Football politics and the law of averages

by YankeeJim | September 17, 2010 at 04:47 am

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The Tea Party has proven that it can win some contests and post some candidates early in the season. It could be like a football team that wins in the preseason. Is that indicative of the team’s ability to win in the regular season?

Moreover, the comparison might be more like the NFC, AFC, and Arena Football whereas the NFC and AFC are akin to Republicans and Democrats and the Tea Party akin to the Arena league. The best Arena league team might be able to beat some of the worst teams in the National Football League, but that does not put the Arena League on par with the NFL.

“the law of large numbers may mean that if a team's performance early in a season does not reflect their relative strength compared to others in the league, the team's performance will lead to a final record closer to their true strength.”

The Tea Party’s success proves that there is a constituency that is largely unsatisfied by the Republicans and Democrats. Its appeal appears to be more conservative and Republican leaning than Democrats. Therefore, it is more divisive and hurtful to Republicans than to Democrats. It is an American distraction that both parties need to address to be able to field a governing team.

“The 'tea party' gears up for 2012

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Eye on 2012: The potential candidates

The 2010 midterm elections are almost over, and lips have already started wagging over who the potential Republican presidential candidates may be in 2012.

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By Karen Tumulty

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But in a world where the most careful plans can be rendered obsolete by a Sarah Palin tweet (see: Primary, Delaware), many in the party have begun to question whether those old, pre-"tea party" rules still apply.

So as the would-be 2012 GOP presidential candidates are salivating at what they see as President Obama's growing vulnerabilities, they are also reassessing their assumptions about what it will take to win.

"The only two things more reactive than politicians running for president are rabbits and quail," said strategist John Weaver, who helped reengineer Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) from insurgent in 2000 to establishment pick in 2008.

Weaver warned, however, that "many of the people looking to run for president will take a crash course in tea party marketing 101 and will ultimately hurt themselves."

One example of this, he said, was former House speaker Newt Gingrich's declaration that Obama is exhibiting "Kenyan, anti-colonial behavior."

Gingrich was describing an essay he had read in Forbes magazine, suggesting that Obama's African father - although he was absent through the future president's childhood - might have influenced his worldview.

But his comments also seemed to indulge the right-wing myths about Obama's citizenship and conspiracy theories questioning his loyalties.

The new force within the Republican Party is contemptuous of safe, pragmatic calculations for winning swing voters and offers no forgiveness for political compromises and ideological inconsistencies. Saying you're for smaller government, for instance, and then backing the bailout of Wall Street banks.

"There's going to be an absolute stress on 'I.P.' - ideological purity," predicted Ken Duberstein, a Reagan White House chief of staff who is a lobbyist.”