pranab has to ask America for indian pouint of view.
3. last seven months cruderate is fall down but u can see still the rate of petrol and diesel is not going to down . that'swhy the inflation rate is going to fall but actual inflation fall is not seen in the market.
4. UPA is totally failed to prevent terrorist attacks contineously in India.
5. UPA stopped Mr. Bajpayee's groth plans like To connect big rivers with each other and widen the National & state highways.

There are n numbers of reasons that it is not advisable to come again UPA and spoil our Indian economy, foreign policy and home security. I hope that you are also going to convience other people to share my message.

JAI HIND, Vande Mataram.

My best regards

K K Pandya

h.punnilath (not verified)

at 03:20 on May 14th, 2009

Hi Aditya.

you are truely an indian who looks positively. for the developement of ower great country we need a broad minded leadership with out any bias to race,language,religion and cast. it will be good for our country for keeping away the narrow minded and racist parties from distructing the peace & developement of our country

het (not verified)

at 16:26 on May 14th, 2009

growth like last 55 years

megh (not verified)

at 06:16 on May 15th, 2009

Indian politician speaks to one of his slave, another slum dog, i wonder why elections are held, we always win, questions are standard and our response is also standard.

Their are no roads- We are Secular and BJP is comm...,

Population is 116 crore, it will be soon 150 crore-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP is comm...,

No quality of life, people want to eat other people, honesty , integrity, compassion, culture all exits in Amar Chitra Katha stories now-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP is comm...,

Well air is no dirty, no water, no system, so much of corruption, no jobs, people are doing slavery-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP Is comm....,

Common citizen is suffering, is paying taxes for what, atrocities by police, no healthcare, look at government hospitals-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP is comm..,

Terrorists are attacking, Taliban is taking over, they will make Indian just like Pakistan-Hey stop all this, remember we are SECULAR and BJP is comm...,

Due to population Sir no Food to eat even-I already have US citizenship, keep playing on this tape recorder, yes Sir "We are SECULAR and BJP Is comm...,

atul sharma (not verified)

at 06:19 on May 15th, 2009

Indian politician speaks to one of his slave, another slum dog, i wonder why elections are held, we always win, questions are standard and our response is also standard.

Their are no roads- We are Secular and BJP is comm

Population is 116 crore, it will be soon 150 crore-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP is comm

No quality of life, people want to eat other people, honesty , integrity, compassion, culture all exits in Amar Chitra Katha stories now-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP is comm

Well air is no dirty, no water, no system, so much of corruption, no jobs, people are doing slavery-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP Is comm

Common citizen is suffering, is paying taxes for what, atrocities by police, no healthcare, look at government hospitals-Hey we are SECULAR and BJP is comm

Terrorists are attacking, Taliban is taking over, they will make Indian just like Pakistan-Hey stop all this, remember we are SECULAR and BJP is comm.

Due to population Sir no Food to eat even-I already have US citizenship, keep playing on this tape recorder, yes Sir "We are SECULAR and BJP Is comm

Gokuldas (not verified)

at 06:00 on May 13th, 2009

We will wait till 16th, till that we are having hope that our favorite party will win.

Rupesh Shah (not verified)

at 06:11 on May 13th, 2009

According to me, NDA should form Government in the interest of India's growth and all other non UPA party should support NDA for this noble cause.

Jarrett Martineau

at 07:10 on May 13th, 2009

Thanks for this Ravi. Looking forward to hearing more results as they're counted.

dr. vikas papreja (not verified)

at 10:29 on May 13th, 2009

UPA should comes to the power for the better future of india. india is doing well better than other countries like UK, japan and european countries. and dr. manmohan singh proven that he is a man with soft voice and hard determination for the country.

Nizz (not verified)

at 11:03 on May 13th, 2009

I am hoping UPA comes to power back, I want Manmohan to be our PM and Chidambram to be given more oppurtunities.

I also have a better IDEA - Wondering why BJP and Congress don't come together to give us a stable government.

when BJP can pretend to be secular, when in NDA, why can't they have the same attitude and join hands with Congress. Atleast this move will save india from Maya, Jaya and Mamta triangle.

one more triangle to add lalu - paswan- mulayam..

we need a brk - Cong + BJP = Stable Government.

mmj.raipur (not verified)

at 22:17 on May 13th, 2009

This is the only sensible comment I could see. But will it happen, that is the billion Rs question. But for the sake of country these parties should come together to from a strong government and should discourage regional and personal parties which is core reason for uncertinity and increasing curruption in our country. These small parties with vested personal interest of some individuals are really pulling down the country. In this process main parties i.e Congress and BJP is alo diluting its principle and policies to grab power by alligning with these small parties.Congress and BJP should come together and should amend the constitution debarring small regional parties from participating Lok Sabha elections.Two or three parties at State level and Central level should be recognised to take part in elections to improve the quality of house and to curb politically encouraged curruption,

shukla_s (not verified)

at 10:49 on May 13th, 2009

we want a prime minister elected by the people of india, not by the so called first family of our nation

girish khatwani (not verified)

at 11:30 on May 13th, 2009

Opinion poll suggested Approx 200 Seats for both NDA and UPA

My Opinion is that NDA will get Clear Majority

BJP 200

NDA 274

Srini Indian (not verified)

at 16:48 on May 13th, 2009

NDA will get more seats but may not get majority, it needs to take some more parties from 3rd front. ADMK ally from TN will join.

girish khatwani

at 10:07 on May 15th, 2009

srini i think bjp will get almost 200 seats and together with alliance 274

Amy Judd

at 11:43 on May 13th, 2009

Great job on this Ravi as always.

MEGH (not verified)

at 11:47 on May 13th, 2009

Do we want the Prime Minister Like Manmohan Singh who is not clear when he speak any language, Can Not Take Decisions, Allow the terrorist activities with its International Policy,Does not have good team,Even he does not waive the hand properly to audiance.

I mean comparing him and his team with todays world it looks very odd to me

Why talking secularism always when it is not at the ground level anywhere in india like the rascism in US is no more now.

We need dedicated people to run the country like Modi, Arun Jaitely, Advani, Rajnath Singh , etc

jp patnaik (not verified)

at 12:04 on May 13th, 2009

no congress nda will come back to power.....advaniji is the strongest primeminister....

Awakener (not verified)

at 21:14 on May 13th, 2009

At 80+ Advani is strongest! I saw he even can't walk at normal space and want to run country like india!He has only one dream ,to become prime minister! that's all.We need Young and energetic with new and fresh ideas to run and improve the economic and health of the nation.