Figure 2. Rasmussen Pennsylvania Polling / Graphs by Politisite.com

Politisite Political Projections : Pennsylvania

Web Posted on April 21, 2008

By Albert N. Milliron, Chief Political Correspondent,

Iron Mill Interactive Media, Inc / Politisite.com

Politisite uses a Trending / Momentum Model in determining possible outcomes of elections.

Trends: One or two data points doesn’t make a trend. The trend is your Friend and should always be used in analysis of possible outcomes. Had pollsters considered trending in New Hampshire, they probably would have had the numbers correctly. The problem is that they use data that is a day or two old and they give percentages based on the numbers. Trend lines are not used. Real Clear Politics has trend lines below the polls so one can see how the candidate is moving. You can also use these graphs to gauge where a candidate will be on election day. When I invest in the stock market trend lines are part of what I use. I like momentum. It is very difficult to stop a rolling train. When things are in motion, they will continue to stay in motion unless there is proper resistance. This can be immediate resistance which takes more power (a Major News Story) or gradient resistance which causes things to stop, like a rolling ball.

The Polls Trends  from Pennsylvannia

 

Figure 1. Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Polling / Graphs by Politisite.com

 

 

Figure 2. Rasmussen Pennsylvania Polling / Graphs by Politisite.com

 

 

Figure 3. Stategic Vision Pennsylvania Polling / Graphs by Politisite.com

 

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