Fight for Arctic a Global Division or Co-operation: War or Peace?

by sara star | August 20, 2009 at 09:13 am

403 views | 84 Recommendations | 17 comments

Nations will do well to form diplomatic relations with Russia, rather than dismiss it as a dismal failure. Or any country for that matter.

The days of nationalism are fading. Welcome internationalism or pay the price. What happens in one country, affects us all, now more than ever. We may be against a one world order, but we do have to cooperate with each other, with no one country being supreme over the other.

We have to live here together or not at all. Political and religious prejudice must vanish. Freedom of speech does not mean we should abandon diplomacy.

Since the beginning of time we have lived as tribes. In this modern age, this is no longer viable. Too many now have a nuclear power button, and we truly do need a reset button. With the Arctic Ice melting since the end of the Cold War, we may see an emergence of a newly formed battle, the Red War, sizzling like white heat on cast iron.

Respected British think-tank Jane's Review warned that a polar war could be a reality within 12 years. And the Russians are already taking the race for the North Pole's oil wealth deadly seriously.

As an example, Russia has been quite serious, and on the edge of aggressive to stake claim to the North Pole.

According to the Rossiyskaya Gazeta in Russia:

...the fight for the Arctic will be the initial spark for a new division of the world.

... "We are not prepared to give our Arctic to anyone."

Chilingarov -- who in August 2007 used a remote-controlled submarine arm to plant a Russian flag made of titanium on the ocean floor at the North Pole ...wants to "present evidence to the United Nations within one year" that the North Pole belongs to the Russians. His threat to those in the West who disagree is simple: "If these rights are not recognized, Russia will withdraw from the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea."

Source: businessweek.com

Any confrontation over the Arctic would be a naval one, with Russia's Northern Fleet, based at Murmansk, confronting the U.S. Second Fleet.

Fully two-thirds of Russia's naval power is allocated to its Northern Fleet. The fleet also boasts Russia's newly-revamped nuclear missile submarines.

The fleet is also armed with new, sea-launched Bulava intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles, which are designed to evade U.S. missile defence shields and destroy entire cities.

The Kremlin has made it clear that it has set its sights on domination of the last great wilderness on Earth.

Vladimir Putin... long vowed to build an 'energy empire' and dreamed of reversing the collapse of Russian power after the fall of the Soviet Union, an event he once called 'the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century'.

LET US HOPE THAT THE NORTHERN LIGHTS WILL GUIDE THE WAY

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jazzyzazzy

at 09:43 on August 20th, 2009

Love and light.great post,loved the video too.

Babel-Fish

at 09:59 on August 20th, 2009

If we do not become less reliant on gas and oil the reality of a war over Arctic is a very great possibility but at present Russia is posturing, Canada is enjoying it war games and Britain is looking at the other pole as being more profitable and less trouble. Thus the protection of the Falkland Islands.

Global Chess is however not all about war, its about flexing a muscle here and a muscle there. Its also deception I am more interested in the Caspian Basin and Russia's next move of which will be a real one.

My analysis concerning the game is to do with situations before Russia's latest claim, this came after USA interference in Georgia and its deepened exploitation within the old USSR satellites around the oil and gas rich Caspian Sea basin. It's all to do with Russia's long term plan reference oil and gas as a major European and Asian supplier. USA destroyed much of that planning with its global chess moves. Remember Putin stating "USA is pinching our minerals" Prior to the Russian Georgian war. Then Putin declared Russia was in charge of all shipping on the Caspian sea around about the same time.

Russia has made a bold statement of leave the Caspian basin to Russia or we will exploit the Arctic for oil and gas within the next decade. Knowing Russia its present bluff move is hiding the fact it may go to war and take the Caspian Basin in an excuse to saving its Russian population living there. Its actual a more profitable option as extracting oil and gas in frozen climates can be expensive mainly due to its transportation.

So its my thoughts that the Canadian forces are wasting time with to many war games if that was going to be the plan. However one or two can be fun, I personally wished I could join them as I love Skiing.

I really think Russia is weighing up the odds in taking the Caspian Basin back into its fold. However what would USA do? that is the big question and would Russia gamble USA would do nothing? The second big question.

I of course be wrong in my study of the Global Chess game at a guess the odds I am right are in fact well within my favor unfortunately and I do hate war. I would prefer to be wrong.

Of course if Russia does take over the Caspian sea they would better wait until the oil and gas fields have been completely developed possible about 3 to 5 years would be a planned deadline, why do it your self when others can do it for you.

sara star

at 10:13 on August 20th, 2009

BF -Sabotage would be a big concern.

Amy Judd

at 10:46 on August 20th, 2009

A scary, yet very true piece about what could be our fate, well done.

Pythiian1

at 12:50 on August 20th, 2009

Good piece, Sara, insightful views on Russian's extra-territorial ambitions and dominance.

Paschen

at 13:15 on August 20th, 2009

The EU has half a billion people living on its territory, Russia has 146 million on its own territory and Canada has 32 million and the US have 304 million on theirs.

Russia is more concerned with the threat from China and India, both being totally over populated and ready to push out their borders.

Canada on its own is no match for Russia or the EU and can not exist with out US protection.

This the US may not be willing to do with out having control as well and may make Canada part of the USA.

Then it may as well become part of Russia or the EU.

Canada will have to shows it partner and allies carefully and should get ready to be assimilated.

The only way to avoid an assimilation by the US or Russia may be to join the EU and beg them to be a full member state.

For Russia is serious and the US will not let this chance go by to annex Canada if they can.

The only real powers in this particular game here, are Russia, the US and the EU.

Canada will have to side with one of those three, it has no choice. But there is a price that comes with that as well. That may be dear and put an end to Canada all together.

sara star

at 13:24 on August 20th, 2009

They would have to choose very carefully, in that event. All of them would want something in return.

Canada would be better off pushing for an international park.

Paschen

at 13:49 on August 20th, 2009

That may not happen though Sara, not with the power Russia and the US have by them self.

And certainly not with what is going on in China and India. Those days are over for a very long time.

This is war for energy and resources and the super powers want it all and want full control over it.

Canada has plenty of resources even with out the Arctic. meaning the US will want that soon as well and they have the means to get it one way or the other.

In the back rooms Russia and the US may make a deal and divide it up, Canada will have no say in it, unless it know how to play them and beet them at their own game.

Canada can always form an alliance with China as well. That may be dear though. Either way there will be a price tag and concessions to be made.

sara star

at 13:59 on August 20th, 2009

To what end??? Once the resources are consumed we will only have each other to feed on. Not a pretty sight.

sara star

at 13:59 on August 20th, 2009

Paschen

at 14:05 on August 20th, 2009

That would be a long term vision wish has not yet been used by any of our Governments since WWII.

The Resources may last for another 25 to 75 years. Enough time for the current leaders Grand kids to Grow up.

That is all that matters for them. Not to many people can envision be on a generation and most have trouble with a decade.

And the hope is that until then they fund some thing else. Reality and Wisdom is not part of today's Political landscape nor will the masses embrace wisdom in a democratic system as our are nowadays.

No one want to make concessions of their own free will, or do they?

Sadly we are as voters in large part responsible for this as well.

Babel-Fish

at 18:54 on August 20th, 2009

No one can really place a time limit on oil reserves even in this day and age it's estimated, the problem is that new oil fields have to be tapped and developed. Russia has a plan to use its mineral wealth and it included its ex-satellites within its control and supply plan to become a wealthy world leader. Its plan is time limited at a guess I would say on a 10 years plan, as the country has a potential cheap labor force it will be looking at developing its manufacturing abilities and infrastructure, basically copying China's developments.

The need to secure new oil and gas fields to ensure its growth continues at the point its already exploited reserves are down to 50% or 30%. Oil and gas being state run to ensure most of the profits go into the government treasury these and other mineral commodities are seen to be the way to Russia's Utopian future as a super power and to defend against China, EU and USA being more powerful than they wish to be. China is still controlling its population and has no plans to expand its territory so the only threat of population expansion is India however they are not really that dynamic and wealthy enough to do so in my opinion.

Russia is still looking at the Caspian Sea Basin as it is estimated as having the second biggest or more oil and gas reserves in the world ready to be tapped. USA, UK and China are all on the band wagon of oil development and transportation within the Caspian basin area and Russia want to be the only one doing just that. by stirring up trouble in the area they may provide an excuse to take over and control the Caspian Sea basin area.

The frozen north has Hugh reserves of oil and gas and Russia and all concerned knows the problems of exploiting them so far the reserves have been put on the back burner and any exploitation has been on the out skirts of the potential oil and gas fields. Bad weather in the frozen wastes and the extreme cold helps push up the cost of exploitation and oil and gas delivery.

Russia is seething about foreign intervention in the oil and gas rich ex-soviet states especially USA oil companies and US interests in the Caspian sea and of course the prospective oil supply lines towards China and Asia and to the coast where oil and gas can be shipped. Russian is flexing its muscles within the Arctic area making a Hugh ambitious claim for arctic territory. It however knows war on the issue is out of the question there are too many nations involved. Its just annoying tactics that take emphasis off of its Caspian sea plans and plans for some of its ex-satellites. USA is applying tactics that give it some control over Russian, Chinese and development controlling oil and gas supply has been the main rules of all their global chess game moves.

Canada will not be at war with anyone but of course be seeing a constant threat concerning it's arctic territories and USA will not annex them its got its own un-exploited oil reserves. US interests are far away from Canadian shores its main problems concerning world struggles are China, Russia and its getting wary of the path of EU.

The answer is we all become much less dependent on fossil fuels and phase them out pronto, we need people power to bully governments to see sense and make real efforts and not half hearten ones to impose renewable power and rid our roads of fossil fuel guzzlers by banning their manufacture, putting high taxes on fossil fuels.

The oil and gas wars within the global chess game has seen approximately 10 or 20 times more innocent people killed than the combatants that fight the wars. Each and every time the general public are lied to and the politicians send our young off spring to fight their pathetic battles under the flag of false indoctrination that they are fighting for a good cause. Then out of the misery big profits are made by the elitists that pull the damn strings.

There is enough for everybody on this world of ours we got to learn to share it, live together in peace and look after our inheritance as sensible beings also learn not to be selfish. Greed is our real problem the worst human related trait.

albertacowpoke

at 17:41 on August 20th, 2009

Yeah we all need to stop dreaming and live in an illusion. Those that have the power will grab what they can. The US definitely wants control of some of the arctic and need it more than Russia.

Russian is ready to export energy to China, as is Canada. The US is an energy importing nation. It consumes more than it has.

Paschen and Sara, just one simple point. 90% of the Canadian population lives close to the United States border. Europe could only defend us with missiles. Without going through a whole estimate process, I think the answer is clear.

If the doomsday scenario comes to pass as Passion predicts, then I ask myself why are we spending money on the United Nations. That body is supposed to be an arbitrator for world peace. Yet with the veto system for the permanent security council membera it is totally ineffective..

Paschen

at 23:58 on August 20th, 2009

ACP, I do not disagree with you, only one point here I have trouble seeing working effectively and that would be the UNO.

Why, well we have five veto powers that have been messing the UN up in a big way, see Israel/Palestine or Sri Lanka or even Tibet...

Once we reformed the UN and rid our self's of the veto powers, then maybe the UN will work effectively.

BTW, Greenland is part of Europe and so is Island and the French Island of Saint Michaelon is right by Canada.

158

at 18:42 on August 20th, 2009

I agree Russia is an important country and Canada and the US should develop a good relationship with them.

And there needs to be an international agreeement on the arctic.

sara star

at 18:54 on August 20th, 2009

We hope to reach that through the UN. The mapping hasn't even started though, because robotic probes still need to be built. I read somewhere that Russia is already doing it on their own.... wouldn't surprise me.

Then the fight will be with the US, as it intends to infringe on Canada's sovereign waters.

During the polar summit last year in Greenland, all agreed that international law would prevail, and each promised to conduct themselves accordingly while mapping each country's extended continental shelf. This mapping is being steered by Halifax based geologist Jacob Verhoef. A successful submission is expected by 2013, to the UN. The robotic probes that will survey the ocean floor are being built by a BC company and the surveys are expected to begin next year.

Hopefully by then we won't be consuming as much oil, though I can't say the same with China.