Gallup Daily: Race Stabilizes With McCain Up by Two

by politisite | September 16, 2008 at 08:29 am | 59 views | add comment | 0 recommendations

By Albert N. Milliron, Editor, Politisite.com, Iron Mill Interactive Media, Inc.

The McCain campaign has has been up in 7 of the last 9 National polls. Only two are outside of the margin of error where he was up by 4%. The rest of the polls still show a virtual dead heat. In the previous election season the Democratic Nominee was up by over 10% points 60 days out from the election.

In three of the Battle Ground States, McCain has pulled ahead: Ohio 2.4% 20 EV, Florida 6.3% 27 EV, and Missiouri 6.6% 11 EV. Obama Maintains a lead in PA 21 EV, MI 17 EV, WI 11 EV, NH 4 EV, and NM 5 EV. McCain 58 EV vs. Obama 58 EV a Dead heat even in the Electorial college. For the first time in this election cycle, John McCain has moved ahead in the Electorial College 227 to Obama 207 While this sounds impressive, it takes 270 electorial Votes to win the Presidency. Right now there are 104 EV that could go either way.

The Momentium is on McCain's Side. Expect a break out by one of the candidates following the first Presidential debate.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Voter preferences in the race for president are unchanged from where they stood over the weekend. John McCain still edges out Barack Obama, 47% to 45%, according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Sept. 12-14.

While today's two percentage point advantage for McCain is not statistically significant, McCain's persistent two-point advantage across the three most recent Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports suggests he does hold a real, albeit slight, lead over Obama. It also suggests the race may be stabilizing at this highly competitive level after the tapering off of some, but not all, of McCain's post-convention bounce.

McCain had trailed Obama by eight points around the close of the Democratic National Convention, but then moved into a five-point lead right after the Republican National Convention. The structure of the race is now slightly more favorable for McCain than it was prior to the entire convention period, when Obama typically led McCain by one or two points. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

The percentage of undecided voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking has ranged from 6% to 8% for more than a week. This is noticeably lower than the 9% to 11% undecided seen in mid-August, just prior to the convention period.

Numerically, it appears that much of this shrinkage has benefitted McCain. For instance, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 20-22, the three-day period prior to Obama announcing Joe Biden as his running mate, Obama led by two points, 46% to 44%, with 10% undecided. Support for Obama is now one point lower while support for McCain three points higher. At the same time, the percentage of undecided voters has slipped from 10% to 8%. -- Lydia Saad

(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)